Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 2)

[EGW]

Votecount 0.6

2-shot Roleblocker: Fred, Seven
Day Rolecop: Moody, Swiss, Wam, Bessie, Boomfrog, Madge, Seven
Vengeful Mafiate Swiss, Fred, Moody, Boomfrog, Fonti
1-shot Janitor Fonti
Godfather: Wam

Not voting:
Mak, Madge, Bessie (1/2) JC, Sabrar

Important Links:
Game links and Vote Counts

Notes:
Setup has been posted here for convenience.

With 12 players, it takes 7 votes to lock in a Mafia Perk. Two perks can be chosen.
The deadline for Day 0 is December 2nd, at 9:00AM EST, or when all mafia roles are locked in.

[madge]

@madge: could you please describe with your own words what the Janitor role does and why it's impact on the game is small/high?

basically the janitor can prevent the end of day elimination flipping (i.e. rolename/alignment revealing). from my post this morning it seems to be a real double-edged sword.

it has the potential to be completely irrelevant: like, in the event we happen to vote them off D1 - but that is of course equally true for any scum role (except the rolecop), but the fact it has one shot means that if they don't use it D1 if we vote them off D2 then it didn't do anything. on the flipside, say they use it d1, that means they are effectively a vanilla goon after (yes, after something Very Bad, but nonethelses!). compare that to the rolecop/godfather who could cause us problems every day of a potentially, what, 5 day game?

of course, the fact it has a potential to be completely irrelevant also means that it's a powerful role because of your precious "game balance" and "giving each faction an equal chance to win" and "not putting things in a setup just because they are FUN". it means that we lose information: if they janitor scum, then we're robbed the chance to definitively look for links. if they janitor town, then we might look for links that don't exist, or we won't know if a townie PR was killed or not (this, of course, synergises with some scum roles in obvious ways), which will give us problems in attempting to speculate about the setup (i.e. if scum chose for town to get role A, it means they probably didn't also choose role B), and also gives scum some opportunities that i would rather they didn't have

all in all, the idea of giving them limited-use powers seems logical to me. 2-shot roleblocker + 1-shot janitor actually seems like one of the less scary combos.

but the risk of janitor is very high so i support not including it. i've got pretty weak opinions on this whole thing.

the scariest 4 combos in no particular order:

- janitor + rolecop
- roleblcoker + rolecop
- janitor + godfather
- rolecop + vengeful

(my method: i mentally went through each combo and determined if it felt scary to me or not)

so it means that the rolecop actually is scary with everyone except the godfather. yeah nah, i don't like that after all

unvote: rolecop

Madge would you say this post was mid in length, or mid-long?

if it's based on Seven's classification you should ask zir

[EGW]

Day Rolecop has been hammered as of this post. One perk remains to be voted for.

[Swiss]

Smooth dodge.

Mid-long.

[EGW]

Votecount 0.7 Reset

2-shot Roleblocker: Seven
Vengeful Mafiate: Swiss, Moody, Boomfrog
1-shot Janitor
Godfather: Wam

Not voting:
Mak, Fred, Madge, JC, Fonti, Bessie, Sabrar

Important Links:
Game links and Vote Counts

Notes:
Setup has been posted here for convenience. Vote splits have been removed after a perk has been locked in, please re-vote with your single vote.

With 12 players, it takes 7 votes to lock in a Mafia Perk. One perk remains to be chosen.
The deadline for Day 0 is December 2nd, at 9:00AM EST, or when all mafia roles are locked in.

[Wam]

I should be voting Godfather

[EGW]

I removed any vote splits. Please re-vote and be aware that everyone has one vote remaining.

[Sabrar]

Smooth dodge.

Mid-long.

Why are you answering your own question?

Observation 1
Seven hammers Rolecop at the end of a lengthy post. madge unvotes Rolecop 1 minute later, also at the end of a lengthy post. Both contents organically follow from questions addressed to them, note that one of the questions was from madge to Seven.

Observation 2
Several players seem to have not read the role descriptions (possibly because they didn't know they could be clicked). If not posturing, this would impact how they play the pre-game and the first half of D0 before the confusion is cleared up.

This is all good food for a D1 analysis.

[Wam]

The bit of the godfather discussion that I don't think is being flagged is that it only helps 1/3 scum. If we can find the other 2 the links should get us close to the last even without any results.

[Sabrar]

That is true but if GF gets accepted into town-core because of their ability then they will make finding the rest harder in the first place.

[Swiss]

Smooth dodge.

Mid-long.

Why are you answering your own question?

because......she.........didn't?

Baffling

[madge]

Oh great we have rolecop and it's my fault for not thinking hard enough.

I will have to work out if I really think godfather is the least bad option with it

[moody7277]

I'm leaning towards the janitor for my other choice tbh. Yeah it sucks to not be sure but there's a 1/3 chance that the first mafia we kill is the janitor and it is moot.

Sorry madge, but a toll is a toll, and a roll is a roll. Fos: Madge

If we can find the other 2 the links should get us close to the last even without any results.

This is what I was saying[/Paul Buckman]

I still think rolecop is not as big a deal as people are thinking because scum already knows what they gave town

[madge]

Oh right yeah. Scum knows the roles. Not such a big deal.

I am thinking roleblocker.

And yeah my probability maths wasn't great but my point still stands: we could quite easily kill the janitor before they use it. I think on balance roleblocker is less dangerous tho but I will need to think about it when I have had some sleep

[JC_DADDY25]

Well, the rolecop gives the roleblocker an advantage they didn't have before, in that now they don't have to use it blindly. There is probably 2 or 3 mafia on that vote.

[JC_DADDY25]

Thank you @swiss for the compliment on my analytics regarding which mafia roles to vote, I spent a good chunk of a 5 minute break on it.

I agree with you about lynching scum too, and am now getting really good town vibes from you.

[boomfrog]

Thank you @swiss for the compliment on my analytics regarding which mafia roles to vote, I spent a good chunk of a 5 minute break on it.

I agree with you about lynching scum too, and am now getting really good town vibes from you.

Just checking, this is super sarcastic right?

[boomfrog]

@boom you said "sorry for your loss" to madge. If game based clarify. If IRL - sorry.

Just a joke about her hating D1 and being pulled into D0.

[boomfrog]

As for why I don't think RB is a big deal. Again, we have 3 PRs, they have 2 RB shots. So what if we're blocked a couple of times even if they do hit? I don't care so much about negating our abilities as I do granting scum abilities that negatively impact us. Like, if this was a mountainous game (all vanilla), and we had to give scum two roles, the choice would be rather obvious, no?

Vote: Roleblock
Vote: Rolecop

The first two nights are the most important for PRs, also weak doc clears are cast into doubt by RB even existing, masoniser can be completely negated, and cop isn't useful until 2nd result which can be delayed until it's too late.

The weak doc point should be enough by itself, especially since you agreed we likely have a weak doc.

[boomfrog]

@Swiss: I lost the quote, but I do both links and general behavior. Obviously janitor only affects the links, but that's still easily complicates an otherwise solvable web. Each unknown alignment doubles the scenarios considered in a scum team analysis.

[Wam]

For those voting for the Vengeful can you explain why 1 extra mafia kill is better than the other powers? I'm just not seeing it.

[Seven]

Sorry BoomFrog I missed your question yesterday because I was hurrying to get through everything and it wasn't directly directed at me. If the content level remains workable I will be able to play in my usual way of intensely contemplating every work in every post.

I think what he’s asking is why didn’t you include the third?

[boomfrog]

Sorry BoomFrog I missed your question yesterday because I was hurrying to get through everything and it wasn't directly directed at me. If the content level remains workable I will be able to play in my usual way of intensely contemplating every work in every post.

I think what he’s asking is why didn’t you include the third?

I'd also love reasoning behind the decisions as that's what I actually care about. But it being a rushed post makes sense. I'm hoping for a more detailed answer next big post.

[boomfrog]

For those voting for the Vengeful can you explain why 1 extra mafia kill is better than the other powers? I'm just not seeing it.

If the extra kill takes us from MYLO to LYLO is cost us nothing. If the extra kill gets blocked by a doc it cost us nothing. If the vengeful is the last mafioso elimed it cost us nothing. Outside these cases it costs us a whole extra day and is pretty bad, I agree. I'll call the Doc save 1 in 4. And I'll assume hitting MYLO vs LYLO is 50/50 which is not true but a decent rough guess. So 0.5 * 0.75 * 0.66 = about 25% chance of losing a game day to the vengeful. Maybe higher since they are likely to die before their fellows more then a random chance.

Since we already have a role cop, Role blocker will have a 4/9 chance to hit a power role N1 and 5/9 chance N2, (and higher chance if they manage to wait). So minimum average 1 night lost for a power role. Plus weak doc confirms are in doubt (weak doc doesn't get notified of a role block, so if they live they don't know if that means their target is town or it means they were roleblocked). A mason or cop night result is better then a flip because their target is confirmed and still alive. RB is way worse then vengeful, especially with the combo with day-rolecop.

[Seven]

Apologies for the hammer, I didn't check the VC before voting.

FF I want to give you some leeway[...]
I won't be giving you leeway, but you should know that I want to.

Haha

also which game did i do a crucial vig shot? i bet you it was sheeping a townie, i love sheeping townies

I believe it was Texas Hold'em, a game lost to the abyss.

Observation 1
Seven hammers Rolecop at the end of a lengthy post. madge unvotes Rolecop 1 minute later, also at the end of a lengthy post. Both contents organically follow from questions addressed to them, note that one of the questions was from madge to Seven.

Which question are you referring to?

The bit of the godfather discussion that I don't think is being flagged is that it only helps 1/3 scum. If we can find the other 2 the links should get us close to the last even without any results.

This isn't taking into account the player's ability to attract targeting by a PR. And since scum get to choose who receives what PR, they are probably going to give it to the player with the highest chance of being so. Additionally, Godfather injects misinformation when targeted by Cop, Weak Doc, and Masonizer.

For those voting for the Vengeful can you explain why 1 extra mafia kill is better than the other powers? I'm just not seeing it.

If the extra kill takes us from MYLO to LYLO is cost us nothing. If the extra kill gets blocked by a doc it cost us nothing. If the vengeful is the last mafioso elimed it cost us nothing. Outside these cases it costs us a whole extra day and is pretty bad, I agree. I'll call the Doc save 1 in 4. And I'll assume hitting MYLO vs LYLO is 50/50 which is not true but a decent rough guess. So 0.5 * 0.75 * 0.66 = about 25% chance of losing a game day to the vengeful. Maybe higher since they are likely to die before their fellows more then a random chance.

Your analysis needs to take into account the probability of Vig hitting town and Weak Doc hitting scum, especially since we likely have both of those roles in this game.

Since we already have a role cop, Role blocker will have a 4/9 chance to hit a power role N1 and 5/9 chance N2, (and higher chance if they manage to wait). So minimum average 1 night lost for a power role. Plus weak doc confirms are in doubt (weak doc doesn't get notified of a role block, so if they live they don't know if that means their target is town or it means they were roleblocked). A mason or cop night result is better then a flip because their target is confirmed and still alive. RB is way worse then vengeful, especially with the combo with day-rolecop.

It's even higher than that I think. If they investigate the player that isn't eliminated and we eliminate a VT, then they either investigated a PR (3/9), in which case they have a 100% chance of blocking them, or they investigated a VT (4/9), in which case they have a 3/7 chance of hitting a PR. So about 61.5% chance of hitting a PR given these assumptions and assuming they only use 1 shot N1 (I believe they can use both if they so choose).

That being said, given what roles we have, I don't think it's a big deal. If Vig gets blocked, oh well, and perhaps good fortune. So really we should be treating it as a 2/9 chance thing rather than 3/9 as the other two PRs are what we'd really like to avoid being blocked. And of those, Mason is really the only one that is fully negated, and I think it's unlikely we have one. With regard to your point about Weak Doc, the results aren't permanently cast into doubt. We will be able to reconstruct whether they were roleblocked at some point based on the actions of our Cop and Vig. For example, if Cop is blocked or Vig shot doesn't go through on a non-Doc protect, we'll know Weak Doc wasn't blocked. Alternatively, if Weak Doc isn't blocked, then we will have our results from Cop to compensate. In other words, scum are limited in just how much they can do. We have a surplus and are going to get information regardless.