Are we human or are we dancer mafia (game over, Dancers win!)

[Wam]

Makes sense would wonder about unconscious bias as you can't forget the claim but think that's a rabbit hole we don't need to go down.

[heuristically_alone]

time=1666515981 user_id=64]

I'm actually worried about the game I do end up being mafia, I may actually sound coherent.

I'm shocked Bessie didn't comment on this.

Interesting, as I am more often scum read for tunneling than for not tunneling.

I was thinking the same thing. You're, right Bessie. Really is interesting.
VOTE: Bessie

Bessie did comment on that JC post

I'm actually worried about the game I do end up being mafia, I may actually sound coherent.

Did JC just join the “would I post like this as scum” club?? -1
bessie birthday balloon.png

Does that change your bessie read?

Wow I'm blind
UNVOTE

[Theallieza]

Thanks Thea for clarifying for me.

This is me working my way through it:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

- Seven thinks EGW is scum
- EGW thinks 7 is town
- 7 thinks EGW is scum
- EGW 7 town

then Somi says that EGW/7 scumread each other

So, basically, at best, Somi is town who isn't paying attention (I can relate to this). At worst, Somi is scum who doesn't actually care because he knows their alignments. I am less convinced that it follows that Somi is scum with 7 and EGW, that feels too neat - your hypothetical scum chat could have been Seven saying "I'll pick a fight with town!EGW, we'll scumread each other and it'll be a distraction" and have exactly the same outcome (in fact, is even more likely since EGW doesn't follow the script). So I'd say scum!somi slightly implies scum!7 but I don't think EGW is implicated. That said, your case has a lot more to it than just the one exchange that you were so kind as to explain to me using crayons, so I will see about giving it another read if I think it's critical info.

Readslist with minor changes from last time:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Townie: Fred, Thea (I don't think scum would have gone to all that work with that list and defending it; unless they're some sort of indie who really needs to get a sole win),
Neutral: Wam, Bessie, Moody* (no particular oder)
Voteable: Somi (will give us info), JC, Heury*
Perfectly within their meta but I struggle to read them: Seven (all their hijinks are a nulltell IMO)

*heury and moody are marginally more scummy than their colocataires due to being alts to a town wagon

Non-Vibes, Facts, Extra Firm Reads:
Mak - conftown, will sheep (would only be reluctant to vote Fred if told, and even then as long as Mak seems to have thought about it and isn't just doing it on a whim I would prob do it)
EGW - provisionally town due to no counterclaim and non-bastard game

Conditional reads: If Somi flips scum then Thea is almost certainly town (because if Thea was Somi's scummate he wouldn't try to specifically dig up this point), and Seven is a sliver more likely to be scum.

My vote: At the end of the day I'm 100% committed to what Mak tells me to do. If they don't give a definitive ruling I'll vote amongst Somi, JC, Heury.

I think EGW is cleared from his claim, so I'm thinking about this in the context of somi/Seven interactions right now.

[Theallieza]

Quick post so you don't think I died or something

Somi was expecting EGW to scumread Seven back. But EGW didn't. But Somi didn't read what actually happened in the thread before he posted. He made his post based on what he assumed would happen.

My guy, I have literally vanished into thin air lately because it's either that or go even more into the red on sleep deprivation, that's just how well I can read stuff. I'm also not sure why Seven would give a heads up in scum chat instead of letting his mates react more naturally to the radical strategy of getting in an argument with EGW.
Anyway, if you're gonna elim me for information let me know, I was about to ask adum for a sub but if I'm dead soon anyway I'm not gonna bother him.

Oh, that reminds me, how’s that catch up coming along @somitomi?

It isn't, because yesterday evening I wasn't anywhere near the computer that has my notes. Which is annoying because I think there is something to be gleamed from that EoD scramble. Purely based on information gathering a Heury elim might be the most fruitful today, since they were the alternative wagon.

I imagine scum!Seven would probably include this as part of a broader strategy discussion. Something along the lines of "Okay, these are the people we are likely to be able to misyeet. These are the people we need to eliminate. These are the people I'm worried about and how we can deal with them until we have time to eliminate, etc."

[Theallieza]

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

okay I feel like there's critical Content in here and I'm missing it, please explain:

Sure, I'll try. These four posts below are from page 2. How are EGW and Seven reading each other?

Alas, it seems we are yet again fated to be opposing alignments. To the dancers on EGW’s team, I am sorry that you rolled scum against me.

Vote: EGW

Funnily enough I get a solid town ping from this.

EGW is a dancer. It is unfair that I am able to read his alignment off of a single post (if you do not believe this, see AI mafia), so I will be stepping away for the remainder of the day in order to allow EGW to play the game and his team to gain a foothold.

So far:

Town: Laserguy, Seven

Pretty unambiguous, right? Seven thinks EGW is mafia; EGW thinks Seven is Town.

A few posts later, somi:

Vote: Seven

I see Seven and EGW are already scumreading each other and bessie's got a confirmation-soul read, everything is right on schedule

Somi gets this wrong and says EGW and Seven scumreading each other. It's a weird error because their posts are really clear. There's not really any way you could read those posts and come away with that impression. Mak spent a bunch of time asking somi about this and somi said he just wasn't paying attention, which I find unsatisfying... I can dig up those posts for you later.

So.... How did this happen? It could be an innocent mistake, but it's a weird one.

I think what probably happened was there was a scumchat discussion that went like this:

Seven: I'm going to scumread EGW. He will scumread me back and we'll spend the whole day arguing and everyone else will probably ignore it and think it's two townies fighting.

Somi: You've done that before and it worked. That sounds like a good plan.

Somi was expecting EGW to scumread Seven back. But EGW didn't. But Somi didn't read what actually happened in the thread before he posted. He made his post based on what he assumed would happen.

This only works in a scum somi scum seven world right?

Yes. I have somi as scum for other reasons (probably the strongest being his interaction with Gluelock: going from null and "I don't want to eliminate them until they catch up" to bottom scum to voting for him without Gluelock doing anything in between), but this interaction is something that has been bothering me for awhile.

[Theallieza]

But how are you separating the role and the read? Role being highly likely town is massively boosting my read of egw

I just don't take it into account. A cop with a guilty, yes. A doc with a save, yes. But for the most part, I ignore Power Roles in my reads until I have a complete view of the setup. This is probably an artifact of my early mafia experience, where red herrings were common. In one of my first games as mafia, for example, I was Mafia Doctor despite there only being Mafia Kill power (e.g. no Town Vig or the like).

How do you feel what we have here is different from a doc with a save?

[Theallieza]

Unofficial VC

heuristically_alone - 3: Seven, Wam, moody7277
somitomi - 3: Theallieza, EGW, JC

Not voting: Madge, Somitomi, Freddino18, Bessie, heury <=== These people need to vote.

Deadline is in 11 hours (thought it was tomorrow.... I should be around at least somewhat close to deadline I think)

willing to take REASONABLE homework assignments to keep me on task, like you can tell me posts you want to me re-read or read in context etc but dont be a dick about it. Im basically willing to be a soundboard here but Im also not going to always be 100% open with my thought process because I need snow insurance, especially if I get to stump for the rest of the game. but yeah send me shit to look at and feel free to ask questions but just being real with yall I do not have a full solve rn so dont even ask. obviously I still think heury is a great play and place to start rn unless the slot can have a redemption arc

If you have comments or a direction that you'd like to proceed in, it would be very useful to get your thoughts.

[AdumbroDeus]

Vote count 4
2. Wam - 0:
3. Bessie - 0:
4. heuristically_alone - 3: Seven, Wam, moody7277
6. Madge - 0:
7. Seven - 0:
8. Theallieza - 0:
9. somitomi - 3: Theallieza, EGW, JC__DADDY25
10. Freddino18 - 0:
11. moody7277 - 0:
12. JC_DADDY25 - 0:
13. EGW - 0:

Not voting: Madge, Somitomi, Freddino18, Bessie, heuristically_alone

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 ends at 12 am on friday September 13th est!

[Wam]

I think huery is the best shot. Am around for another 2 hours if anyone wants anything from me.

[Seven]

I've been thinking about moody and think he has a good shot of being scum.

Chuckle-worthy, as in "X is totally scum because they used an exclamation point. " Even though I've seen it used several times, I remain dubious about the confirmation post analysis (most likely because I am not able to use the trick myself), but I'm not going to denigrate anyone who tries the method. I will note that this does make a tie between you and Thea.

RVS is RVS, and I'm getting a good town read on him now.

I still think these two things are suspicious. The former seems forced, and the latter is suggestive of either coming from a place of TMI or wanting to get ahead of early suspicions on an enigmatic partner.
‎

Lot of talk about the contradictory bits in wam's reads list. Madge being all over the place is something I can understand; her and D1 not the best of friends, but having EGW both town and somewhat scummy is the huh? part to me, especially with a vague "the vibes tell me so" explanation.

wam-- controversial reads list with some duplication, votes Seven, explains EGW read as evolving from town to scum, switches vote to Glue, questions Seven about voting him despite having a 3-person scum team in mind, doesn't like Madge's mod question. Rating: +0.5

His noting of Wam's readlist error and his following read don't seem to align.
‎

Mak-- RV wam, pointed questions to several players, grumpy about lurkers, asks about Fred's vote change, how Seven thinks I'm polarized (which TBH surprised me as well), Seven showing no follow through on their solve, puts up votables list, votes me. Lots of scumhunting here, rating +2.5

I think this is suggestive of where the night kill was coming from. Mak had the highest point rating on Moody's list. I think scum, coming from a place of TMI, saw Mak as super obvious towny and hence chose him for the nightkill. This also goes back to Heury's strange D2 opening post:

Oh not Makhaira! That was so unexpectedly unexpected and not foreseen at all!

Additionally, Mak was voting moody throughout the day and was at the forefront of pushing heury.
‎

Been a really lazy holiday for me. Right off the top of my head I have Fred and Thea as non-elim, and based how much I agreed with one post by Thea that analyzed the 7vEGW, I should probably have 7 as non-elim as well.

Thea-- asks Bessie about her read on Madge and somi, EGW slightly town, corrects somi on interpreting reads and gives slight scum read, reaction to EGW's read on Madge

Here's the post I've been working the most re Thea and Seven. Inasmuch as I think of Thea as town, this post would force me to think of Seven as town as well, but based on my read above I don't have that certainty, which either means I'm getting snowed (meh) or a small chance they're scummates together (yikes).

reading Fred, Madge and Mak as town, votes me, dislikes EGW going after low content slots, wants extension. Rating: +1

Non-votables: Bessie, EGW, Fred, Mak, somi

Votables: Glue, heury, JC(depending on further content)

People not listed I would possibly switch to for the purpose of majority elim.

What changed about your reads of me and Seven?

I'm not certain if it's a change or you and Seven just have big enough error bars on your reads that I'm not comfortable calling you definitely votable or not votable. Plus the contradictory points I'm getting from your analysis of Seven vs EGW earlier against the read of Seven I did is needling my brain.

The progression on Thea here is strange. He had Thea and Fred as his strongest town reads for some reason from early on, continued to town read Thea, but ultimately placed her in potentially votable. I'm not sure if this means anything, it's just odd. The reasoning behind it is that he wasn't town reading me, and since Thea did, it made Thea votable.

‎

I agreed with EGW's point that Glue's emergent post had a highly suspect timing, his content since may do something to temper that, but I'm not recalling much to do that. Heury's been pure cotton candy. JC is probably the least votable of the votables, when he actually puts up some more posts I'll have an actual read.

I think JC has actually posted more than Heury, but maybe I'm nitpicking. Still, seems like a slightly odd distinction

Just did a quick count, and it's JC 11, heury 5. What I noticed most about heury's posts were the fluffiness, although it looks like his last one included reads.

I also think this is interesting. Going back to look, JC's content was indeed on par with heury's at this point. However, moody seemed to think of JC as being absent but of heury being present but fluffing. This may suggest that heury was more salient in moody's mind due to an association between the two.

[Seven]

I think huery is the best shot. Am around for another 2 hours if anyone wants anything from me.

I do too, but looking at the votes I think it's best we just switch to somi. The more I push for heury, the more George & Alli are going to be thinking I'm attempting to save somi, and therefore locked into the somi wagon.

Vote: somi

[AdumbroDeus]

Vote count 5
2. Wam - 0:
3. Bessie - 0:
4. heuristically_alone - 2: Wam, moody7277
6. Madge - 0:
7. Seven - 0:
8. Theallieza - 0:
9. somitomi - 4: Theallieza, EGW, JC_DADDY25, Seven
10. Freddino18 - 0:
11. moody7277 - 0:
12. JC_DADDY25 - 0:
13. EGW - 0:

Not voting: Madge, Somitomi, Freddino18, Bessie, heuristically_alone

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 ends at 12 am on friday September 13th est!

[EGW]

I do too, but looking at the votes I think it's best we just switch to somi. The more I push for heury, the more George & Alli are going to be thinking I'm attempting to save somi, and therefore locked into the somi wagon.Vote: somi

What did you take away from me linking Baldur's Gate to you in reference to Heury?

[Seven]

I do too, but looking at the votes I think it's best we just switch to somi. The more I push for heury, the more George & Alli are going to be thinking I'm attempting to save somi, and therefore locked into the somi wagon.Vote: somi

What did you take away from me linking Baldur's Gate to you in reference to Heury?

https://ramenchef.net/nxf/viewtopic.php?p=74535#p74535

[Seven]

I've just done a review of everyone else, looking for a potential third scummer.

bessie's play isn't hitting of any of the beats I associate with her post-Hari meta. bessie was relentless in her questioning of me when were partners in Baldur's gate. If moody is mafia, I think it is unlikely she is as she eased up on him when he gave her a somewhat satisfactory answer. My initial town read of her, and the thing that is still the strongest to me, comes from her vote count analysis. In particular, her speculation about my conformity confirmation strikes me as extremely town-indicative, especially because she never pursued it. Scum-bessie is stronger in her attempt to latch onto something to push.

Thea led the moody push D1 and pushed for heury > Glue. If the moody and heury are mafia, it is unlikely Thea is. Additionally, the user of the Thea account tends to be more reckless as town. Everything is so careful and neat when they are scum, no large cases or theories. In the past, I've tended to find the paranoid cases as suspicious but I've come to find them as just coming from a place that lacks TMI.

Fred's uncertainty D1 with their being mafia in the game or a night kill makes him town. It hits all of the points of genuine lack of knowledge. Additionally, his scum play is much more stifled and he doesn't do the point system (see: Sorcerer's 11).

Wam has potential just by the fact that he is an excellent wolf. He has no hesitation in bussing, so there's nothing town indicative about his heury preference if heury flips wolf. He also had heury and moody in the null/town leaning side of his lists D1, but I don't think that's particularly abnormal, and his play has hit more of his town beats so far. I think he is town, but I'm hoping he will be cleared through night actions so that he doesn't end up being a late-game miselim.

somi is possible, but I think his recent post about waiting to be replaced if he's going to be yeeted for info makes it unlikely.

George would be my top pick for the third if the setup ends up being something that allows for his role to fit into the mafia position. He has ignored heury and moody as possibilities all game, and when I asked him to analyze them, he put in little effort. George has stated in a prior game that the Shroop tell is unreliable, but he used it to push Glue.

Mak was targeted by both a kill and a tree stump, so it is unlikely to me that the tree stump role comes from mafia. If Mak was only targeted by one, I could see the tree stump has having just been the form the night kill took. That being said, I don't think being a non-mafia role necessarily makes the tree-stumper town. It could be a non-town, non-mafia role. However, there is no reason to assume a 3rd party with what we have at this point in the game.

Given George's role pointing to being non-mafia, I think Madge probably makes the most sense as the third. While I was doing this review, I initially discounted Madge due to her push for going after low-posters D1, her preference of heury > glue, and her willingness to vote moody. However, I went to look at her scum play in Songs of Our Time and she had no hesitation in shading and voting her scummates. Day 1, she had both her scummates in the scum pool. One of them was a strong player, Sabrar, who she voted for and nicked at. The other was a low poster. I bring this up to illustrate the range Madge has in distancing from her partners.

I also think this post from that game nullifies Thea's perception about Madge's unlikelihood of slipping she is Vanilla:

fwiw i am excited because

a) havne't played for 2 years

b) i don't mean to claim or anything but... i might have a power role

any people who don't kniow me: you will laern to hate me, my meta is essentially that i don't play mafia very well. I just modded a game on here and even thouygh I knew who scum was i couldn't find any "Tells" for it so i've basically concluded that it's not something i'm good at, it's been long enough that i don't think i'll ever learn, and i don't have time to dedicat to long re-reads aNyway

that said i love breaking apart the mechanics of the game and working out the different possibilities and coming up with setup spec and whatnot so yeah

also some clear data about the setup:

- people seem to have the potential to have different numbers of elim votes frm how votals are stored

- daychat. i want to emphasise this. i hate daychat. scum can coordinate on a hammer and don't have to talk to each other obliquely in-thread

based on my role i assume nobody has anything approaching a normal role. we were told this, but i was not expecting what i've ended up with.

I also bring this post up to illustrate the sort of gameplan set-up and information gathering scum-Madge is liable to do (e.g. establishing there is day chat, determining the type of roles involved, and being open about where her role fits into it). I think it is also notable that Madge has yet to attempt to organize the role reveals/claims. She has not referenced Mak being a Psychic at all and only briefly touched on George in her readlist without going into the Stumper role. Town!Madge uses mechanical info to solve, and collecting and organizing this info is always at the forefront of her play. Her deviation from the pattern suggests to me that she might be doing this in private.

[EGW]

I think your reasoning for me is weak. There have been times you and I disagreed on reads as a hydra and then we came together to find mafia anyway. I do actually take stock into shroops because I saw it work two times when I pushed against it, looking like an idiot each time.

[Seven]

I forgot JC. I'm not keen on a moody/heury/JC team due to the effort moody is putting. It think that if he is scum, he has at least one partner that is off the elimination pool.

[EGW]

I feel like you are mafia here and your only option at this juncture is to push Huery. However, please give our what you state is the difference between Heurys scum and town play.

[Seven]

We shall see.

[Freddino18]

Gonna Vote: Heury

Might be awake if we have a scramble

[Freddino18]

Quadruple ninja. The legendary beef begins

[AdumbroDeus]

Vote count 6
2. Wam - 0:
3. Bessie - 0:
4. heuristically_alone - 3: Wam, moody7277, Freddino18
6. Madge - 0:
7. Seven - 0:
8. Theallieza - 0:
9. somitomi - 4: Theallieza, EGW, JC_DADDY25, Seven
10. Freddino18 - 0:
11. moody7277 - 0:
12. JC_DADDY25 - 0:
13. EGW - 0:

Not voting: Madge, Somitomi, Bessie, heuristically_alone

With 11 alive it takes 6 to eliminate.

Day 2 ends at 12 am on friday September 13th est!

[EGW]

Gonna Vote: Heury

Please explain why, and give me your thoughts on Somi.

[Theallieza]

Vote moody

[EGW]

somi is possible, but I think his recent post about waiting to be replaced if he's going to be yeeted for info makes it unlikely.

I have not read into that. I'm just basing my read on his content. What concerns me about your slot is that your Somi read moves from too wolfy to be wolf to town for a weak reason.