HaiLOWEEN 2023: AI apocalypse

[AdumbroDeus]

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Woof.

Per my N2 results, either you or moody is scum. Why didn’t you check moody? FoS somitomi.

Like moody, I hadn't quite processed Mak's flip so I thought verifying you (and by extension your results) would be more useful, since you could clear one of us by toDay. At least so I thought since you implied you still had a shot left.
I realise it isn't that useful for us as things stand, although from my point of view it does solve the game by PoE.

What does Mak’s flip, or me having or not having a remaining shot factor in to your reasoning? I’m not following.

Ok, so why last night and not the night before? We already talked about Seven being an odd target.

The big problem with trying to figure out framer targets, at least imo, was mak was so inactive this game.

Ultimately I'm trying to understand how you're thinking about things

You mean why was Seven killed on N3 and not you or JC? Redirection or trying to avoid a power role (doctor, watcher, etc). Or LaserGuy not wanting to talk too much in chat. Seven is a good scum hunter despite his performance in tunneling me all game. Or the killer has a lyncher-type win condition, which if you remember is why I didn’t think we should name claim.

if Somi is scum, assuming a 2 person scumteam, who do you think is their partner?

moody

We were discussing Gluelock on EGW specifically and I was confused what they meant because we were positive the humans didn't have kills. They clarified it as what people would assume alignment indicative.

@Adum and LaserGuy, then what do you think is their win condition and how do they achieve it?

If we're dealing with a serial killer, paranoia says bessie could be it, deceiving us with her claim like a mastermind.

beware of dog.PNG




Going out my husband has a gig but I might be back around 11 pm.

damnit, wanted to talk about one more thing with you.

I think that seven's theory was right, they were trying to kill otherscum to get their NK.

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[moody7277]

if Somi is scum, assuming a 2 person scumteam, who do you think is their partner?

moody

Is that because you are interpreting my perennial default vote on somi the past two Days to be distancing?

@Adum: 7-3-2-1 would put town in a plurality situation after a D1 miselim. That seems like a bit more pizzaz than Sabrar would think wise (and yes I realize metagaming the mods is the last resort of the desperate, )

[AdumbroDeus]

@Adum: 7-3-2-1 would put town in a plurality situation after a D1 miselim. That seems like a bit more pizzaz than Sabrar would think wise (and yes I realize metagaming the mods is the last resort of the desperate, )

Yep that was my thought when the mods announced that they'd let us know if a faction was eliminated and the game didn't end.

Until last night phase, I was still considering the possibility of an SK, but now I know basically for sure we have a Mafia.

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[AdumbroDeus]

Ok, so why last night and not the night before? We already talked about Seven being an odd target.

The big problem with trying to figure out framer targets, at least imo, was mak was so inactive this game.

Ultimately I'm trying to understand how you're thinking about things

You mean why was Seven killed on N3 and not you or JC? Redirection or trying to avoid a power role (doctor, watcher, etc). Or LaserGuy not wanting to talk too much in chat. Seven is a good scum hunter despite his performance in tunneling me all game. Or the killer has a lyncher-type win condition, which if you remember is why I didn’t think we should name claim.

I have a theory, it could be bunnies. She's a strong hunter but still kinda mislynch bait at this point.

But you know, we could just ask the scumteam.

Hey @somi, why did your scumteam kill Seven that night?

Just wanted to verify my answer is correct.

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[AdumbroDeus]

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For clarity, yes, I am claiming that I used Somi's chat cop power on them and found out that they have a chat.

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[AdumbroDeus]

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I still want to use the rest of the day, so don't vote yet please.

There's still Somi's buddy to figure out.
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[moody7277]

Just to let you know ahead of time, I probably won't be online at the deadline, which happens to be at 6am my time on the 4th, so I'll finalize my vote the previous evening.

[AdumbroDeus]

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Anyway, as far as my theory for why (don't expect a useful answer from Somi for obvious reasons) is, I'm pretty sure I was the obvious NK target the night Seven died, but by demanding Somi confirm their power on me I made it so it would bring attention to Somi if I died.

So the plan was to let me confirm the power then kill me before I could reveal the results.

Only they didn't know that I had a second bodyguard following me for days.

I'll say this, I think it was a mistake for me to use it on Somi. My concern was that I was unable to get a good read on them so I wanted to know if I could trust them, but since they're basically a cop and Seven is dead I should've realize that if this scenario happened (they try to kill me the night I would want to use the chat cop power and Somi is still alive), there's no way Somi was reasonably town so I should've used it on either Bessie or Moody.

My tinfoil hat theory about JC was a Somi/JC scumteam where the bodyguard power was a red herring JC was making me think I was protected and would let me die the night I needed it to prevent me from chat copping.

Btw in case anyone was wondering, this is the post I crumbed JC's power: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=917&p=53266&hilit=Spirit#p53266

I actually said "in the spirit of cooperation" to start the message (after system.out.prinln obviously) as a breadcrumb to Laser about the post.

I didn't know it was JC's power yet, obviously. Thought GC had a power similar to mine at first and got it from BF, I didn't know JC was the bodyguard power I got until I learned who the last visiter that night was in mass-claims (from laser iirc).

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[bessie]

Bonus bark!

damnit, wanted to talk about one more thing with you.

I think that seven's theory was right, they were trying to kill otherscum to get their NK.

I just got home and I’m not planning on being awake for too long.

My perfect mafia recall is failing me. I will need to look through Seven’s posts because I don’t recall this theory. But except for Triss’s power their other powers don’t really help them identify the other scum team. I still think that George may have been able to kill if he used his ability on the right target, maybe this is how they could kill other mafia.

Is that because you are interpreting my perennial default vote on somi the past two Days to be distancing?

No it’s because of my night results. If there were exactly one scum from each of two teams in my target group, I should have an inconclusive result, not “scum wins”. With JC flipping town and Mak being the last human, Laser is probably not scum.

I have a theory, it could be bunnies.

bessies bunnies.PNG (391.27 KiB) Viewed 24677 times

Anyway, as far as my theory for why (don't expect a useful answer from Somi for obvious reasons) is, I'm pretty sure I was the obvious NK target the night Seven died, but by demanding Somi confirm their power on me I made it so it would bring attention to Somi if I died.

Or it would be the perfect opportunity to kill you because if somi was tracked, he had an excuse to visit you.

I missed your breadcrumb but I’m terrible at breadcrumbs. And I think they’re unreliable. I know Madge likes to breadcrumb and I almost never catch them. There was a game where I was trying to signal LaserGuy that I was the motivator and I ended up using the word motivator at least twice. And Laser didn’t catch it.

[AdumbroDeus]

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Bonus bark!

damnit, wanted to talk about one more thing with you.

I think that seven's theory was right, they were trying to kill otherscum to get their NK.

I just got home and I’m not planning on being awake for too long.

My perfect mafia recall is failing me. I will need to look through Seven’s posts because I don’t recall this theory. But except for Triss’s power their other powers don’t really help them identify the other scum team. I still think that George may have been able to kill if he used his ability on the right target, maybe this is how they could kill other mafia.

I can look for it, but I know for a fact I'd never heard of that possibility before this game and somebody else proposed it. I'm 90% sure it was Seven.

It's the classic doc/cop combination, so it's not just offense, it's also defense.

Anyway, as far as my theory for why (don't expect a useful answer from Somi for obvious reasons) is, I'm pretty sure I was the obvious NK target the night Seven died, but by demanding Somi confirm their power on me I made it so it would bring attention to Somi if I died.

Or it would be the perfect opportunity to kill you because if somi was tracked, he had an excuse to visit you.

Ya, but that would inevitably draw attention to Somi which was what they seemed to be trying to avoid. That's really my thesis, I don't think killing seven and then killing me or JC makes sense unless that was the motivation.

I missed your breadcrumb but I’m terrible at breadcrumbs. And I think they’re unreliable. I know Madge likes to breadcrumb and I almost never catch them. There was a game where I was trying to signal LaserGuy that I was the motivator and I ended up using the word motivator at least twice. And Laser didn’t catch it.

Honestly it was more so people could reconstruct it after the fact if I died without being able to claim.

Also I decided against doing what I had planned because it really would've needed more time and attention and getting a good period would be hard til the weekend, which meant withholding my results and probably stagnating the game at this point.

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[AdumbroDeus]

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Ok, here's the interaction where Seven mentioned both not necessarily having kills simultaneously and the humans specifically not having the kill at that point: viewtopic.php?p=52543#p52543

I thought Seven proposed they had to kill the other team to gain the NK as one possibility, but on further reflection I think I theorized that from what Seven told me about both not having kills because the team so far looked designed to defend against and identify otherscum.

I think it's the best explanation, but since the Humans are dead they're never gaining a NK or winning anyway so it's moot.

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[moody7277]

No it’s because of my night results. If there were exactly one scum from each of two teams in my target group, I should have an inconclusive result, not “scum wins”. With JC flipping town and Mak being the last human, Laser is probably not scum.

If it's 2-1 going into night, scum kills, it's 1-1 which leads to no elim, and scum wins.

[madge]

Votals:
Nobody is voting

Night 5 starts at 7pm on Saturday the 4th of November (UTC+8/China time), or in about 47 hours

Please note another different than normal deadline. I might not call it on time - might be an hour or two late. Sabrar might call it, though.

With 5 people alive, it’s 3 to vote off.

[LaserGuy]

We were discussing Gluelock on EGW specifically and I was confused what they meant because we were positive the humans didn't have kills. They clarified it as what people would assume alignment indicative.

@Adum and LaserGuy, then what do you think is their win condition and how do they achieve it?

It's possible that the setup is something like Jungle Republic, which has 2 killing mafia and 3 non-killing mafia, but the non-killing mafia has a different sort of wincon that is easier (I think basically their wincon is checked at the end of day, so if they have a majority at any point, they win even if their numbers would be reduced in the night). That's an open setup though; might be kind of bastardy to have that kind of mechanic in place in a closed setup without mentioning it.

[LaserGuy]

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For clarity, yes, I am claiming that I used Somi's chat cop power on them and found out that they have a chat.

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Spicy. I like it.

[LaserGuy]

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Anyway, as far as my theory for why (don't expect a useful answer from Somi for obvious reasons) is, I'm pretty sure I was the obvious NK target the night Seven died, but by demanding Somi confirm their power on me I made it so it would bring attention to Somi if I died.

So the plan was to let me confirm the power then kill me before I could reveal the results.

This seems plausible to me.

Btw in case anyone was wondering, this is the post I crumbed JC's power: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=917&p=53266&hilit=Spirit#p53266

I actually said "in the spirit of cooperation" to start the message (after system.out.prinln obviously) as a breadcrumb to Laser about the post.

I didn't know it was JC's power yet, obviously. Thought GC had a power similar to mine at first and got it from BF, I didn't know JC was the bodyguard power I got until I learned who the last visiter that night was in mass-claims (from laser iirc).

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That was clever, but I'm glad I didn't spend much time searching for it because I never would have found it. This is the kind of breadcrumb that I'm terrible at finding.

[LaserGuy]

Bonus bark!

damnit, wanted to talk about one more thing with you.

I think that seven's theory was right, they were trying to kill otherscum to get their NK.

I just got home and I’m not planning on being awake for too long.

My perfect mafia recall is failing me. I will need to look through Seven’s posts because I don’t recall this theory. But except for Triss’s power their other powers don’t really help them identify the other scum team. I still think that George may have been able to kill if he used his ability on the right target, maybe this is how they could kill other mafia.

Yes, Seven did suggest this.

Is that because you are interpreting my perennial default vote on somi the past two Days to be distancing?

No it’s because of my night results. If there were exactly one scum from each of two teams in my target group, I should have an inconclusive result, not “scum wins”. With JC flipping town and Mak being the last human, Laser is probably not scum.

Can you explain exactly how your power works? Is "inconclusive" a possible result? My impression was you basically just get to see "is there at least 1 scum in this group of 3 players"? I don't think having a 3 player endgame should ever give an inconclusive result--in that case either I'm a killer and can win by killing one and endgaming the other, or Mak inherits a kill and can do the same, or somehow Mak endgames us through some other mechanic. Presumably if there were 1 human and 1 townie left, the human has to win... otherwise they basically have no winning potential in any situation.

I missed your breadcrumb but I’m terrible at breadcrumbs. And I think they’re unreliable. I know Madge likes to breadcrumb and I almost never catch them. There was a game where I was trying to signal LaserGuy that I was the motivator and I ended up using the word motivator at least twice. And Laser didn’t catch it.

Well, that might just be a me thing. As I think I said at the time, I'm terrible at subtlety (in fairness to both of us, I don't think at the time I knew what a motivator was--I had to look the name up in this game when I was pondering how Glue could have ended up in the chat--so getting the message through was probably very hard).

[AdumbroDeus]

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For clarity, yes, I am claiming that I used Somi's chat cop power on them and found out that they have a chat.

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Spicy. I like it.

Makes sense why I didn't wanna reveal it immediately right? Didn't want Somi to go into anti-spew before we had more information about their partner.

They did actually check the thread at one point last night, I think they just kind of gave up at this point.

Btw in case anyone was wondering, this is the post I crumbed JC's power: viewtopic.php?f=6&t=917&p=53266&hilit=Spirit#p53266

I actually said "in the spirit of cooperation" to start the message (after system.out.prinln obviously) as a breadcrumb to Laser about the post.

I didn't know it was JC's power yet, obviously. Thought GC had a power similar to mine at first and got it from BF, I didn't know JC was the bodyguard power I got until I learned who the last visiter that night was in mass-claims (from laser iirc).

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That was clever, but I'm glad I didn't spend much time searching for it because I never would have found it. This is the kind of breadcrumb that I'm terrible at finding.

I guess I'll have to be more overt next time I crumb to you. As I mentioned to Bessie, that was more an insurance in case I didn't get to claim. I was hoping nobody would figure it out at the time but with my flip they'd realize it.

But I definitely wanted you to understand what I said in chat, but not quickly enough that if you were mafia and still holding onto your faction's night actions you could figure it out and change targets for kills and/or other powers compensate. So I'll note I need to be more overt.

Talking about getting "three visitors last night" that same day was also a crumb btw. As was expecting to be visited but not getting anyone day 2.

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[somitomi]

They did actually check the thread at one point last night, I think they just kind of gave up at this point.

Yeah, peace out

Vote: somitomi

[AdumbroDeus]

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Anyway, thoughts on possible partners, separating into three posts for ease of reading:

Moody: before toDay it's been mostly based on individual tells of being purely reactive as me and laser talked about before, however this interaction toDay:

Come on, moody, how about a thunderdome?

At this point, that looks like it would be you and LG voting me, me and bessie voting you, and Adum as kingmaker.

This reads like a mummer's farce for our benefit. Granted they've been on each other for days but that's cause Bessie essentially claimed a guilty on at least one of them after glue died and this particular interaction reads as trying to emphasize "omg, look how seperate we are!" More from Somi than moody tbf, but I think Moody's response is still weirdly passive when their primary scum target is saying this.

Conclusion: Most likely partner

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[AdumbroDeus]

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Bessie: two things really stick out to me, first is that the case on Somi is... Well dog poop. If Somi believed Bessie they'd know moody to be scum, therefore the logical step was to confirm Bessie not reinforce what they already knew, a bad case against actual scum could potentially be distance. Secondly, the insistance that Boomfrog didn't protect glue, I understand not immediately picking up the breadcrumb, but when it's shown, idk a resistance to clearing people?

On the other hand, they seem actively excited to solve the game and that they were trying to make scum think they had more shots to absorb a NK makes me feel a lot better about how they said they couldn't use it D1. While there was a middle section that their play felt more akin to their scum games, now it seems much closer to town-Bessie from the games I read.

Conclusion: Possible, but significantly less likely than moody.

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[AdumbroDeus]

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Laserguy: the stuff that irks me with this slot are potentially subtly manipulative stuff like excluding themselves from Zeniba wagon but saying saying that the wagon was likely pure suggests scum is between me and moody rather than that they thought scum was between me and moody, and then there was the D1 wierdness. There's also EGW's death, which TBF their initial voting behavior does read more like "I found the killer" than "I found the doctor". And while moody could've lied about one of their tracks/watches D1 that they were so eager to claim suggests against it.

But Laser's play otherwise has been on point in a way that looks like somebody genuinely solving and particularly their play in our neighborhood gave me that impression. Not to mention they had plenty of opportunity to subtly misrepresent our neighborchat and while I made some clarifications, none of them really seem to come from a manipulative place. Furthermore, nothing really jumps out as potential connections between them and Somi, though I would like to reread both slots when I get a chance just in case I missed something.

I'm concerned I'm being paranoid by not fully trusting Lasergun, but on the other hand I'm worried that I might be substituting my town-radar with "please be town"-radar because I fully believe that if Laser is town and is able to make it into the next day phase, they'll win the game for us.

Conclusion: least likely partner.

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[AdumbroDeus]

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@everyone: btw how good is somi at picking up breadcrumbs

@bessie and Laserguy: same question about moody.

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[AdumbroDeus]

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They did actually check the thread at one point last night, I think they just kind of gave up at this point.

Yeah, peace out

Vote: somitomi

Thanks for confirming in case people doubt me, sorry it had to happen like this.

Based on what I can tell you played a pretty good game. Hope there's no hard feelings.

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[LaserGuy]

They did actually check the thread at one point last night, I think they just kind of gave up at this point.

Yeah, peace out

Vote: somitomi

Well, okay then.

Thanks for confirming in case people doubt me, sorry it had to happen like this.

Based on what I can tell you played a pretty good game. Hope there's no hard feelings.

+1 to this, I think this was a really solid scum game from somi.

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@everyone: btw how good is somi at picking up breadcrumbs

FWIW, breadcrumbs don't come up super commonly here so I think the sample size on almost any player is very small.

That said, for Somi, my experience is he often struggles to keep up with the pace of the game and I think rarely has the time to pore over the thread for things like that. I've scummed with him once or twice before and I don't recall it ever coming up.

@bessie and Laserguy: same question about moody.

Not sure. I don't recall it ever coming up in a significant way with him one way or the other. I've never played scum with him that I can recall, so I'm not super familiar with his process.