Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 2)

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EGW
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by EGW »

Votecount 0.5

2-shot Roleblocker: Fred
Day Rolecop: Moody, Swiss, Wam
Vengeful Mafiate Swiss, Fred, Moody
1-shot Janitor
Godfather: Wam

Not voting:
Boomfrog, Mak, Madge, Seven, JC, Fonti, Bessie, Sabrar

Important Links:
Game links and Vote Counts

Notes:
Setup has been posted here for convenience. Countdown link added below.

With 12 players, it takes 7 votes to lock in a Mafia Perk. Two perks can be chosen.
The deadline for Day 0 is December 2nd, at 9:00AM EST, or when all mafia roles are locked in.
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JC_DADDY25
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by JC_DADDY25 »

I'm leaning toward the roles that have limited use at the moment.
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bessie
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by bessie »

Daily bark!

Freddino18 wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 6:33 am Isn't the saying that you can always teach an old dog new tricks? If you're town and town wins I'll give you a Scooby Snack.
roh boy.jpg
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Sabrar wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 8:32 am In this game Janitor can only clean someone who we yeet, it is very different from a night-Janitor. We want to know whether we were right because we need a known scum-flip to identify connections (or in case of a town-flip we want to see who pushed it for nefarious reasons).
Ok I understand now. I was thinking it was something mafia would use on town, not on themselves. Yeah, janitor isn’t happening.

Swiss wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:46 am Everyone exclusively just banging on about mechanics and not playing mafia. At what point did these things become mutually exclusive. Stacked game my ass. Let's just lock in some perks and start lynching.
On this forum we love talking about setup and mechanics. And it’s D0 so we aren’t eliminating today anyway. And we should always have lots of talking.

Swiss wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:46 am @mod why did Huery replace
Noting this for now, because I think it is odd you would ask this.

Swiss wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:46 am Bessie mega post null
I was hoping to be wow'd
Seven posted his first. How was I going to follow that?
I have given you my opinions of everyone’s strengths and weaknesses as a player. If you have any specific questions ask me, otherwise I don’t know what you’re expecting.

madge wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:00 pm There was one cheating allegation (I'm sure Bessie has already brought it up) where someone made a reference to something someone said (e.g. "Sabrar said I was acting like a mackeral in a soup tin, but I'll have you know...") and the mod posted basically saying "Sabrar said that ONLY in a spoiler in the discussion thread" and modkilled the offender). I don't think I was ther for it but I heard the legend.
If you read my post and not just the parts about YOU, you would know that I already posted a link to the game in question. And you played in it.


For mafia perks, I think the Day Rolecop, because I don’t think it will be all that useful. I’m expecting at least one of the power roles to claim early no matter how hard I protest.


Vote: Day Rolecop
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Seven
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by Seven »

George is my favorite host because he always has the cleanest mod posts. The color scheme they are using is gorgeous.

I tried generating a Swiss pony but they've all come out as terrifying hole-filled (ha) abominations.

What does nb mean?
boomfrog wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:20 pm Finally read the setup. Y'all skipped an excellent discussion point.

If you were mafia what town roles would you have given to town? Swiss, sabrar, fomti and Seven save your answers until after the others.
@bessie @Madge @JC, could you respond to this if you haven't yet?
Sabrar wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 8:32 am
Seven wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 4:50 am This is what I'm getting at. It's possible, and I think straightforward for someone with your know-how, to determine the optimal choices given that town doesn't know what scum chose.
In the old days I would have mapped out the 100 different scenarios, made some simplifications to reduce the number, assigned some rankings and then run some statistics and I would have been able to give you the answer you are looking for. However since then my obsession with Mafia has been somewhat diminished, mostly because I am spending more time on other things. Also, we want everyone to publish their unbiased thoughts first, before going into details (similar to why BF asked us to refrain commenting on his question).
Given that the playerbase is stacked AND assuming that no misinterpretations occur (which we already know might not be the case) AND assuming that the analysis is made from a Vanilla Town pov, we can have a reasonable guess on the town role-distribution and with that in mind it is possible to make an optimal play. We can discuss this later during the day.
Fair.
Freddino18 wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:59 am The problem with a Vengie boi is that it has the potential to flip a 3v2 into a scum win with only a 1 in 5 chance of town pulling that one out, and scum can pick their worst player to be sacked for an easy extra kill.
This is a great point and I'm now against Venge. @Fonti what do you think of this? Also, @Fred I'm uncertain why you voted for it after making this point.
Wam wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 12:51 pm vote Godfather
Day Rolecop
Something about this pings me. Maybe it's because it came right after Fred posted this:
Freddino18 wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:59 amIf I was voting for town perks as scum, I would get weak doc, Vig, and Cop, and hope to receive Godfather and Janitor. Backup for Janitor would be day cop.
Wam wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 2:16 pm Ignore that have worked out what you meant.
What did they mean?

Post 1 of 2 - I'll be back later.
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aka Zen, Xivii, Hari Seldon, Ro Laren, Spirit, Khepri
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fontisian
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by fontisian »

@Xivii

We're starting with an even number of players. Baseline, we get 2.5 potential missed town sided kills this game. The 0.5 doesn't really matter except that each vig shot or successful doc save adds +0.5 to that count. A vengeful mafia that goes off and allows scum to get an extra kill (which may not happen because an extra kill increases their chances of running into a doc save, if we have them) subtracts 0.5 from the count.

I'm going to dive into how I see mafia for a sec.When viewed as a numbers game, mafia is how many town players we need to not misyeet or miskill in order to win. Baseline, with 2.5 allowed town misses, we need to not kill 6.5 town (for the sake of figuring out how many people town needs to correctly not yeet, always round up). 3 of those town are going to be prs, and therefore easier to townread or let scum shoot. Each vig shot or succesful doc save lowers the number of clears needed by 0.5. A cop can create clears, which subtracts from the number of behavioral clears needed by 1 each. A Mason can create 3 clears, if used well. A weak doc can potentially create a clear each night, if they don't fuck up. A godfather has the potential to ruin all of those info role based clears. A rolecop, especially a day rolecop, allows scum to kill prs before they provide clears, make good shots, or get saves. A roleblocker allows scum to interfere with prs creating clears, or with the prs clearing themselves. A jailer makes interaction analysis harder, and hurts in cases where, say, we fuck up horrible and yeet a pr, but it doesn't really affect the number of clears needed.

With all that is mind, a vengeful mafia only adding 0.5 to the clears needed, and only doing that if we yeet them first or second, is not that bad, in my opinion.
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boomfrog
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by boomfrog »

I think it's very likely we got a weak doc, and roleblocker completely destroys the confirmation side of weak doc because they are not informed of a RB. So that's out.

Janitor is out. Flips are town's most potent info tool.

Rolecop is meh so probably in.

Vengeful or GF. If we have weak doc and vig numbers can get tight fast. Although, a vig can tip the scales in a 3 vs 2 vs vengeful. And they need to lose the right mafioso at exactly the right time for it to really matter.

Let's do it.

Vote rolecop
Vote Vengeful


I'm willing to move on, although I would like my question answered as Seven reiterated.
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fontisian
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by fontisian »

Ok, I'm done with role theory.

Vote Janitor
Vote Vengeful

Rolecop/Vengeful is fine.

Let's play some fucking mafia.
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boomfrog
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by boomfrog »

fontisian wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:46 am @Xivii

We're starting with an even number of players. Baseline, we get 2.5 potential missed town sided kills this game. The 0.5 doesn't really matter except that each vig shot or successful doc save adds +0.5 to that count. A vengeful mafia that goes off and allows scum to get an extra kill (which may not happen because an extra kill increases their chances of running into a doc save, if we have them) subtracts 0.5 from the count.

I'm going to dive into how I see mafia for a sec.When viewed as a numbers game, mafia is how many town players we need to not misyeet or miskill in order to win. Baseline, with 2.5 allowed town misses, we need to not kill 6.5 town (for the sake of figuring out how many people town needs to correctly not yeet, always round up). 3 of those town are going to be prs, and therefore easier to townread or let scum shoot. Each vig shot or succesful doc save lowers the number of clears needed by 0.5. A cop can create clears, which subtracts from the number of behavioral clears needed by 1 each. A Mason can create 3 clears, if used well. A weak doc can potentially create a clear each night, if they don't fuck up. A godfather has the potential to ruin all of those info role based clears. A rolecop, especially a day rolecop, allows scum to kill prs before they provide clears, make good shots, or get saves. A roleblocker allows scum to interfere with prs creating clears, or with the prs clearing themselves. A jailer makes interaction analysis harder, and hurts in cases where, say, we fuck up horrible and yeet a pr, but it doesn't really affect the number of clears needed.

With all that is mind, a vengeful mafia only adding 0.5 to the clears needed, and only doing that if we yeet them first or second, is not that bad, in my opinion.
Love this analysis angle. But I get most of my clears behaviorally and janitor really hurts that. I feel like it would give us -2 clears easily.
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boomfrog
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by boomfrog »

Sabrar wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 8:32 am
bessie wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 3:52 am I don’t get what’s so great about the janitor. It appears there are no indies in the game, and no town or mafia roles that don’t flip as part of an ability. If a player flips without an alignment reveal, can’t we just assume they are town?
In this game Janitor can only clean someone who we yeet, it is very different from a night-Janitor. We want to know whether we were right because we need a known scum-flip to identify connections (or in case of a town-flip we want to see who pushed it for nefarious reasons).
Seven wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 4:50 am This is what I'm getting at. It's possible, and I think straightforward for someone with your know-how, to determine the optimal choices given that town doesn't know what scum chose.
In the old days I would have mapped out the 100 different scenarios, made some simplifications to reduce the number, assigned some rankings and then run some statistics and I would have been able to give you the answer you are looking for. However since then my obsession with Mafia has been somewhat diminished, mostly because I am spending more time on other things. Also, we want everyone to publish their unbiased thoughts first, before going into details (similar to why BF asked us to refrain commenting on his question).
Given that the playerbase is stacked AND assuming that no misinterpretations occur (which we already know might not be the case) AND assuming that the analysis is made from a Vanilla Town pov, we can have a reasonable guess on the town role-distribution and with that in mind it is possible to make an optimal play. We can discuss this later during the day.
Why did you not speculate on what mafia would select for town PRs as the foundation of your analysis?
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fontisian
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by fontisian »

boomfrog wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:01 am
fontisian wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:46 am @Xivii

We're starting with an even number of players. Baseline, we get 2.5 potential missed town sided kills this game. The 0.5 doesn't really matter except that each vig shot or successful doc save adds +0.5 to that count. A vengeful mafia that goes off and allows scum to get an extra kill (which may not happen because an extra kill increases their chances of running into a doc save, if we have them) subtracts 0.5 from the count.

I'm going to dive into how I see mafia for a sec.When viewed as a numbers game, mafia is how many town players we need to not misyeet or miskill in order to win. Baseline, with 2.5 allowed town misses, we need to not kill 6.5 town (for the sake of figuring out how many people town needs to correctly not yeet, always round up). 3 of those town are going to be prs, and therefore easier to townread or let scum shoot. Each vig shot or succesful doc save lowers the number of clears needed by 0.5. A cop can create clears, which subtracts from the number of behavioral clears needed by 1 each. A Mason can create 3 clears, if used well. A weak doc can potentially create a clear each night, if they don't fuck up. A godfather has the potential to ruin all of those info role based clears. A rolecop, especially a day rolecop, allows scum to kill prs before they provide clears, make good shots, or get saves. A roleblocker allows scum to interfere with prs creating clears, or with the prs clearing themselves. A jailer makes interaction analysis harder, and hurts in cases where, say, we fuck up horrible and yeet a pr, but it doesn't really affect the number of clears needed.

With all that is mind, a vengeful mafia only adding 0.5 to the clears needed, and only doing that if we yeet them first or second, is not that bad, in my opinion.
Love this analysis angle. But I get most of my clears behaviorally and janitor really hurts that. I feel like it would give us -2 clears easily.
I disagree, but I'm willing to concede that the consensus is not with me .
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boomfrog
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by boomfrog »

Swiss wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:46 am I wait with bated breath
Huh, I always thought it was baited breath, like a bizarre monstrous ambush predator. This makes more sense.
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madge
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by madge »

Seven wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:10 am
boomfrog wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:20 pm Finally read the setup. Y'all skipped an excellent discussion point.

If you were mafia what town roles would you have given to town? Swiss, sabrar, fomti and Seven save your answers until after the others.
@bessie @Madge @JC, could you respond to this if you haven't yet?
If I were mafia I would have replaced in to whatever Heury decided with scummates, so if this is for catching me out later then it's of limited use, but if it's just for discussion purposes I will answer:

- I wouldn't give them masoniser, masons are strong imo
- Vig I'd be OK with, it's more likely to kill a townie than a scumread because of numbers, but it's of course extremely dangerous in the hands of a competant townie (and mafia wouldn't know i was in the player pool so couldn't rely on me me me being the vig)
- the weak doctor seems strictly worse than doctor as the weak doctor would really struggle to breadcrumb appropriately. that said, as town i'd rather be the weak doctor because people know i like to crumb, and i would crumb (let this go into my meta)
- cop's unknown sanity is interesting, makes the role extremely useful on d4, if they live that long

I would never give them a cop and a doctor of either stripe, obviously.

I think based on the above, as scum I'd give them a vig and a regular doctor, because the regular doctor can protect the mafia

Vote: Rolecop

I'm leaning towards the janitor for my other choice tbh. Yeah it sucks to not be sure but there's a 1/3 chance that the first mafia we kill is the janitor and it is moot.

I have taken the liberty of generating a pony for Swiss (spoiler is just to avoid it taking up space, of course anyone may read):
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
d11489b9-53ca-4922-9384-1bdc64a0fa05.jpg
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madge, ratammer's ponywife, she/her
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by madge »

Just saw Swiss has male pronouns, here's a male pony option:
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bessie
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by bessie »

Seven wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:10 am
boomfrog wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:20 pm Finally read the setup. Y'all skipped an excellent discussion point.

If you were mafia what town roles would you have given to town? Swiss, sabrar, fomti and Seven save your answers until after the others.
@bessie @Madge @JC, could you respond to this if you haven't yet?
Cop and Doctor.
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boomfrog
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by boomfrog »

bessie wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 6:19 am
Seven wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:10 am
boomfrog wrote: Tue Nov 28, 2023 5:20 pm Finally read the setup. Y'all skipped an excellent discussion point.

If you were mafia what town roles would you have given to town? Swiss, sabrar, fomti and Seven save your answers until after the others.
@bessie @Madge @JC, could you respond to this if you haven't yet?
Cop and Doctor.
Why have you answered in this way? Do you not like my question?
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bessie
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by bessie »

Sorry BoomFrog I missed your question yesterday because I was hurrying to get through everything and it wasn't directly directed at me. If the content level remains workable I will be able to play in my usual way of intensely contemplating every work in every post.
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Sabrar
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by Sabrar »

boomfrog wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:02 am Why did you not speculate on what mafia would select for town PRs as the foundation of your analysis?
Because I haven't made an analysis yet? I think excluding Janitor is trivial and the rest is situational as described previously.

@madge: could you please describe with your own words what the Janitor role does and why it's impact on the game is small/high?
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Wam
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by Wam »

Seven wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:10 am
Wam wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 2:16 pm Ignore that have worked out what you meant.
What did they mean?

Post 1 of 2 - I'll be back later.
Thay was at font not fred.
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Seven
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by Seven »

madge wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:00 pm@Seven: can you do a personality analysis on ME ME ME ME
Madge
PN: She
Origin: xkcd
MBTI: ENTJ
Hobby: Pizzazz
Activity:
Average: 1.5/day
Size: short, mid (town); mid, mid-long (scum)
T/M Gravity: +0.6
Games Played Together: ~5 (0)
Attributes:
Core: Collaborative
Ancillary: Creative, Vibrant, Off-the-cuff, Technical
Details: As has been mentioned, Madge is known for not caring for the early days of the game, and perceives her ability to find scum D1 as essentially random. For this reason, she will often find a player that she trusts and sheep their vote, at least in the early days. She is analytical and prefers to solve through mechanical information, so gains her footing as the game progresses. While she downplays her ability, she is quite brilliant. Her comment about scum not being able to rely on her being a vig is particularly ironic, as she once cost me a scum win by vigging me at a critical moment. Her mafia play is where she shines brightest, however. Her creativity and analytical abilities make for a dangerous combination, as was seen in Songs of Our Time where she had everyone fooled up until the very end. Those two qualities also lead to what she is perhaps best known for, fun and captivating flavor that people actually take the time to read, integrated into unique setups. Her writing also extends beyond the mafia realm -- she has a completed novel, a link to which can be found in her sig. Madge resides in Australia, and recently obtained a new position where she appraises the safety of all major road projects in her region.
madge wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:59 am Just saw Swiss has male pronouns, here's a male pony option:
Spoiler (Show/Hide)
a58028a8-9872-4055-896f-2b045427aa1f.jpg
These are how my initials ones came out, but Swiss isn't Swiss. I tried giving it Swiss cheese as a cutie mark but it just turned the pony into the Swiss cheese abomination. I'd also make it black for the black lab theme. I was also thinking of adding in elements of this character as it's the avatar Swiss had for many years.
Wam wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 8:45 am
Seven wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:10 am
Wam wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 2:16 pm Ignore that have worked out what you meant.
What did they mean?

Post 1 of 2 - I'll be back later.
Thay was at font not fred.
I know. What did they mean?

Here's where I fall on the roles. Fonti's breakdown has convinced me vengeful is an acceptable poison. However, I do still prefer RB and RC. There is a lot of potential KP in the game already (Vig and WD misfires). Our numbers can dwindle quickly from misfires and I don't want to give scum even more kill power. So I will vote RB for now, but will switch to venge if needed.

I agree with Boom that it's likely we have a w.doc, perhaps because either a) scum didn't realize how powerful of a role it is or b) they realized its potential to benefit them when it misfires. I would argue that Mason is the strongest town PR and that Weak Doc is a close second. The "weak" is a misnomer because as has been mentioned, it can provide a clear each night, giving it the greatest clearing ability of any of the investigatives (in addition to its protection). We probably don't have a normal doc due to the eternal dual protection that having two docs could perform, although the legendary scum player in the aforementioned game disregarded that and chose two docs anyway. We also likely have a Vig if the scum team read the role descriptions. Considering not everyone was aware there were descriptions, I'm not entirely sure how valid that assumption is. Frozen and Wam were under the assumption that Mason would die if they incorrectly targeted, so a scum team with this belief may have chose Mason. Otherwise, we probably don't have both a Cop and Mason, and thus have a Vig.

Based on the arguments and vote placements today, I don't think scum actually want RB over the other roles. This leads me to suspect that they chose PRs that they believe could either benefit them (Vig, Weak Doc, Mason [that dies upon targeting mafia]) or that they could subvert with Godfather (Weak Doc, Cop, Mason).

So there are two groups of players I will be looking at going forward, those pushing against RB & in favor of Venge (Fonti comes to mind) and those pushing for Godfather (Wam comes to mind but I believe there were others hinting at it).

As for why I don't think RB is a big deal. Again, we have 3 PRs, they have 2 RB shots. So what if we're blocked a couple of times even if they do hit? I don't care so much about negating our abilities as I do granting scum abilities that negatively impact us. Like, if this was a mountainous game (all vanilla), and we had to give scum two roles, the choice would be rather obvious, no?

Vote: Roleblock
Vote: Rolecop
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by madge »

Sabrar wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 8:41 am @madge: could you please describe with your own words what the Janitor role does and why it's impact on the game is small/high?
basically the janitor can prevent the end of day elimination flipping (i.e. rolename/alignment revealing). from my post this morning it seems to be a real double-edged sword.

it has the potential to be completely irrelevant: like, in the event we happen to vote them off D1 - but that is of course equally true for any scum role (except the rolecop), but the fact it has one shot means that if they don't use it D1 if we vote them off D2 then it didn't do anything. on the flipside, say they use it d1, that means they are effectively a vanilla goon after (yes, after something Very Bad, but nonethelses!). compare that to the rolecop/godfather who could cause us problems every day of a potentially, what, 5 day game?

of course, the fact it has a potential to be completely irrelevant also means that it's a powerful role because of your precious "game balance" and "giving each faction an equal chance to win" and "not putting things in a setup just because they are FUN". it means that we lose information: if they janitor scum, then we're robbed the chance to definitively look for links. if they janitor town, then we might look for links that don't exist, or we won't know if a townie PR was killed or not (this, of course, synergises with some scum roles in obvious ways), which will give us problems in attempting to speculate about the setup (i.e. if scum chose for town to get role A, it means they probably didn't also choose role B), and also gives scum some opportunities that i would rather they didn't have

all in all, the idea of giving them limited-use powers seems logical to me. 2-shot roleblocker + 1-shot janitor actually seems like one of the less scary combos.

but the risk of janitor is very high so i support not including it. i've got pretty weak opinions on this whole thing.

the scariest 4 combos in no particular order:

- janitor + rolecop
- roleblcoker + rolecop
- janitor + godfather
- rolecop + vengeful

(my method: i mentally went through each combo and determined if it felt scary to me or not)

so it means that the rolecop actually is scary with everyone except the godfather. yeah nah, i don't like that after all

unvote: rolecop
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by madge »

awww thank you for the compliments seven!!!!! you are very great

i didn't consider Swiss's pony having Switzerland-themed cutie mark a problem, but ok. I'll generate a new one.
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by Swiss »

FF I want to give you some leeway because Zen is posting hella different now. But I no likey. No likey at all.
I won't be giving you leeway, but you should know that I want to.
As an aside how I can remember Zen and your posting styles and not remember hydraing with Huery still blows me away. My mind is truly incredibe.

@boom you said "sorry for your loss" to madge. If game based clarify. If IRL - sorry.

Madge wall good
JC_DADDY25 wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 11:49 pm I'm leaning toward the roles that have limited use at the moment.
Fantastic analysis.

My suggestion would also be to lynch scum, what do you guys think?
bessie wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 3:57 am
Swiss wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:46 am @mod why did Huery replace
Noting this for now, because I think it is odd you would ask this.
Dgames were always open about why they replaced, normally from the player I admit.
Replacing d1 with a wooly "im busy sorry guys, cant keep up", in a 'stacked' game, after committing to a full game screams "crap I rolled scum and im scared".

While I have you Bessie. I feel that you're not being as crystal clear as you were in the other game we played (yes I even re-read almost all the game, golly aren't I a good boy).
bessie wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 3:57 am
Swiss wrote: Wed Nov 29, 2023 10:46 am Bessie mega post null
I was hoping to be wow'd
Seven posted his first. How was I going to follow that?
I have given you my opinions of everyone’s strengths and weaknesses as a player. If you have any specific questions ask me, otherwise I don’t know what you’re expecting.
You don't need to follow, or even improve on Zen's wall of info (not content, info). I called it null, not scummy. Don't be scum please - would feel like a betrayal.
Seven wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:10 am I tried generating a Swiss pony but they've all come out as terrifying hole-filled (ha) abominations.
I would sooner burn my piercing blue eyes from their sockets.
fontisian wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:46 am @Xivii

We're starting with an even number of players. Baseline, we get 2.5 potential missed town sided kills this game. The 0.5 doesn't really matter except that each vig shot or successful doc save adds +0.5 to that count. A vengeful mafia that goes off and allows scum to get an extra kill (which may not happen because an extra kill increases their chances of running into a doc save, if we have them) subtracts 0.5 from the count.

I'm going to dive into how I see mafia for a sec.When viewed as a numbers game, mafia is how many town players we need to not misyeet or miskill in order to win. Baseline, with 2.5 allowed town misses, we need to not kill 6.5 town (for the sake of figuring out how many people town needs to correctly not yeet, always round up). 3 of those town are going to be prs, and therefore easier to townread or let scum shoot. Each vig shot or succesful doc save lowers the number of clears needed by 0.5. A cop can create clears, which subtracts from the number of behavioral clears needed by 1 each. A Mason can create 3 clears, if used well. A weak doc can potentially create a clear each night, if they don't fuck up. A godfather has the potential to ruin all of those info role based clears. A rolecop, especially a day rolecop, allows scum to kill prs before they provide clears, make good shots, or get saves. A roleblocker allows scum to interfere with prs creating clears, or with the prs clearing themselves. A jailer makes interaction analysis harder, and hurts in cases where, say, we fuck up horrible and yeet a pr, but it doesn't really affect the number of clears needed.

With all that is mind, a vengeful mafia only adding 0.5 to the clears needed, and only doing that if we yeet them first or second, is not that bad, in my opinion.
That's a crazy way to see the game.
Are you better at playing town or scum?
boomfrog wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:58 am I think it's very likely we got a weak doc, and roleblocker completely destroys the confirmation side of weak doc because they are not informed of a RB. So that's out.

Janitor is out. Flips are town's most potent info tool.

Rolecop is meh so probably in.

Vengeful or GF. If we have weak doc and vig numbers can get tight fast. Although, a vig can tip the scales in a 3 vs 2 vs vengeful. And they need to lose the right mafioso at exactly the right time for it to really matter.

Let's do it.

Vote rolecop
Vote Vengeful


I'm willing to move on, although I would like my question answered as Seven reiterated.
Good.
fontisian wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:59 am Ok, I'm done with role theory.

Vote Janitor
Vote Vengeful

Rolecop/Vengeful is fine.

Let's play some fucking mafia.
Also good.
boomfrog wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:01 am Love this analysis angle. But I get most of my clears behaviorally and janitor really hurts that. I feel like it would give us -2 clears easily.
Behaviourally as in relationships between players, or also the behaviour of the player in a vacuum?
madge wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:48 am If I were mafia I would have replaced in to whatever Heury decided with scummates, so if this is for catching me out later then it's of limited use, but if it's just for discussion purposes I will answer:
You needed to say this why?

If not janitor, what would be your secondary pick?

And thank you for the pic, but I would sooner sacrifice my firstborn than use it.
The Great Deceiver / He Who Shall Not Be Blamed / Swiss Of A Thousand Plans
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by Swiss »

madge wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 9:07 am
Sabrar wrote: Thu Nov 30, 2023 8:41 am @madge: could you please describe with your own words what the Janitor role does and why it's impact on the game is small/high?
basically the janitor can prevent the end of day elimination flipping (i.e. rolename/alignment revealing). from my post this morning it seems to be a real double-edged sword.

it has the potential to be completely irrelevant: like, in the event we happen to vote them off D1 - but that is of course equally true for any scum role (except the rolecop), but the fact it has one shot means that if they don't use it D1 if we vote them off D2 then it didn't do anything. on the flipside, say they use it d1, that means they are effectively a vanilla goon after (yes, after something Very Bad, but nonethelses!). compare that to the rolecop/godfather who could cause us problems every day of a potentially, what, 5 day game?

of course, the fact it has a potential to be completely irrelevant also means that it's a powerful role because of your precious "game balance" and "giving each faction an equal chance to win" and "not putting things in a setup just because they are FUN". it means that we lose information: if they janitor scum, then we're robbed the chance to definitively look for links. if they janitor town, then we might look for links that don't exist, or we won't know if a townie PR was killed or not (this, of course, synergises with some scum roles in obvious ways), which will give us problems in attempting to speculate about the setup (i.e. if scum chose for town to get role A, it means they probably didn't also choose role B), and also gives scum some opportunities that i would rather they didn't have

all in all, the idea of giving them limited-use powers seems logical to me. 2-shot roleblocker + 1-shot janitor actually seems like one of the less scary combos.

but the risk of janitor is very high so i support not including it. i've got pretty weak opinions on this whole thing.

the scariest 4 combos in no particular order:

- janitor + rolecop
- roleblcoker + rolecop
- janitor + godfather
- rolecop + vengeful

(my method: i mentally went through each combo and determined if it felt scary to me or not)

so it means that the rolecop actually is scary with everyone except the godfather. yeah nah, i don't like that after all

unvote: rolecop
Madge would you say this post was mid in length, or mid-long?
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by Wam »

@seven I hadn't clocked that the mafia could choose who got which roles until after I read fonts post and went back and checked.
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Re: Pick Your Poison Mafia (Day 0)

Post by madge »

no IRL losses fear not

i said the if i were scum thing or whatever because i wanted to feel cool and smrt 8-)

also which game did i do a crucial vig shot? i bet you it was sheeping a townie, i love sheeping townies


Here we go, prompt: "A male pony named Swiss in the style of My Little Pony, friendship is magic, without any reference to Switzerland"
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but this one doesn't make sense because he's got mane/tail fur on the bottom left on the image with no obvious source and this is something i don't like about image generations

given you seem to hate ponies ( :( ), this might be more to your taste: (prompt: A male gryphon named Swiss. Still from my little pony: friendship is magic)
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madge, ratammer's ponywife, she/her
Plug: my vampire romance novel is finished!
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