Are we human or are we dancer mafia (game over, Dancers win!)

[madge]

Four hours from deadline and only one page to catch up on? Rejoice!

I saw somi wants a replacement, uh, do you think we'll get one? Not to be all ME ME ME ME ME ME ME, but I kind of replaced in to Swiss's spot pre-game because y'all seemed kinda desperate. A Madge replacement is kinda scraping the bottom of the barrel y'know.

I'm also thinking through Thea's case a little bit and t he idea of it being a Somi/7/EGW triad falls a bit flat given that EGW is uncc'd at this point. I'm wondering if I was too trusting? But idk, in any event, Thea did make an honest case and I don't see scum doing it to such an extent (maybe this is my bias, i have never gone to that much effort for a read ever as any alignment lol).

Seven being desperate to find an excuse to read EGW as scum despite the claim is weird. Let's grant that the tree stumper is a scum power. Why tree-stump your NK target? It's galaxy brain shit. You've got a confirmed townie out there who could lead town, Mak is no slouch (like, it's not like you targeted me with the NK and tree stump, that would be my WORST NIGHTMARE), it's too unpredictable and too out of scum's control. The idea of a mafia kill also stumping is very interesting, but makes the plan even more convoluted because imagine if scum flips with the role "mafia tree-stump killer" or whatever and then EGW is an easy yeet the next day. I'm just.... there's so many assumptions you're making here, and they seem to be couched in EGW being scum, rather than the investigation creating a scum read. if that makes sense?

@Seven did you not open my spoilers? Psychic is just a cop right? I assume Mak didn't have a result to share or he'd have shared it.

Readslist with minor changes from last time:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Townie: Fred, Thea (I don't think scum would have gone to all that work with that list and defending it; unless they're some sort of indie who really needs to get a sole win),
Neutral: Wam, Bessie, Moody* (no particular oder)
Voteable: Seven (moved to thinking he's scummy) Somi (will give us info), JC, Heury*

*heury and moody are marginally more scummy than their colocataires due to being alts to a town wagon

Non-Vibes, Facts, Extra Firm Reads:
Mak - conftown, will sheep (would only be reluctant to vote Fred/Thea if told, and even then as long as Mak seems to have thought about it and isn't just doing it on a whim I would prob do it)
EGW - town due to no counterclaim and non-bastard game

Conditional reads: If Somi flips scum then Thea is almost certainly town (because if Thea was Somi's scummate he wouldn't try to specifically dig up this point), and Seven is a sliver more likely to be scum.

My vote: At the end of the day I'm 100% committed to what Mak tells me to do. If they don't give a definitive ruling I'll vote amongst Somi, JC, Heury.

Question to others with better knowledge of Mak's schedule/style/etc: do you think I'm likely to get a vote-instruction from Mak? At the moment I'm inclined to vote Heury.

I've nailed down my schedule for today and I think I can post once in the 10 minutes before deadline, just enough to change my vote, probably not enough to read. But I'll be MIA for about 20-30 minutes of the last hour.

[moody7277]

Vote moody

Seven that convincing, or is this your idea of a {somi, Seven, moody} team?

[Seven]

Vote: moody

[heuristically_alone]

Moody nor Somi are my first choice, but looks like it'll be one of us tonight. leaning on wanting to vote moody due to my early town read on Somi, but I'll do a re-read of them both and drop a vote. I also suspect Mafia might not push for me and hope town will yeet me on their own, but if one person on me were mafia, most likely would be moody.

[EGW]

Question to others with better knowledge of Mak's schedule/style/etc: do you think I'm likely to get a vote-instruction from Mak? At the moment I'm inclined to vote Heury.

Mak plays WoW / Raids consistently. He's pretty busy, and works alot. I forget the actual schedule though. Also Somi did not replace out, he said he was considering it.

[EGW]

I am curious what you are thinking at this moment, Thea.

[madge]

yeah i was thinking somi might not be able to actually find a replacement, so he'll either limp along to the end of the game (yuck) or be modkilled and flip either way. trying to htink how that should affect my voting situation if Mak doesn't give me instructions

[JC_DADDY25]

Quick post so you don't think I died or something

Somi was expecting EGW to scumread Seven back. But EGW didn't. But Somi didn't read what actually happened in the thread before he posted. He made his post based on what he assumed would happen.

My guy, I have literally vanished into thin air lately because it's either that or go even more into the red on sleep deprivation, that's just how well I can read stuff. I'm also not sure why Seven would give a heads up in scum chat instead of letting his mates react more naturally to the radical strategy of getting in an argument with EGW.
Anyway, if you're gonna elim me for information let me know, I was about to ask adum for a sub but if I'm dead soon anyway I'm not gonna bother him.

Oh, that reminds me, how’s that catch up coming along @somitomi?

It isn't, because yesterday evening I wasn't anywhere near the computer that has my notes. Which is annoying because I think there is something to be gleamed from that EoD scramble. Purely based on information gathering a Heury elim might be the most fruitful today, since they were the alternative wagon.

He was going to ask to sub out, but won't if he's going to be elimmed.

[madge]

here's my pros and cons for what to do about somi in each of the 6 likely situations.

****i have not included the obvious "yay vote off scum" / "boo modkill town", this is only the externalities****

town!somi
limp along forever:
pros: none
cons: will distract from actual scum, reads probably won't be good, might not be able to vote in a timely manner

vote off now:
pros: no more distractions, "just" a miselim, can analyse wagon
cons: none

modkill later
pros: no more distractions
cons: no wagon to analyse, extra town miselim

scum!somi
limp along forever:
pros: none
cons: can be reluctant to vote off a limp-alonger when there's scummy players

vote off now:
pros: can analyse wagon
cons: none

modkill later:
pros: bonus scum elim
cons: none

CONCLUSION: limp along forever is bad in all cases. voting off now is good in all cases. modkill is overall positive.

and in a fit of symmetry, a scum limping along forever is worse, and a town being voted off now is worse. so, if somi is town, the good option is worse and the bad option is better, and if somi is scum then the good option is better and the bad option is worse.

I think I've kinda confused myself here. But I am pretty sure that if somi can't find a replacement then limp along is very, very bad. given somi hasn't asked for a replacement I'm not sure what I just wasted ten minutes of my workday thinking through, but here we are.

provisionally, i think if there's an issue finding a replacement, I'd rather vote than get a modkill, but it's really up in the air. i definitely don't want to let poor somi linger until the end of the game unless we have a good and compelling scum candidate each day (i.e. right now we have no good compelling scum candidate, so if we'd spent 3-4 days waiting for a replacement already, i would be inclined to vote somi)

[Seven]

I’m able to get a replacement if needed.

[madge]

oh well then that was pointless of me

[AdumbroDeus]

Vote count 7
2. Wam - 0:
3. Bessie - 0:
4. heuristically_alone - 3: Wam, moody7277, Freddino18
6. Madge - 0:
7. Seven - 0:
8. Theallieza - 0:
9. somitomi - 2: EGW, JC_DADDY25
10. Freddino18 - 0:
11. moody7277 - 2: Theallieza, Seven
12. JC_DADDY25 - 0:
13. EGW - 0:

Not voting: Madge, Somitomi, Bessie, heuristically_alone

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 ends at 12 am on friday September 13th est!

[Freddino18]

Voting Heury because they have the highest scum total on my reads amongst the current candidates. Posting may be spotty before deadline.

[bessie]

Quick daily bark I got stuck at work.

@bessie only the first few pages of the game (or rather the first few posts each player makes) and the EoDs are important to me.

Interesting is that because you feel everything you need to solve the game is contained in that sample?

Bessie, please. I'm off for the night. Eliminate before the other half of the globe goes to sleep tomorrow, while they are in thread.

I’m sorry Seven but there was just no way for me to check the thread at work today.
Wam knows what this means: Today was the Management Review Meeting.

Actually before I go, stop bugging Fred for his notes. There is nothing scummy about not wanting to post them. They're his.

Agree with this, and if anyone pushes too hard I might even consider it fishing.

Going by your list of me, Somi, and Huery...Somi seems like the best way to go here.

I know I'm not scum, so by process of elimination that leaves the other two and you're not known to bus a teammate -- also factor in your comment that you'd only be willing to reevaluate your read on the people on your town list if Heury comes back town -- that leaves Somi and someone on your town list.

Is your vote for somitomi because you have a scum read on him, or ... why? I am having trouble parsing this comment.

I'm actually worried about the game I do end up being mafia, I may actually sound coherent.

I'm shocked Bessie didn't comment on this.

Bessie doesn't have a tunnel this game.

Interesting, as I am more often scum read for tunneling than for not tunneling.

I was thinking the same thing. You're, right Bessie. Really is interesting.
VOTE: Bessie

I’m shocked heury isn’t reading my posts.
Can you perhaps provide your reason for voting for me? I see your quotes but not your reason.

Seven/Mak > Bessie > Fred > Thea > George > Madge > Wam > Moody. I'd only look in this group if Heury flips town.

Is the top of your town to scum list bunched up, or do you have some percentage feeling that the stumping role is scum or George is lying despite not being counterclaimed?

I don't think he's lying about the role, it's just not a factor in how I am reading him.

Noting this because I noted something related yesterday and might want to come back to it.

Does that change your bessie read?

Wow I'm blind
UNVOTE

Like really? The JC thing was the only reason you were voting for me? It’s like you skimmed the thread looking for a flash reason to vote for me and why did you even comment on the other quote like it was supporting evidence, if it apparently was not significant at all considering how quickly you unvoted?


Vote: Heury

bessie's play isn't hitting of any of the beats I associate with her post-Hari meta. bessie was relentless in her questioning of me when were partners in Baldur's gate. If moody is mafia, I think it is unlikely she is as she eased up on him when he gave her a somewhat satisfactory answer. My initial town read of her, and the thing that is still the strongest to me, comes from her vote count analysis. In particular, her speculation about my conformity confirmation strikes me as extremely town-indicative, especially because she never pursued it. Scum-bessie is stronger in her attempt to latch onto something to push.

I’m confused. I don’t do vote count analysis.


I will be here until deadline. By here I mean home and available while doing household duties.

[Seven]

Confirmation analysis I mean.

[Seven]

@bessie only the first few pages of the game (or rather the first few posts each player makes) and the EoDs are important to me.

Interesting is that because you feel everything you need to solve the game is contained in that sample?

Yes.

[Theallieza]

Vote somitomi

[madge]

i'm only going to be reliable for voting for another 45 minutes, at which point i'll vote Heury i guess :/

[madge]

ninja'd. okay, that makes two of my townreads on one wagon. i might vote for somi. omg. =/

c'mon mak tell me what to do

[AdumbroDeus]

Vote count 8
2. Wam - 0:
3. Bessie - 0:
4. heuristically_alone - 4: Wam, moody7277, Freddino18, Bessie
6. Madge - 0:
7. Seven - 0:
8. Theallieza - 0:
9. somitomi - 3: EGW, JC_DADDY25, Theallieza
10. Freddino18 - 0:
11. moody7277 - 1: Seven
12. JC_DADDY25 - 0:
13. EGW - 0:

Not voting: Madge, Somitomi, heuristically_alone

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 ends at 12 am on friday September 13th est!

[bessie]

still doing some re-reading sorry yall should have more tomorrow night

I too am very interested in your opinion and would give it weight in my own analysis.

[Theallieza]

Deadline in a little over an hour

[Freddino18]

I'm seeing enough on Heury that I will stand firm unless it results in a no-elim. I will be available for EOD

[moody7277]

As of now, heury is the only wagon I'm happy with.

[Seven]

Vote: somitomi