Are we human or are we dancer mafia (game over, Dancers win!)

[madge]

I just started trying to re-assemble my reads list and I'm just upset because this calls into question wam - is wam scum rolecop? this now becomes more possible because of the possibility of scum!wam wanting to clear town!bessie.

Seven, I am not joking when I say I am really upset at this development. I should have expected it, tbh, so shame on me, but I'm upset. I put a lot of brain cycles into the idea of bessie having a scum result of some sort and that has impacted my reads of you and wam and literally everyone else (e.g. scum!wam wouldn't put scum!thea on his clears list while trying to save scum!bessie, but maybe if bessie is town he would do it as a gambit). I look at my little PoE list down there and it's so poisoned by my confirmation bias.

You're a fucking gifted player who can read bessie as town or scum based on a comma vs semicolon, I'm sure, but I CAN'T and I look at claims and shit and here you are just laughing at me. (I know you're not actually laughing at me, you have your process, but right now fuck your process, I have my process and it's ruined).

I don't know what I'm going to do. I'm not voting for an extension, I am so sick of today and I am really quite keen on the idea of having it over and done with and maybe either me or Seven will be dead tomorrow.

My PoE:
Thea - town
Fred - town?
Wam - town?
Seven - town?
Moody - ?
Somi/Santy - ?
JC - ?
Bessie - ?

Why is thea confident town while Wam and Seven are just town?
Dont really get why Seven gambiting or whatever affects your wam read here

Wam could be lying about claim which would put 7 into question. I think scum wam wouldn't lie about Thea but would lie about 7.

Note again I don't think WAm is scum

Phone post before bed, toodles

[Seven]

Why would he want to clear town!bessie?

@Madge, I'm curious about this.

Credit on flip, "if wam was scum he could have let us misyeet a townie" kinda thing. I don't think this is likely at all but it's in the realm of possibility

It doesn't seem in the realm of possibility to me. Why not just stay silent, allow me to miselim bessie and then allow town to miselim me tomorrow, saving his claim for endgame?

[Santygrass]

Thank you, these are feasible.

However, the probability that Wam was targeted by a redirector N1 is 12.5%. This is lower if there are less than 3 mafia. A bus-driven Seven cannot be discounted. However, given the flipped PRs and the fact that VT Cop inherently has a balancing mechanism (false positives from PRs), it is unlikely to exist in this setup. Logic dictates that I am unlikely scum, and therefore your vote is illogical. Is it that you are emotionally tied to it?

From a meta-setup perspective, how likely or often does scum not have a counter to town investigatives here?

Im asking because I know f.e. in MU are pretty strong (the results are kinda true always and no possibility to mess much with them) , but f.e. in my community if there is a cop is expected for scum to have *some* sort lf counter measure

I keep having to go back and edit my posts with "I think" so that bessie and others are able to distinguish when I am clearly stating an opinion from a known fact.

I think scum has 1-2 PRs. I do not think they are result-manipulating roles. I have an idea of what one might be, but it's best left unsaid at the moment.

What is 'f.e'? Also what's your home site btw?

Gotcha.

f.e = For example

My homesite is Fanficslandia (originally Mafialandia but it died and we all moved there) . Its a spanish fanfiction forum that has a subforum for us mafia people

[madge]

I have awful news: I'm no longer giving my husband a lift at deadline, I will instead be at work, so I will actually be able to sit through the whole cursed thing all over again how about that extension?

I broadly agree with Seven's approach. I am much more reluctant to vote bessie off first:

@Seven, can you clarify for me, using crayons if needed, if there is any reason to think bessie is scummier than anyone else that is related to a game mechanic? or is it just reads based? because if it's reads-based, moody, somi/santy and quite frankly you both feel scummier to me. in particular ssanty and moody were alts to town wagons, which is a vaguely objective scumminess indicator.

I'm not opposed to yeeting bessie in principal but I'm just so messed up with the confbias that I think I'm overcorrecting in the other direction. She hasn't done anything particularly scummy imo but she never does anything scummy even as scum.

bless you, pupper, for having such a firm meta. we are truly twin souls.

It all comes down to this:

I agreed with EGW's point that Glue's emergent post had a highly suspect timing, his content since may do something to temper that, but I'm not recalling much to do that. Heury's been pure cotton candy. JC is probably the least votable of the votables, when he actually puts up some more posts I'll have an actual read.

I think JC has actually posted more than Heury, but maybe I'm nitpicking. Still, seems like a slightly odd distinction

If Somi/Moody/JC were the scum team, how likely do you think it is that somi would make this post? In this post, somi is saying it's weird that moody has JC as more null than heury, when JC has posted more. In other words, it would be calling to attention a potential connection between one of his partners and the other. I believe it is unlikely that scum!somi would do this, particularly at this point in the game. Scum distance from one another, sure, but on superficial things. This would be going beyond the superficial and potentially directly outting both of his partners.

The inverse of the percent chance you believe Somi would make this post in a Somi/Moody/JC world is the percent chance bessie is scum. If Somi/Moody/JC are not the team, then either bessie must be scum in all scenarios (since the PoE is among those 4) OR there is a misstep somewhere among the town reads that lead to this PoE (i.e. there actually is a scum among wam/seven/thea/madge/fred). Eliminating her will either tell us we are wrong about the town group or support the PoE as it stands.

OK, I think I get what you're saying. I think it's moot tho because like you said we probably have 4 yeets up our sleeve to get 3 scum. I still prefer Somi or moody but I agree it's much of a muchness and I'll vote whoever at this point particularly if we get yeet before end of the day lol

[madge]

@Madge, I'm curious about this.

Credit on flip, "if wam was scum he could have let us misyeet a townie" kinda thing. I don't think this is likely at all but it's in the realm of possibility

It doesn't seem in the realm of possibility to me. Why not just stay silent, allow me to miselim bessie and then allow town to miselim me tomorrow, saving his claim for endgame?

I agree, this is why I framed this whole thing as my paranoid conspiracy theory

[Seven]

Gotcha.

f.e = For example

My homesite is Fanficslandia (originally Mafialandia but it died and we all moved there) . Its a spanish fanfiction forum that has a subforum for us mafia people

Interesting! For some ramenchef lore: EGW, Mak, Adum, and I all stem from a site called Smashboards (forum for smashbros). Everyone else here stems from the original 'xkcd' site, a forum dedicated to the xkcd webcomic. Both of these also had subforums for mafia/other games. The xkcd site was shut down due to being hacked, many of the xkcders came to Smashboards as we had previously had a cross-community game and were in contact. After some time, this forum was made, the mafia forum on Smashboards died out and those of us remaining started playing here.

Let me know when you get to my big post. I think the team should be bessie/Moody/JC from your perspective.

[Santygrass]

Credit on flip, "if wam was scum he could have let us misyeet a townie" kinda thing. I don't think this is likely at all but it's in the realm of possibility

It doesn't seem in the realm of possibility to me. Why not just stay silent, allow me to miselim bessie and then allow town to miselim me tomorrow, saving his claim for endgame?

I agree, this is why I framed this whole thing as my paranoid conspiracy theory

I only think Wam is scum in worlds where Seven or Thea ate also scum. Otherwise it doesnt make much sense to claim that way imo . But Wam is towny regardless

[Seven]

OK, I think I get what you're saying. I think it's moot tho because like you said we probably have 4 yeets up our sleeve to get 3 scum. I still prefer Somi or moody but I agree it's much of a muchness and I'll vote whoever at this point particularly if we get yeet before end of the day lol

What percent chance would you personally give to Somi having made that post in a scum!Somi/Moody/JC world?

[Santygrass]

Gotcha.

f.e = For example

My homesite is Fanficslandia (originally Mafialandia but it died and we all moved there) . Its a spanish fanfiction forum that has a subforum for us mafia people

Interesting! For some ramenchef lore: EGW, Mak, Adum, and I all stem from a site called Smashboards (forum for smashbros). Everyone else here stems from the original 'xkcd' site, a forum dedicated to the xkcd webcomic. Both of these also had subforums for mafia/other games. The xkcd site was shut down due to being hacked, many of the xkcders came to Smashboards as we had previously had a cross-community game and were in contact. After some time, this forum was made, the mafia forum on Smashboards died out and those of us remaining started playing here.

Let me know when you get to my big post. I think the team should be bessie/Moody/JC from your perspective.

I'll let you know!
I was at Moody + 2 in JC/bessie/Madge . But have to reassess taking into account moody slip hasnt that much strenght but bonking away my confbias is hard. Have to read your reasoning on Madge in detail.
But my main issue is that if I think that in the group of 2 there is only 1 scum, is pretty likely that Im doing a misclear thet possibly implies one more missclear and being game losing (some of those cases being in the pool of Fred/you/Thea. From also pairing stuff it could be the hell world of Wam+ one in thea/you . But its not something I'll consider until we are at LyLo or something, because I agree town!wam most likely just dies next night)

[Santygrass]

Also for the lore part, I think it makes sense seeing the difference in posting styles/activity from Mak/EGW/you haha.

I didnt said it, but oh wow was it a welcome change seeing Mak string of posts and questions, game was feeling super stale for me

[Makhaira]

The E isn't the reason why I don't believe it to be AtE.

enlighten me

An appeal to emotion is attempting to sway others by provoking an emotional reaction. Using a word that describes an emotional state is not an emotional appeal in itself. It could be used to make one, however. For example:

"It aggravated me when bessie ate my chocolate bar" vs "I am disgusted by the recent rise of dog- and cat-eating immigrants! Are you with me my fellow Americans!?"

I see AtE as a little broader than that atleast for in-game purposes/how I interpret it is meant in common mafia parlance

I see AtE as also encompassing a player stating they they experienced or are experiencing a particular emotional state in reaction to new information, an accusation, or out of game stimuli that is impacting their ability to play. I believe implicit to this kind of statement is a suggestion by the player that said emotional state they are experiencing is bona fide, which suggests they are coming from an "uninformed" PoV and are experience a genuine reaction of surprise, indignation, excitement, etc. The assumption made here is that a scum player would not genuinely experience such emotions because of their informed status and thus would have to fabricate an emotional reaction in order to emulate a town PoV. Here, you represented you had a genuine emotional reaction to something that naturally follows from a purported town PR claim PoV. This did not actually happen by your own admission and you fabricated having an emotional reaction to "new information" you would have obtained from your claimed town PoV KNOWING that falsifying this emotional reaction would strengthen the appeal of your claim for this very reason. Being willing to falsify perspective of town PoV even when town aligned is a faustian bargain in that future attempts to communicate such genuine "updating" will be poisoned by your admission that you have the capacity and will to fabricate such reactions for to bolster claim credibility

This is really a meta debate tho so I won't push it further, just wanted to clarify my view on this

[Makhaira]

No idea how that smiley got in there, I must have accidentally hit it while touch scrolling on my phone and I didn't see it, don't read into it it was a complete accident

[Theallieza]

I just started trying to re-assemble my reads list and I'm just upset because this calls into question wam - is wam scum rolecop? this now becomes more possible because of the possibility of scum!wam wanting to clear town!bessie.

I don't think scum!Wam gains a lot by clearing Town bessie. Like, if both bessie and Seven are Town, the best thing for scum!Wam to do is just shut up and let Town kill each other.

[Makhaira]

Wam and Seven's claims directly contradict each other. No way both can be telling the truth. I can verify Wam at least is telling the truth about his result on me. Based on this, Seven seemed to know that Wam had a result on him, and doesn't seem to be pushing back against Wam contradicting him, so I think the most likely conclusion and the most consistent with Seven's meta in particular is that Seven is lying Town.

I don't think that Wam is likely to be scum here, though I did seem him claim a clear on someone who was Town as mafia before (Stellaris, I think it was).

I don't care for bessie's reaction to this and will need to spend some time rereading her. If she is scum it has been a long while since she has snowed me so completely, but I suppose I can't rule it out.

How does town!Seven (who is also a VT in this world) know for sure that Wam is town that town!Wam has confirmation that Seven is in fact town at the point Seven made the linked post?

Would you like an answer, or do you specifically want it from Thea?

I would like to hear what Thea comes up with first but you can give your answer after

[Makhaira]

Is Godfather or roles that could mess with an investigative result common here or not?

Since I saw mentioned that game was non bastard I wasnt taking them into account but now questioning myself since godfather was mentioned as a possibility wowee

do you consider godfather or functional equivalents that return opposite boolean results to a straightforward cop variant to be bastard and if so why?

Bastard definition is everything that makes the host lie to you. So yeah, those are bastard (though low level imo) .

In MU they are shunned and disliked, but in FFL (my home community) are super common haha~

given your definition I understand your perspective. I'm not sure I agree with the definition but that's a nuanced meta debate we don't need to get into here

[Makhaira]

Is Mak a slot that is scary lategame ? As in, how likely was Mak a fearkill ? (I dont think it wasnt the case, but dont have the meta to be sure and affirm it lol)

being real with you, if anyone in this game answered this question with "no" then I would highly doubt their sincerity as arrogant and self serving of a statement that might seem

but relatedly

I've seen him play as scum. Swiss/Fonti level essentially.

Do you understand the gravity of this statement and if so please explain it in your own words

I have an elite town game, and a pretty good town game that gets damaged because of how common is to fearmonger me. Basically people who know how I wolf always have the thought/feeling of 'wolf!santy would be able to do this' no matter how towny I am.

In S9 champs I randed wolf, and ended up being the 1 vote to advance there to finale. So even though I dont know who Seven is talking about, Im infering those are pretty hard to catch wolves

bolded is clearly typod, which side are you saying you are elite at and which are you saying is "good" but damaged by "how common it is to fear monger [you]"

[JC_DADDY25]

Wam
Thea
Bessie
Moody
Madge
Fred
Seven
Santy

Wha
Why Im at the bottom? And why are you voting Seven and not me ?

So, I've felt this slot belonged on the bottom since last day phase, and had my vote there. Thing is, I also feel Seven is scum and feel the solve is there.

I wouldn't mind switching the vote to you though.

[Santygrass]

being real with you, if anyone in this game answered this question with "no" then I would highly doubt their sincerity as arrogant and self serving of a statement that might seem

but relatedly

Do you understand the gravity of this statement and if so please explain it in your own words

I have an elite town game, and a pretty good town game that gets damaged because of how common is to fearmonger me. Basically people who know how I wolf always have the thought/feeling of 'wolf!santy would be able to do this' no matter how towny I am.

In S9 champs I randed wolf, and ended up being the 1 vote to advance there to finale. So even though I dont know who Seven is talking about, Im infering those are pretty hard to catch wolves

bolded is clearly typod, which side are you saying you are elite at and which are you saying is "good" but damaged by "how common it is to fear monger [you]"

Oops sorry I skill issued my phrasing. Elite wolf game is what I meant to say

[Santygrass]

Wam
Thea
Bessie
Moody
Madge
Fred
Seven
Santy

Wha
Why Im at the bottom? And why are you voting Seven and not me ?

So, I've felt this slot belonged on the bottom since last day phase, and had my vote there. Thing is, I also feel Seven is scum and feel the solve is there.

I wouldn't mind switching the vote to you though.

Still doesnt answer my question. Did you vote Seven first because Im a sub ?
And what last phase did you make think that? None of the events from today, or what I did had made you reconsider? (As in, I feel like you came into the day with a conclussion already and are not looking to reassess on it or absorb new information into your solve)

[Makhaira]

moody is weirdly non-committal and like pre making excuses for inactivity at a crucial time ugh

JCs activity surge makes my blood run cold

freddino is exceptionally good at fake self deprecation if hes scum

but yeah I still need to know why this isn't seven/bessie wagons only

Hi Mak!! Glad to see you here.
What do you mean with bolded?
Also not sure how I interpret 'making blood run cold' means for JC haha

re: moody it was this post that caused my reaction in the post of mine you're quoting

BTW, don't get spoiled by this level of posting. During the week I only have a few hours in the evening after I get home from work.

Re: JC, I have pretty much never seen JC do anything other than coast and basically be a background character and he was town in both games (atleast I'm pretty sure I've played with him twice). This surge in activity feels like a distinct departure from that meta and makes be very afraid he is trying to play a more active role now suddenly as a result of being a wolf and knowing this is a crucial stage of the game

[Santygrass]

I have an elite town game, and a pretty good town game that gets damaged because of how common is to fearmonger me. Basically people who know how I wolf always have the thought/feeling of 'wolf!santy would be able to do this' no matter how towny I am.

In S9 champs I randed wolf, and ended up being the 1 vote to advance there to finale. So even though I dont know who Seven is talking about, Im infering those are pretty hard to catch wolves

bolded is clearly typod, which side are you saying you are elite at and which are you saying is "good" but damaged by "how common it is to fear monger [you]"

Oops sorry I skill issued my phrasing. Elite wolf game is what I meant to say

An example would be last champs semis this year. I subbed into a sussed slot as town, and had nailed two wolves back to back, with a perfect record on EoD for 3 days, and still people felt like it was possible I could be bussing.
Is p hard for me to get a clear with people who know how I wolf

[Wam]

Sorry santy been busy so not in thread as much as usual!

I have about 4 hours left awake before deadline so any questions shout.

Still think JC is the best play odds wise.

My paranoia is worrying my town Bessie read is wrong but that's a problem for future days.

[Makhaira]

@Seven do you legitimately believe it would be dishonorable to truthfully tell the other players that one was experiencing a serious life event that impacts their ability to be present at crucial game moments as scum, but that doing so as town is completely fine?

Relatedly, do you believe somi seeking replacement at this juncture of the game with no clear provided reason to be dishonorable? And if so does your position depend on somi's alignment?

[Makhaira]

bolded is clearly typod, which side are you saying you are elite at and which are you saying is "good" but damaged by "how common it is to fear monger [you]"

Oops sorry I skill issued my phrasing. Elite wolf game is what I meant to say


An example would be last champs semis this year. I subbed into a sussed slot as town, and had nailed two wolves back to back, with a perfect record on EoD for 3 days, and still people felt like it was possible I could be bussing.
Is p hard for me to get a clear with people who know how I wolf

thank you for clarifying

[Theallieza]

Wam
Thea
Bessie
Moody
Madge
Fred
Seven
Santy

Interesting, thanks.



So I've been piecing together everyone's reads today. Reading down the column will give how that player feels about everyone else. Reading across the row will give how that player is being read. I don't have full reads from Fred or bessie yet since they seem to be playing chicken with their reads for some reason that I do not understand. Anyway. Red is strong scum, orange is scum lean, yellow town lean, green strong town.

I think it is very interesting that there's a couple players who have such wildly different reads on them. Fred probably being the most polarized player with a couple of strong scumreads and a couple strong townreads. Seven is similarly polarized.

JC and moody are being read as scum by basically everyone.

bessie, moody, and JC all have very similar scumreads. Thea, Wam, Seven, Santy, Madge all have fairy similar ones. What I've gathered from Fred tends to align with the latter group.

I think it is unlikely that this split perfectly divides Town and scum. There might be one bussing scum committed to going deep. Presumably Santy in that case.