Baldur's Gate Mafia (Absolute Power)

[LaserGuy]

FYI, I may not here here at deadline tomorrow. The deadline counter is the official end of day even if I am not around, please do not post after it is expired. I should be able to resolve the day's events 2-3 hours after the normal deadline if there isn't a hammer before then.

It is ELO. Town must eliminate correctly toDay or are at risk of losing.

Votals:
Not voting: bessie, moody, Seven, somitomi, Wam

With 5 players, it takes 3 to hammer. Deadline is April 23 at 9pm PST (approx 22 hours). Deadline timer.

[somitomi]

Seven having that power at all means Seven's town, because as I've already said, it would be OP in the hands of scum.

Dangit, you may be right. This game is annoying, no scum flips yet and I don't even get to OMGUS Seven.

Which means it's one of bessie, wam, moody and I don't have my scribbles right now about which teams make sense.

I gave EGW something on N1. He confirmed he received it. This is already in thread so I don’t need to tailor a claim:

Fair, didn't mean to imply that you would, only that it was a theoretical possibility.

saying that it was unlikely that Make was town, then voting me

I know I haven't been playing too well (and bessie will absolutely Grrr at me for this, so I might be just digging my own grave here), but explain to me why scum!somi would draw attention to himself by suddenly changing the stated course and voting you instead of coasting to a Mak elim and leaving his targeting options open for the night. What do I gain from being quite visibly all over the place?

Wam & Somi knew I would be able to see where they were going last night. Given the incongruency with whom Somi chose to target, leads me to suspect that his action was a feint. i.e partner!somi targeted moody as a way of unpairing them toDay. I'm not quite convinced of this, however, because moody doesn't seem scummy at all.

You could what now?

At least one of you is playing very well, though, because in terms of raw reads, I'm town reading three of you.

Ouch

I'm at work, so more thorough thinking later

[Wam]

Wam & Somi knew I would be able to see where they were going last night. Given the incongruency with whom Somi chose to target, leads me to suspect that his action was a feint. i.e partner!somi targeted moody as a way of unpairing them toDay. I'm not quite convinced of this, however, because moody doesn't seem scummy at all.

You could what now?

That was my reaction as well!

[Wam]

So logic time.

Seven could be scum but I think with the demonstrated power its unlikely. I think its more likely than people are giving it credit for but still low %. I also think sevens night protection was all powers not just NK so that would weight it slightly more likely to be a scum role.

With that said I think seven isn't the play today or tomorrow so if seven is scum well done, game over we can all go to the pub.

Highly likely I'm not going to be around at deadline so in going to be voting in 12 hours or so.

[Wam]

I know it's time zones etc but 11 hours to deadline and the thread being this quiet worries me

[Wam]

FYI, I may not here here at deadline tomorrow. The deadline counter is the official end of day even if I am not around, please do not post after it is expired. I should be able to resolve the day's events 2-3 hours after the normal deadline if there isn't a hammer before then.

It is ELO. Town must eliminate correctly toDay or are at risk of losing.

Votals:
Not voting: bessie, moody, Seven, somitomi, Wam

With 5 players, it takes 3 to hammer. Deadline is April 23 at 9pm PST (approx 22 hours). Deadline timer.

given the above and what feels like a more discussion needed, can we please have a deadline extension?

[Seven]

How long before you have to dip, Wam? Vote order is important. I'd prefer for you to go fourth if possible.

Order I'd prefer: Somi, bessie, moody, Wam

[LaserGuy]

FYI, I may not here here at deadline tomorrow. The deadline counter is the official end of day even if I am not around, please do not post after it is expired. I should be able to resolve the day's events 2-3 hours after the normal deadline if there isn't a hammer before then.

It is ELO. Town must eliminate correctly toDay or are at risk of losing.

Votals:
Not voting: bessie, moody, Seven, somitomi, Wam

With 5 players, it takes 3 to hammer. Deadline is April 23 at 9pm PST (approx 22 hours). Deadline timer.

given the above and what feels like a more discussion needed, can we please have a deadline extension?

No, I will not be granting an extension at this time.

[Wam]

How long before you have to dip, Wam? Vote order is important. I'd prefer for you to go fourth if possible.

Order I'd prefer: Somi, bessie, moody, Wam

2 hours or so from thus post.

[Seven]

OK bessie isn't going to be on until much later, unless @LaserGuy is willing to ping. I'd still like Somi to go first though. Also I just realized that I'm used to votes being locked in elo so this doesn't matter as much

[somitomi]

So logic time.

Seven could be scum but I think with the demonstrated power its unlikely. I think its more likely than people are giving it credit for but still low %. I also think sevens night protection was all powers not just NK so that would weight it slightly more likely to be a scum role.

With that said I think seven isn't the play today or tomorrow so if seven is scum well done, game over we can all go to the pub.

Highly likely I'm not going to be around at deadline so in going to be voting in 12 hours or so.

So where is your head right now?

How long before you have to dip, Wam? Vote order is important. I'd prefer for you to go fourth if possible.

Order I'd prefer: Somi, bessie, moody, Wam

Can you respond to this?

I know I haven't been playing too well (and bessie will absolutely Grrr at me for this, so I might be just digging my own grave here), but explain to me why scum!somi would draw attention to himself by suddenly changing the stated course and voting you instead of coasting to a Mak elim and leaving his targeting options open for the night. What do I gain from being quite visibly all over the place?

I'd also like to know why you thought wam and I knew about your secret tracking powers because I still didn't find the post where you make any mention of that before D3.

In other news, I consulted my notes and reread interactions in the bessie-moody-wam triangle.
bessie+moody: there's an early weird interaction here, moody reacts to bessie looking at confirmation posts as if it's some new thing and not something everyone and their dog has seen bessie do. Not sure what to make of this, but besides this the only interaction between them is bessie asking moody why he believes Seven's claim. Readswise moody puts her as a townlean D1 and 5-7% scum today, bessie puts him as "nothing stands out" D1 and somewhere in the middle D2. Verdict: plausible
bessie+wam: not much interaction between them before this phase, mostly bessie explaining her progression on Mak sometime during D2. Wam reads her as top town D1, neutral on D2, bessie puts him in the middle on D1 and second lowest today. Of note that yesterDay Wam suggesteded bessie and moody as targets for Mak's vengeful shot and included bessie in both potential scumteams toDay. Verdict: low probability
moody+wam: Moody strongly disagrees with wam suggesting a random thunderdome and then again when Wam starts indie-hunting on D2. Wam asks moody why he got off the JC wagon but this is never followed up. Moody reads Wam as town-null on D1, as Mak's scummate D2 and as 100% scum toDay, Wam puts moody in the middle on D1 and as townlean for D2. Note moody's early remark that there's a 50% chance of Heury or Wam being scum and Wam's suggestion to Mak I pointed out already. Verdict: nope

Based on the above bessie seems like the best shot today and during this reread it occured to me that she didn't seem to have her usual "bite" this game, this time she didn't really push any of her scumreads, much less tunnel anyone. From what I remember she doesn't enjoy being mafia too much, but I might just be rationalising here. Anyhow, at this time that'd be my vote, I'm going to take a shower now and then I'll be around until around 2 hours from now.

[Wam]

d it occured to me that she didn't seem to have her usual "bite" this game, this time she didn't really push any of her scumreads, much less tunnel anyone. From what I remember she doesn't enjoy being mafia too much, but I might just be rationalising here. .

The above matches my gut read and I'm on Bessie at the moment. Will vote in 30 min or so

[Wam]

vote bessie

[somitomi]

Where is everybody?

[somitomi]

Well, I'm going to bed. Godspeed everyone
Vote: bessie

[Wam]

Where is everybody?

Mu question as well

[moody7277]

And with that, the residual 5-7% goes poof.

[Seven]

lol my heart was pounding when I saw moody posted. So seeing as moody hasn’t hammered, it’s either wam-somi or bessie-moody.

At work but I’ll do a final review before making decision in about an hour.

[bessie]

Daily bark!

Bessie prefers somi [inferred from readlist]

Yes, I prefer somitomi.

I know I haven't been playing too well (and bessie will absolutely Grrr at me for this, so I might be just digging my own grave here), but explain to me why scum!somi would draw attention to himself by suddenly changing the stated course and voting you instead of coasting to a Mak elim and leaving his targeting options open for the night. What do I gain from being quite visibly all over the place?

Hey, a WOULD I DO THAT AS SCUM post!

So why did you vote for Seven? Perhaps you more afraid of Seven than you were of Mak?

I know it's time zones etc but 11 hours to deadline and the thread being this quiet worries me

Wam, you know the hours I play. It’s the same as it has been for over ten years, and I also post it at the start of every game. See this post . Your post was during working hours in the United States, so I think this is false concern.

Based on the above bessie seems like the best shot today and during this reread it occured to me that she didn't seem to have her usual "bite" this game, this time she didn't really push any of her scumreads, much less tunnel anyone. From what I remember she doesn't enjoy being mafia too much, but I might just be rationalising here. Anyhow, at this time that'd be my vote, I'm going to take a shower now and then I'll be around until around 2 hours from now.

Perhaps because I keep taking crap from people for tunneling, and I’m trying to make the game more easygoing for everyone? My tunneling in Secret Santa of the player I was certain was mafia caused BoomFrog to make the wrong choice and lost the game for town (I was correct, by the way). I have in my two previous games (I think) actually made a point of trying not to tunnel you and this was discussed in game and I drew a lot of suspicion from Seven for it. Enough that I was almost the D1 elim and I had to claim and you know how much I love to claim on D1.

The above matches my gut read and I'm on Bessie at the moment. Will vote in 30 min or so

Of course it does. You and somi have been working together the past two days. D2 after Seven claimed, somi asked Seven not to use his powers on any “ML bait players” and specified himself, heury, and Wam. I pointed out that this pinged me twice, see this post. In that same post, I started to allude to somi and Wam working together when I asked him his take on Wam’s Mak read, which he didn’t answer:

Yeah, that's not a good look, although paranoid-me is sitting in the corner asking "why has there been no pushback against the Mak elim?"

I’m interested in your thoughts on Wam’s Mak read.

Note for future self: somi didn't answer this.

Interestingly, somi followed Wam’s D2 vote on Seven.

Where is everybody?

See my above response to Wam.

Well, I'm going to bed. Godspeed everyone
Vote: bessie

Hmmmm, following Wam again.


I'll be around until deadline.

[moody7277]

Well, with an hour and a half left, the decision is whether to elim wam or somi.

[bessie]

I'm rereading for anything that stands out to me.

[Seven]

I'm rereading for anything that stands out to me.

Considering that moody and I haven't hammered, it shouldn’t matter from your perspective.

Almost home.

[Seven]

I know I haven't been playing too well (and bessie will absolutely Grrr at me for this, so I might be just digging my own grave here), but explain to me why scum!somi would draw attention to himself by suddenly changing the stated course and voting you instead of coasting to a Mak elim and leaving his targeting options open for the night. What do I gain from being quite visibly all over the place?

I don't know. There could be any number of motivations. What matters is the incongruency. I'm of the view that scum rarely do something that is actually telling throughout the game, and really only do so at key moments (generally the EoD elimination) where they either make strategic moves by choice or are forced to. One possible motivation is positioning: setting one's self up to be blameless on the miselem while simultaneously promoting the elim. I do this all the time as scum, adding fuel to the fire while never directly contributing to the wagon myself.

[Seven]

Vote: Somi

[moody7277]

Okay then, we're going that way.

vote: somi