Are we human or are we dancer mafia (game over, Dancers win!)

[EGW]

Also since we got an extension I think it's time we discuss Seven, Thea. I want you to see what I see. I can help you with it.

[EGW]

Seven: What do you mean you're fully ok with me at this point. Can you elaborate on that. You only gave a sentence.

[Seven]

Gluelock and Wam are scum. I think people are latching on to the wrong thing to scumread Somi. I'd rather see his reads and his overall play. I'm neutral on Moody.

I am very suspicious of this. I feel like you are going for the most low-hanging fruit. Doesn't feel like a legit attempt at a solve to me.

I think this reaction from Alli may be something to look at if Glue flips wolf.

[Seven]

Seven: What do you mean you're fully ok with me at this point. Can you elaborate on that. You only gave a sentence.

You're town OK. I was wrong.

[Seven]

Unvot: Moody

Vote: Gluelock

[Theallieza]

By popular demand I have dug out the coloured plot.



Gluelock seems to be making a decent attempt at catchup. No strong pings from them yet. JC is here but so far has not produced any content that I find useful, though IIRC this is not necessarily alignment indicative. Everyone to the right of Wam I'd consider votable.

So the usual suspects

Unfortunately, yes. I am pretty happy with my townreads but I hate it when I end up with a bunch of low posters as my PoE.

[Seven]

By popular demand I have dug out the coloured plot.



Gluelock seems to be making a decent attempt at catchup. No strong pings from them yet. JC is here but so far has not produced any content that I find useful, though IIRC this is not necessarily alignment indicative. Everyone to the right of Wam I'd consider votable.

So the usual suspects

Unfortunately, yes. I am pretty happy with my townreads but I hate it when I end up with a bunch of low posters as my PoE.

You mean the very thing you called EGW out on in what I quoted above?

[Theallieza]

on power wolfing: i agree it exists, i'm not saying scum only ever lurks, just that if scum power wolves (e.g. Seven in literally any game), they are posting enough to have takes and opinions and those can be examined for consistency/links with identified scum. someone with a less decisive style (e.g. me in literally any game) can be hard to pin down in terms of what their actual motivations are.

On balance, wolves do tend to have lower postcounts than Town. This isn't universally true and I think it is more true in places like Mafia Universe where the postcounts are stupid high, but for most people wolfing is harder and requires more effort. Lurkers tend to be more of a liability in endgame scenarios if they have less content to analyze. So it's not a terrible strategy. I think D2 is the optimal day for a lurker elimination, but D1 isn't the worst.

By popular demand I have dug out the coloured plot.

Yay!
But also why is Fred so high?

I think it is fairly unlikely that a post like this:

do mafia have daychat? it's probably in the rules which i did read ut didn't memorise.

The rules are a general ruleset with allowances for daychat but we don't even have a confirmation that there are actual scum.The rules are the vaguest on actual mechanics that I have ever seen. It's either that this game is entirely vanilla, or Adum is hiding a big stinker (wth is the name for one of those games?) (also I always phone it in until I do my in-depth analysis)

September 4rd

Fake-Vote Adum

Comes from a wolf. It's just such a weird interpretation of the rules and Mafia the game in general that I would really struggle to see anyone with any sort of informed (i.e. non-town) perspective saying something like this. IIRC I found a few other similar examples.

[AdumbroDeus]

Vote count 5
1. Makhaira - 0:
2. Wam - 0:
3. Bessie - 0:
4. heuristically_alone - 0: Wan
5. Gluelock - 2: Moody7277, Seven
6. Madge - 0:
7. Seven - 1: Freddino18
8. Theallieza - 0:
9. somitomi - 1: EGW
10. Freddino18 - 1: Somitomi
11. moody7277 - 2: Theallieza, Makhaira
12. JC_DADDY25 - 1: madge
13. EGW - 0:

The deadline is set for friday September 6th at 12 am EST.

[Theallieza]

Hm. Alli, I really need you to do something towny. Can you elaborate on moody's tone difference and why you believe it to be mafia indicative? Do you agree or disagree with the points I made on him and why?

Contrast moody in Baldur's Gate:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Well, scum having safe claims means mass claim is worthless; bessie should be happy with that.

Even with powerful town, 6-3 is a definite no, so 7-2 sounds right.

And yes, even when he's not playing, scum!Swiss is such a threat that I had some knee weakness from Seven's bit of fun.

Vote: JC
for confirming last

I like EGW getting straight to business.
somi's thing is a little weird, but understandable considering how often they are suspected early.

Even if somi's on the up and up, there's still a 50% chance you or wam are scum.

It certainly isn't helpful to town to have your row distracting the rest from proper analysis.

To me it sounds OP af for scum to be able to thunderdome, because they could force a miselim, and the side effect Seven mentioned would be useless.

Disagree strongly with this. Thunderdoming has such strong effects that it should be tactical or, as EGW said he did, not used at all.

Unvote

If as it seems RVS is over, I don't want my frivolous vote to be part of a wagon until I do my full read through, which I'll get to after work today.

Moody in PYP:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Flips are important enough that I'm going to FoS anyone who votes for it. I was in a game without flips, and town got steamrolled.

Who do you know, how well, and how experienced are you. Link to another game you've played as Town.

Played a bunch: Boomforg, wam, huery, bessie, Sabrar
Played with some: Mak, Seven
New to me: Swiss, Fred, JC, Fonti

I've played off and on for about a decade on this forum and it's predecessor, figure I'm maybe a B-level player.

Sorceror's 11 mafia

PS, that avatar is going to have me mistake you for bessie at least once in this game.

Perq vote: Godfather, Rolecop

@bessie: If you have Unmafia archived, that would be the stuff of nightmares re Janitor.

Roleblocker is bad because of our information powers possibly being shut down, and two chances at it is worse
Rolecop is not as bad because scum already know what powers town has, so it's only a matter of seeing who got what for them
I don't have enough info on vengful mafiate to give a good opinion, based on the name it would be that scum has a kill upon being elimed?
Janitor is the devil
Godfather I feel comfortable we can work around with interaction analysis

Madge replaces heuristically_alone

As much as Madge hates D1, I can't wait to hear her feelings about D0.

W. Doc/Vig/Mason sounds like scum's best choice due to excluding the most powerful choices.

Why do you think the setup options contain both doc and weak doc? Why is Vig not powerful?

I don't, that is weak doctor/vigilante/masonizer. Scum might give town vig due to the consequenses of it going wrong, whereas cop and doctor don't have a downside as dire.

GF being protected from Vig is a factor but less so

It's more than just "shows up to cops as town"? Well chirp that, I've been assuming what I've always heard about the roles.

unvote Godfather
vote Vengeful

Moody in Halloween 2023:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Well, two posts doesn't necessarily make a pattern, but heury is doing something interesting

Vote: Adum

Sus exclamation point is sus.

I figured it's been long enough that that cliche belongs to everyone now.

Bessie read: +4.

Mak getting confused by BF using non-standard language looks honest to me, although them skimming the intro flavor text is a little troubling.

BF is acting like what I remember of old, which right now is comforting, we'll see if that holds up D2 and on. The reason for switching to a serious vote is a pretty good one.

Also I was unknowingly paralleling LaserGuy's reasoning, which terrifies me.

@Laserguy: I'm willing to say that whether they were skimming or not is maybe a difference in a +1 and +1.5 read on Mak at this point. Boomfrog seemed to be making a bigger deal of it IMO. My view on the game is that mafia="Kill all humans" AIs, and town="serve and obey and keep men from harm" AIs.

Moody's thoughts are usually short, concise and on point. This post in particular really stuck out at me as being... weird? The jokey tone, the more drawn out thoughts. It's very different. I also get a vibe that his thoughts this game about individual players are a lot more wishy-washy. E.g. here he talks about Wam's error being weird without really giving an opinion about what it might mean. He's just kind of acknowledging that the conversation happened. Contrast here in Hallowe'en where Mak made an error about the flavour and he immediately states his opinion that it looks like an honest mistake.

In going back I'm also noticing that moody is much more active in his recent games. In Baldur's Gate he had 15 posts in D1; In PYP he had 6 posts in D0 and 26 in D1; in Hallowe'en he had 36 in D1. The last scum game I can find for him was Secret Santa 2022, where he had 10. This game he has 10 so far.

There's enough red flags there that I think there's a decent chance he's mafia.

Why is Mak so low? Dive fully into that read please.

I'm waiting to see some more detailed reads from him before I would be comfortable bumping him any higher. I like his content so far.

[JC_DADDY25]

I hate that this is the last I'll see of Glue before end of day (excepting phone content), so I will

Vote: Extension

in order to get more content out of him. Hopefully I see something good in the morning. Expect ~3 hours before I go to bed.

Did you see anything good?

[Freddino18]

Nope. Still on my need-to-know-more list

[JC_DADDY25]

Vote: No Extension

Extensions are unfair—particularly publicly voted extensions—and in this case, unnecessary.

Noted

[Theallieza]

Also since we got an extension I think it's time we discuss Seven, Thea. I want you to see what I see. I can help you with it.

My initial reason for townreading Seven was basically what I said here. Skimming over D1 in Baldur's Gate, this seems fairly consistent with my hypothesis: He didn't seem to want to directly confront you, and just sort of let himself assume you were Town without really putting in a lot of effort to sort you. You are never going to get eliminated as Town, so he didn't really put any effort into pretending. So logic dictates that if he is trying to push you in D1, it's likely that he's Town. One edge case I was worried about is where you were both non-Town. I don't think it is super likely, but there's no way at present for me to rule it out (though I don't think it is pure multiball as those games have a tendency to be more aggressive). And my own observations point to you being Town, so I think that point is hopefully moot.

The other edge case I was sort of worried about (and didn't mention) was the one where he was only pretending to have a scumread on you, which is something I think is in his range as either alignment. He didn't attempt to pressure you or really develop his read beyond the initial push, so it falls into an uncomfortable gray area for me where I think as scum he could do this and then bail out of the read without provoking you too much. He isn't saying that this is the case, but for the latter half of the Day that was what I was assuming as I clarified my townread on you. So I can't lock him in as Town as I was hoping to.

Setting the you-focused elements of my read on him aside, I don't have any specific objections to his content. It's fine. It isn't "I am very obviously Town and want to be Town leader" that I have seen from him before. It's in the range that I don't think he's likely to be mafia, but I haven't seen anything that I feel is hard clearing as I have with some other slots.

[madge]

To me it seems kinda backward to try and pick off the mafiosi who are much harder to identify on D1 instead of the ones who already have enough content to analyse. Again, I'm not saying we should never elim lurkers, I'm just saying D1 seems like a suboptimal time to do it.

Lol sorry I missed the part where here, now, today, on D1 we have a scum candidate. Like ofc if Seven had said or done something super scummy I wouldn't hold off on voting them out out of my lurker principles or whatevs. Right now my two "keep around for now" people are Bessie and Seven and neither of them has done anything overly scummy. I'm not pleased with Seven refusing to vote for an extension on some weird principle, but I also know that having a weird principle is something Seven would do even as town and everything else has been pretty middle of the road.

Let's skip to D5, all that's left is you, JC, and Seven. I don't know about you but I'd really struggle to make a confident end of game decision based on JC's content right now. I don't know why this isn't more obvious?

I thought I'd have a longer post but I guess not?

Reads:

Townie: Fred, Gluelock, Mak, Somi (roughly that order)

Neutral: Thea, Wam, Moody (again roughly that order)

Voteable: JC, Heury (this is a tossup)

Perfectly within their meta but I struggle to read them: Seven, Bessie, EGW

[EGW]

Thea: I was under the assumption that he may have actually pushed me without truly believing in it yes. This is because the reasoning wasn't really believable as something suspicious to push, but more so just something to get the ball rolling. It's also possible he did that to see if I'd waver with my read on him, yet I didn't. For example another point to his townieness is his reversal of reads recently and pushing Gluelock. He is scumhunting much more than he did in Baldurs Gate. Also he is constantly questioning which he lacked in Baldur's Gate.

[EGW]

Seven, I like the vote on Glue. Felt like he posted a few quotes just to show his presence and then dip. Also felt weird that he'd only catch up with those few posts only. Not only that, but again it took two prods for him to react in that manner and he was more of an annoyance in Halloween Mafia. I still think it's weird that he called his vote on Madge RVS when he was literally quoting her, which implies it pinged him.

Unvote; Vote: Gluelock

[EGW]

haaha now i'll remember you gluelock, thanks for the vote.

Madge, why didn't you vote Gluelock here?

[JC_DADDY25]

do mafia have daychat? it's probably in the rules which i did read ut didn't memorise.

Feels faked.

The rules seem to be intentionally ambiguous, this was a valid question. If there's no night elim, I have a theory about the gamerule.

Can you elaborate more on this? Not necessarily what your theory is if you don't feel like explaining that right now, but why you think there may be no night elim.

[Freddino18]

Nope. I said D2 because I would need D2 info.

[moody7277]

What changed about your reads of me and Seven?

Why is somi Town?

I'm not certain if it's a change or you and Seven just have big enough error bars on your reads that I'm not comfortable calling you definitely votable or not votable. Plus the contradictory points I'm getting from your analysis of Seven vs EGW earlier against the read of Seven I did is needling my brain.

My town read of somi was based on the variety of his player interactions, which I saw Mak also had but in a higher degree thus the higher rating on Mak. Post-by-post is something I think I'll start doing D2.

Can you talk about the reason these three made the votables?

I agreed with EGW's point that Glue's emergent post had a highly suspect timing, his content since may do something to temper that, but I'm not recalling much to do that. Heury's been pure cotton candy. JC is probably the least votable of the votables, when he actually puts up some more posts I'll have an actual read.

Nope. I said D2 because I would need D2 info.

The only problem with waiting for D2 info is that you'll likely be disappointed by how much D2 info people actually give.

[EGW]

Scum Team Context

So far:

Town: Laserguy, Seven
Scum: Madge.

Vote: Madge

town = bessie, for book favours; seven, for being cool calm and collective
scum = egw, for voting for me

i won't be posting tomorrow (probably), busy day.

d1 is just vibes for me anyway. i expect to be around at deadline

but I feel like if it were a joke and it was obvious I didn't get it she would have acknowledged my comment.

This and her excitement are why she's scum here.

Does it change your read that she is saying it wasn't a joke? I don't think either of these things are alignment indicative for Madge.

Does it change your read that she is saying it wasn't a joke? I don't think either of these things are alignment indicative for Madge.

No. She did this as third party scum before, Bessie pointed out that she was joking when I had a problem with her lack of follow up. Example below:

Madge, why are you not responding to Bessies answer to your question?

Does it change your read that she is saying it wasn't a joke? I don't think either of these things are alignment indicative for Madge.

No. She did this as third party scum before, Bessie pointed out that she was joking when I had a problem with her lack of follow up. Example below:

Madge, why are you not responding to Bessies answer to your question?

Interesting. This is useful to know.

No. She did this as third party scum before, Bessie pointed out that she was joking when I had a problem with her lack of follow up. Example below:

Interesting. This is useful to know.

oh my god read the context! Bessie told me on PAGE ONE that she didn't like my content. what psycopath thinks that this means ANYTHING? also like what, u think that because i thought something serious(????? was bessie possibly serious about my content on PAGE ONE not b eing good enough? knowing bessie PROBABLY because she has 5D chess but SERIOUSLY??? PAGE ONE???????? i dare you to find a g ame in HISTORY where i had good content on PAGE FREAKING ONE)

this is why i don't play mafia much, people misinterpret me because i am too much of a manic pixie dream girl for 'em

bessie - i know u love confirmation post analysis and u missed ONE important thing: not only do i get to talk about myself to an audience but i get to SAVE THE DAY by replacing in and start the game after 2 days of post-confirmation waiting. so i was excited to come in and save the day. which apparently m akes me scum, so whatever. i always get read scum. i'll try and do better this time, but it's off to a great start since i *c hecked notes* asked a genuine, non-joke question and *checks notes* was excited to play this game thing we are all playing for fun???????

yeah i don't take things personally, i take EVERYTHING personally, everything is about me, i think i could legit be diagnosed with narcissistic personality disorder except even though i have narcissistic feelings about myself i don't do any of the personality disorder stuff around being mean, which is prob for the best because being mean sucks and also getting d iagnosed with NPD, whooo boy, the stigma amirite?

do mafia have daychat? it's probably in the rules which i did read ut didn't memorise.

@MAK: no i mean cool calm and collective. it's a reference to Survivor 30: Blue Collar vs White Collar vs No Collar, Rodney LaVoie Jr used the phrase to describe himself. and it's vibes. i am telling you it's all vibes, Seven normally has a very imposing manner about them and this time it's slightly less imposing.

@heury: oh my god i got super addicted to slay the spire and then i found out you can install mods in steam so i got addicted to downfall and all the mods t hat add new cards and events, such a good game!!!!


ACTUAL GAME THOUGHTS THAT MATTER (everything else can prob be skipped):

i am confused about how anyone can get readings from somi and moody, i have forgotten about them already. Seven and bessie are both larger than life, but that doesn't mean they're town, just that they have impressions on things? a trap i find i fall into is town-reading high volume/highly logical players

as much as EGW sucks for voting for me, i don't actually want to keep my joke vote on much longer as i can see myself doing confirmation bias of why i think EGW is scummy scum, so i'll unvote to improve neutrality:

unvote EGW

for a setup, with 13 players i'd imagine we have a third party. given it's a mountainous game (is that the right term?), i'd expect 2-3 scum, but i am no expert scum balancer.

subjective vibes-based groupings of all players:

posting is noticeable, but this doesn't mean they're town: bessie, seven

don't even remember them posting: wam, gluelock, moody7277

middle of the road: makhaira, somitomi, EGW

seems to be phoning it in: heuri, madge, Theallieza, Freddino18, JC_DADDY25

I was going to rank people within the groupings but I think mak is the towniest middle person and Thea is the towniest phoning it in person (apart from me obviously, but i wanted to be honest about which group i belong in).

in general i on't want to vote off the "noticeable posters" group, because they'll have enough rope. i think the don't remember posting group is the most fertile ground for looking for voteoff candidates, because if i can't remember that they're posting then i'm not going to remember their scummy or twonie actions, and in a vacuum we want to get rid of people who are hard to vote off later. i say that as someone who is often kept until the end by scum because i am so bad at this game, it's an absolute pain if halfway through we're left with the "phoning it in" players because we have so little to go on. i remember in one game we were voting between 2 candidates and one had just kinda fallen off the map for several half Days so we had very, very little to go on.

i personally believe the D1 vote is a crapshoot so best to shoot those craps amongst the people we will be frustrated about not having enough information on later

Interesting. This is useful to know.

oh my god read the context! Bessie told me on PAGE ONE that she didn't like my content. what psycopath thinks that this means ANYTHING? also like what, u think that because i thought something serious(????? was bessie possibly serious about my content on PAGE ONE not b eing good enough? knowing bessie PROBABLY because she has 5D chess but SERIOUSLY??? PAGE ONE???????? i dare you to find a g ame in HISTORY where i had good content on PAGE FREAKING ONE)

this is why i don't play mafia much, people misinterpret me because i am too much of a manic pixie dream girl for 'em

bessie - i know u love confirmation post analysis and u missed ONE important thing: not only do i get to talk about myself to an audience but i get to SAVE THE DAY by replacing in and start the game after 2 days of post-confirmation waiting. so i was excited to come in and save the day. which apparently m akes me scum, so whatever. i always get read scum. i'll try and do better this time, but it's off to a great start since i *c hecked notes* asked a genuine, non-joke question and *checks notes* was excited to play this game thing we are all playing for fun???????

yeah i don't take things personally, i take EVERYTHING personally, everything is about me, i think i could legit be diagnosed with narcissistic personality disorder except even though i have narcissistic feelings about myself i don't do any of the personality disorder stuff around being mean, which is prob for the best because being mean sucks and also getting d iagnosed with NPD, whooo boy, the stigma amirite?

do mafia have daychat? it's probably in the rules which i did read ut didn't memorise.

@MAK: no i mean cool calm and collective. it's a reference to Survivor 30: Blue Collar vs White Collar vs No Collar, Rodney LaVoie Jr used the phrase to describe himself. and it's vibes. i am telling you it's all vibes, Seven normally has a very imposing manner about them and this time it's slightly less imposing.

@heury: oh my god i got super addicted to slay the spire and then i found out you can install mods in steam so i got addicted to downfall and all the mods t hat add new cards and events, such a good game!!!!


ACTUAL GAME THOUGHTS THAT MATTER (everything else can prob be skipped):

i am confused about how anyone can get readings from somi and moody, i have forgotten about them already. Seven and bessie are both larger than life, but that doesn't mean they're town, just that they have impressions on things? a trap i find i fall into is town-reading high volume/highly logical players

as much as EGW sucks for voting for me, i don't actually want to keep my joke vote on much longer as i can see myself doing confirmation bias of why i think EGW is scummy scum, so i'll unvote to improve neutrality:

unvote EGW

for a setup, with 13 players i'd imagine we have a third party. given it's a mountainous game (is that the right term?), i'd expect 2-3 scum, but i am no expert scum balancer.

subjective vibes-based groupings of all players:

posting is noticeable, but this doesn't mean they're town: bessie, seven

don't even remember them posting: wam, gluelock, moody7277

middle of the road: makhaira, somitomi, EGW

seems to be phoning it in: heuri, madge, Theallieza, Freddino18, JC_DADDY25

I was going to rank people within the groupings but I think mak is the towniest middle person and Thea is the towniest phoning it in person (apart from me obviously, but i wanted to be honest about which group i belong in).

in general i on't want to vote off the "noticeable posters" group, because they'll have enough rope. i think the don't remember posting group is the most fertile ground for looking for voteoff candidates, because if i can't remember that they're posting then i'm not going to remember their scummy or twonie actions, and in a vacuum we want to get rid of people who are hard to vote off later. i say that as someone who is often kept until the end by scum because i am so bad at this game, it's an absolute pain if halfway through we're left with the "phoning it in" players because we have so little to go on. i remember in one game we were voting between 2 candidates and one had just kinda fallen off the map for several half Days so we had very, very little to go on.

i personally believe the D1 vote is a crapshoot so best to shoot those craps amongst the people we will be frustrated about not having enough information on later

Vote: Madge

haaha now i'll remember you gluelock, thanks for the vote.

deadline is at noon my time but i have a meeting from 11-12 that day at work so i won't be online for deadline unless it finishes early (which it does sometimes)

Gluelock and Wam are scum. I think people are latching on to the wrong thing to scumread Somi. I'd rather see his reads and his overall play. I'm neutral on Moody.

I am very suspicious of this. I feel like you are going for the most low-hanging fruit. Doesn't feel like a legit attempt at a solve to me.

Madge: Pretty sure she townslipped hard.

Madge: Pretty sure she townslipped hard.

Can you elaborate on this?

Vote: Moody

Madge said something that I feel strongly implied she has a specific Town role.

- I vote Madge.
- Madge declares me scum for voting her.
- Thea asks me if my read changed on Madge.
- I show why it hasn't, and he agrees that it is a good point.

TURNING BOUT

- Madge responds to Thea with AtE.
- Gluelock votes Madge AtE after slanking himself.
- Madge does not vote nor declare Gluelock scum for voting her.
- Thea accuses me of a disengenous solve.

- Thea states Madge townslipped.
- Thea explains Madge might be a Town Role.

[JC_DADDY25]

Nope. I said D2 because I would need D2 info.

Why would you need D2 info to explain why you feel there may not be a night elim?

[EGW]

Game Winning Lazy Reads



Town [EGW > Seven > Mak > Freddy > Bessie > Moody > Somitomi | Heury, JC, Wam | Theallieza > Madge > Gluelock] Scum

[EGW]

Thanks to Seven's genius, I discovered why Madge had frustration. So imagine Thea is scum with Madge here, they try to move me off of Madge with null tells, but I show an example of something she did as millerizer and Thea had to agree. Notice, Madge is composed when I vote her, but she shows AtE when responding to Thea. Therefore, this is faked, not genuine frustration. This is why, upon entering the thread and slanking, Gluelock votes her. He has more insight on her alignment than others, so he voted her while not being active. Next, Thea tries to town clear Madge by saying she might have a town role, which is a very weak angle to tackle reading her slot. Therefore, if Gluelock / Madge flip scum, Thea is scum.