Baldur's Gate Mafia (Absolute Power)

[somitomi]

You're actually one of the few people I think would kill him. You, maybe Wam cause he's chaotic and unpredictable. Best reasoning I could guess for his nk is to highlight the fact that both wagons were towny, thus making the active slots (me, ran, bessie) viable as you're doing now.

Claim or I'm dueling you.

Ok, I saw Mak respond to this and and I need to point out how illogical this is. You three were all on the Heury wagon, that's already enough for a push and flipping JC would actually be counterproductive from this point of view, since it eliminates the possibility of mafia protecting scum!JC

I guess this marks the beginning of the "is Seven snowing me?" phase of the game.

[Makhaira]

If you have any questions for me left today you have about 30 min

if I get elim'd today should I shoot or not and why? And if I were to shoot, who should I shoot?

[Wam]

If you have any questions for me left today you have about 30 min

if I get elim'd today should I shoot or not and why? And if I were to shoot, who should I shoot?

Don't shoot too high risk.

[Makhaira]

Using counterevidence to nullify an argument.

Argument
Premise: Jack wouldn't kill me if he was scum.
Premise: I am alive.
Conclusion: Jack is scum.

Counterargument
Jack killed you before when he was scum. Therefore, the first premise is false, and the conclusion is unsound. Jack could be scum but not because he wouldn't kill you.

Using WIFOM to promote the idea you are town
Argument
Premise: Eating cheese is scummy.
Premise: Frank is eating cheese.
Conclusion: Frank is scummy.

Counterargument
The person who died isn't someone I would kill, therefore I am not scum.

This is not a valid counterargument. The nullifying counterargument disproves a premise of an argument, thus making it invalid. The WIFOM argument does not address the premises but introduces something new that cannot be verified.

This COMPLETELY misses the point, garbage argument, will respond in more detail when I get home from work because this needs thorough refutation

[Makhaira]

Tbh every slot in this game should explicitly provide an opinion on whether I should shoot if elim'd, why or why not, and who I should shoot if I were forced to

[Makhaira]

If you have any questions for me left today you have about 30 min

if I get elim'd today should I shoot or not and why? And if I were to shoot, who should I shoot?

Don't shoot too high risk.

If I had to shoot, who should I shoot

[Wam]

Bessie or moody.

[Seven]

You're actually one of the few people I think would kill him. You, maybe Wam cause he's chaotic and unpredictable. Best reasoning I could guess for his nk is to highlight the fact that both wagons were towny, thus making the active slots (me, ran, bessie) viable as you're doing now.

Claim or I'm dueling you.

Ok, I saw Mak respond to this and and I need to point out how illogical this is. You three were all on the Heury wagon, that's already enough for a push and flipping JC would actually be counterproductive from this point of view, since it eliminates the possibility of mafia protecting scum!JC

I guess this marks the beginning of the "is Seven snowing me?" phase of the game.

Agreed actually.

I know JC died. So I was starting there and trying to figure out why.

[somitomi]

This whole thing is silly to me in general. Do you really not see there is no way to say why JC was killed?

Why not say this instead of doing the "I actually think you're the most likely person to kill JC" shtick?

Tbh every slot in this game should explicitly provide an opinion on whether I should shoot if elim'd, why or why not, and who I should shoot if I were forced to

Not sure if you should, but if I were to take that shot I'd aim for Seven

pre-post addition:

I know JC died. So I was starting there and trying to figure out why.

And did that lead you to Mak?

It's getting late so I don't have time to wait for responses, which is annoying. I did that to myself and everyone, sorry. Having reread parts of the argument today I'm coming around to thinking this dome was a terrible idea for town, never should've let that happen and we're being powerwolfed here. EGW and Seven just decided Mak is the play today, initially not even bothering to explain it and what reasoning happens later is rather weak for this kind of steamroller. Mak's reaction wasn't great of course, but I'd start flailing a bit too if I woke up on D2 with two votes before I even got my shoes on and his posting since then has been fairly townie and the earlier shenanigans make sense in light of his claim.
So yeah, I'm letting paranoia do the voting today.
Vote: Seven
That's L-1, so careful with that hammer, Eugene.

[Seven]

Confirmation bias on my part @somi.

[Seven]

On mobile btw don’t hammer before i get back

[Seven]

This whole thing is silly to me in general. Do you really not see there is no way to say why JC was killed?

Why not say this instead of doing the "I actually think you're the most likely person to kill JC" shtick?

Tbh every slot in this game should explicitly provide an opinion on whether I should shoot if elim'd, why or why not, and who I should shoot if I were forced to

Not sure if you should, but if I were to take that shot I'd aim for Seven

pre-post addition:

I know JC died. So I was starting there and trying to figure out why.

And did that lead you to Mak?

It's getting late so I don't have time to wait for responses, which is annoying. I did that to myself and everyone, sorry. Having reread parts of the argument today I'm coming around to thinking this dome was a terrible idea for town, never should've let that happen and we're being powerwolfed here. EGW and Seven just decided Mak is the play today, initially not even bothering to explain it and what reasoning happens later is rather weak for this kind of steamroller. Mak's reaction wasn't great of course, but I'd start flailing a bit too if I woke up on D2 with two votes before I even got my shoes on and his posting since then has been fairly townie and the earlier shenanigans make sense in light of his claim.
So yeah, I'm letting paranoia do the voting today.
Vote: Seven
That's L-1, so careful with that hammer, Eugene.

Ok on computer for a bit. My thought process was this:

JC was killed. JC is ML bait so who would kill him?

Wam - yes
somitomi - unlikely considering that he was concerned with MLBs being eliminated, and this would reduce the pool size
bessie/Moody - were pushing for JC as a yeet
EGW - town

This just left Wam and Makhaira, the latter who I already thought was scum. I don't know why JC was killed. I can only speculate given what I know. Mak came into the day pushing me/bessie/ran on the basis of pushing misyeets, so I theorized that this was motive. However, it is complete speculation, and not a reason as to why I think Mak is scum.

[Seven]

I still don't think you should ever use it. Did you forget I was Captain Clark in one game where I literally had that ability. I never used it.

I'll just say this, it's to town's advantage if I use it. We just need to decide the yeet early on so I'll be using it on someone who would have been elimmed anyway.

Looks like there's a good chance I'm going to be yeeted, especially if bessie/Mak are the team, so I'll go ahead and say this now. I alluded yesterday that there was a reason I wanted to use my ability. Not being able to be killed the night after is one reason (or a lie to prevent me from being killed). The other is that if I survive the dual, I can track the people on my wagon (however, the results don't tell me which person went where, only that Y players were visited by the people on my wagon). If we were going to hammer Mak, I was going to have 3 people vote me before doing so. I wanted to keep this secret because if scum are split on the wagons and know I'm tracking those on mine, they can simply have the member on the other wagon do the kill.

[Seven]

off now, will be back an hour before deadline

[moody7277]

Im Gale, Wizard of Waterdeep (was pogging when I rolled him because I LOVE the lords of Waterdeep boardgame lol)

Which means bupkiss due to scum having safeclaims

Or it could be I didn't want a random vote to be part of what was obviously becoming a serious wagon.

Why not?

The votes in RVS are meant as jokey and not thought out, as was my vote on JC my second post (you think confirming last is a serious reason to vote someone?). At the point I unvoted, there were a couple of other votes on JC which were serious votes, and I didn't want something that was not intended as a serious vote to contribute until I could do reads, especially as at that point JC was at L-2. If you are one who feels the vote is only a tool to put pressure on a slot or express your read, then you may not participate in RVS, that may be part of why bessie doesn't.

[EGW]

I'm driving home, at a glance it feels like my town read on Somi may be wrong. More on that later, and responses.

[EGW]

So you're thinking bessie isn't Mak's partner and this was a feint to make us think Mak was bussing so we'd go for bessie after the flip?

Less of a bus, but more of a distraction. It doesn't seem to serve any purpose other than that.

I'm a little lost honestly right now. Between Seven and Mak I think Mak has higher mafia equity, although Mak posting his thoughts right now is making me second guess that. I want to go back and smell Wam's and moody's posts because I'm not sure what the former is up to right now and the latter's been kind of under the radar for me.

I don't see anything townie about his recent posting. It's a little too late posting is all it is to me. He's a good player and knows how to drum up content. His intent should have been doing that from the start.

[EGW]

Something about Somi and their voting pattern today. It seems like they are biased with this, I don't get the feeling that their decision to switch to Seven is natural.

[EGW]

Going to eat something quick and then I'll be around. Bessie, I'd like to know your thoughts. Will be viewing mobile as I eat.

[bessie]

Daily bark! (start top of page 18)
This will be fast since there’s a lot of content, so excuse the sloppiness.

A duel has been compelled. The only players available for voting for today are Seven and Makhaira. Votes to other players (including no elimination) will not be counted.

so i was wrong.PNG (85.86 KiB) Viewed 1919 times

This left your reason up to interpretation. In your mind, the reason may have been clear, but it was not to me. See here. Your assumption that I should know your reason from experience is also incorrect, as "you don't like content in confirmation posts" is not something we've ever interacted about, I believe. Further, I don't think it's something you've made explicit in any of the games we've played in.

I feel this is not true but I’m not going to waste time looking for examples right now.

See here. Curious as to how you didn't see this in your iso of me?

I was reading it as heury is scum if somi is scum.

Could you elaborate. I genuinely don't get what you're referring to.

I feel your choice of “death tunnel spiral” and “you’re gaslighting me” to describe our interactions implies that my efforts are valueless, and that I start every game with bias toward you. This is entirely untrue. I believe all content has value, even fluff (in that fluff points toward active lurking). And I don’t start with any preconceived idea of anyone’s alignment, which would be ridiculous.

Seven is scum with Mak

um wut.PNG (41.83 KiB) Viewed 1919 times

I know you don't like early claims, but do you think that's actually alignment indicative coming from Seven?

I think it is unhelpful to town regardless of who does it.

My ability is Netherese Burst. Its a day action that triggers if I am eliminated during the day phase. I can kill one slot when the ability triggers. I can make my choice during twilight or pre-set it during the day incase Im absent for twilight. I currently do not have a choice selected.

This is a lie. You forgot you are on xkcd, not Smashboards. There is no twilight in this game. Usually on xkcd, there is no posting after the hammer, like in this game.


Vote: Makhaira

Why did you capitalize wizard here

First letter of each line

Holy crap I suck worse than I thought at breadcrumbs.

Honestly the only post I didnt like from bessie here. If you knew you were posting this a minute before deadline, how realistic is it to fear a wagon swing in the last 60 seconds before deadline? If two people swapped in a coordinated fashion at EOD 1 anyway thats pretty much open wolfing and theyd be throwing the game for day 1 miselim

I explained this. We don’t know if there are voting powers in the game and heury wasn’t voting.


I'll be here until deadline but today is my wedding anniversary so I won't be sitting at my computer the whole time.

[EGW]

I think we are in a world where Seven and Bessie are both town. Somi may be scum with Mak here.

[moody7277]

Okay, so looks like I'm the deciding vote. That's...novel. I'll let discussion go until right before the deadline then put it down.

[EGW]

What does scum!heury get from doing that though? Evidently I'm going to unvote
eventually so what's the advantage he's getting from being on a nonexistent wagon?

This to me seemed like Somi may have had inside knowledge of Heury's alignment at the time, since he was defending him really hard.

[EGW]

Yeah that will happen sometime, but why us two in particular?

Any particular reason you chose to start your ISO with me and wam?

I don't like this question, nor the second quote. The reason I wanted to see other people's content here is to see how they develop reads around Mak as he's the central focus of the day. I'm noting that Somi has yet to give a reads list Day 2.

[EGW]

Mak settling on what's basically my panicky paranoid solve when he's supposed to be a good player counts against, as well as simply wanting to scum read bessie solely off the hammer. I particularly liked Seven's refutation of Mak blaming her for not getting back on EOD.

Yeah, that's not a good look, although paranoid-me is sitting in the corner asking "why has there been no pushback against the Mak elim?"

I am thinking Somi isn't really paranoid here. Feels intentional. Especially since he's mentioned that Mak has more mafia equity than Seven. Feels a bit dishonest.