HaiLOWEEN 2023: AI apocalypse

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Woof.

You're incorrect here, if you read back the posts it's pretty obvious where they got the impression: viewtopic.php?p=52475#p52475

I am famously bad at catching breadcrumbs. And I rarely use them. The only times I usually try to breadcrumb is by putting confirmed-to-me town at the top of my Woof-Grr lists, and it seems that approach is getting to be well known so less useful.

And I still do not believe BoomFrog died because Gluelock was the actual N1 target.

That's fine, I just think this attack on Seven was wrong and wanted to lay out my thought process.

The key thing to pay attention to is the way she talks to me there and here. The thing about scumbessie is that she takes an antagonistic stance against every comment that the person she is pushing makes. Town bessie finds particular things suspicious and she will point out speculations, but scum bessie finds every thing suspicious about the person she is pushing. Her MO is not to give headway to anything they say.

Hmmm, I'll recheck and compare but I got the impression that she's a little tunnel happy as town and that clouds her judgement.

If Seven’s goal was to help you read me correctly, he would provide a town game where I take an antagonistic stance on every comment my target makes. There’s plenty of examples (unfortunately in the Wayback Machine in the archive).

This is also true if she's tunneling you because of confirmation bias. But since I initially pushed back on the example as incomparable I think it's fair to assume I'm taking it with a grain of salt and comparing with the other games.");

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

I think Bessie's right on EGW. Not sure if my rationale is the same as hers but I'll hold onto my thoughts til after you have all finished questioning each other");

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Code: Select all

Evaluation Complete. 

Output:

Town (7): BoomFrog, Seven, GlueLock, Adumbrodeus, LaserGuy, somitomi, moody
Congruous Indy (1): heuristically_alone

Humans [unable to kill but typically town PRs](3): Zeniba, EGW, bessie
Dissenters [able to kill](2): Makhaira, JC

You can wait until you're finished your interactions here, but I wanna hear why you think Bessie is specifically human.

");

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Also really want to hear more from @Mak

");

[JC_DADDY25]

Actually, Seven, you can clear me off your list of dissenters easily, because I would've killed you already.

[somitomi]

"Observation collapses quantum states."

- El mighty BoomFrog

My dude, you can't just make a handwave at BoomFrog and call it a BoomGambit, you have to draw some conclusions based on how people react. That's the whole point of the exercise

--I'm still not convinced about the existence of 2 scum teams.
--Yet scum was the NK.
--No vig claiming proudly about their kill
--Therefore SK.

What is your theory on the fact that there was only one kill both nights?

Then articulate it poorly. Why would getting more content out of George be anything but good for town?

It wouldn't be, that's the thing. Quite the opposite, getting more from any player is generally useful, that's basically why hammering is considered scummyby default. So pointing this out in response to Mak realising what they've done feels like you're trying to subtly sus Makhaira. Just insinuate that you don't think it was accidental without saying that. With the reveal that you thought EGW was the last human I'm kind of unsure what information you were hoping for and the iffiness gets a little more weight behind it.

The game is solved. I now take my leave.

Aw yeah, this game's got the hits

[JC_DADDY25]

"Observation collapses quantum states."

- El mighty BoomFrog

My dude, you can't just make a handwave at BoomFrog and call it a BoomGambit, you have to draw some conclusions based on how people react. That's the whole point of the exercise

Wait, is that something that is unique to here?

[somitomi]

I went back to look at the votes since we know two humnas, but I don't have the time to think about this now, I'll get back to it later.

D1 votes

Adum - 1 - Moody

Adum - 2 - Moody, Boomfrog
Gluelock - 1 - EGW
EGW - 2 - Makhaira, LaserGuy
Bessie - Adum

Adum - 2 - Moody, Boomfrog
Gluelock - 1 - EGW
EGW - 2 - Makhaira, LaserGuy
Bessie - 1 - Adum
(EGW would die)

Adum - 2 - Moody, Boomfrog
EGW - 2 - Makhaira, LaserGuy
Bessie - 2 - Adum, EGW

Adum - 2 - Moody, Boomfrog
EGW - 2 - Makhaira, LaserGuy
Bessie - 2 - Adum, EGW
Moody - 1 - Zeniba

EGW - 2 - Makhaira, LaserGuy
Moody - 2 - Zeniba, gluelock
Adum - 1 - Boomfrog
Bessie - 1 - EGW
Heury - 1 - Moody
Laserguy - 1 - Adum

EGW - 2 - Makhaira, LaserGuy
Moody - 1 - Zeniba
Adum - 1 - Boomfrog
Bessie - 1 - EGW
Heury - 1 - Moody
Laserguy - 1 - Adum

EGW - 2 - Makhaira, LaserGuy
Laserguy - 2 - Adum, EGW
Heury - 2 - Moody, Zeniba
Adum - 1 - Boomfrog
(still EGW)

Seven - 5 - Bessie, EGW, Boomfrog, Heury, Somi
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
Laserguy - 1 - Adum
Bessie - 1 - LaserGuy
Heury - 1 - moody
EGW- 1 - Gluelock

Seven - 4 - Bessie, EGW, Heury, Somi
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
EGW - 2 - Gluelock, Seven
Laserguy - 1 - Adum
Bessie - 1 - LaserGuy
Heury - 1 - moody

Seven - 4 - Bessie, EGW, Heury, Somi
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
EGW - 3 - Gluelock, LaserGuy, Adum
Heury - 1 - moody.
JC_Daddy - 1 - Seven

Seven - 5 - Bessie, EGW, Heury, Somi, Moody
EGW - 3 - Gluelock, LaserGuy, Adum
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
JC_Daddy - 2 - Seven, Boomfrog

EOD1:
Seven - 4 - Bessie, EGW, Heury, Somi
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
Zeniba - 6 - Boomfrog, Seven, Adum, Moody, LaserGuy, Gluelock

D2 votes

moody - 1 - EGW
EGW - 1- LaserGuy
Heury - 1 - Seven

Laserguy - 2 - EGW, Seven
Seven - 1 - Bessie
Heury - 1 - Laserguy

EOD2:
Heury - 6 - Adum, LaserGuy, Makhaira, moody, Seven, somitomi
Adum - 1 - Heury
LaserGuy - 1 - EGW
Seven - 1 - Bessie

"Observation collapses quantum states."

- El mighty BoomFrog
Wait, is that something that is unique to here?

I don't know how unique it is, but we call them BoomGambit because back on the OG forums Boomfrog had a streak of doing some off-the-wall thing on D1 (like using only the word "woof" in his posts) and then analysing people's reactions to that.
Anyway, my point is that if you did this to observe people's reactions or rule out some possibility, now is the time to share your conclusions (I assume this is what you meant by invoking the spirit of our Lord, BoomFrog), otherwise this was just a random diversion.

[somitomi]

EBWOP:misread who ninja'd me and bunged the quotes again. Proofread your posts, you fool...

Wait, is that something that is unique to here?

I don't know how unique it is, but we call them BoomGambit because back on the OG forums Boomfrog had a streak of doing some off-the-wall thing on D1 (like using only the word "woof" in his posts) and then analysing people's reactions to that.
Anyway, my point is that if Gluelock did this to observe people's reactions or rule out some possibility (I assume this is what they meant by invoking the spirit of our Lord, BoomFrog), now is the time to share their conclusions, otherwise this was just a random diversion.

[Seven]

--I'm still not convinced about the existence of 2 scum teams.
--Yet scum was the NK.
--No vig claiming proudly about their kill
--Therefore SK.

What is your theory on the fact that there was only one kill both nights?

Yeah Moody what the heck. I didn't think of this. You think I'm an SK, yet George protected me last night, our BG is dead. In your 1 scum team model, George's team should have had a kill last night.

[Seven]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but your grand list is incorrect. Good try though.

I believe you, but one day I'm going to do that, dip, and be right and it's going to look really cool

[Seven]

EGW wasn't town so what even point are you making.

Town EGW reevaluates and revises his reads. It would not have been suspicious for EGW to change his moody read, since it is something he could have believably done as town.

This is what Frozen said:

EGW kill makes no sense unless moody is the killer though I guess that could be an easy way to set the slot up given EGWs EOD final post

His point: EGW ended the day with suspicion on moody. EGW died. Therefore the kill points to moody.
Your point: George could have changed his read.

How is that relevant in any sense? He didn't change his read. He ended the day with suss on moody, therefore moody had incentive to kill him.

As an aside (because again it's not relevant): George would not have changed his read even when discussing it with you. He did in fact know that was going to be his last post as he posted after Mak hammered in the same style he did before the Trisscar flip. He was here, fully aware the Day was about to end. Additionally, I discussed it with him over night and could not convince him of town Moody.

To be clear, no I wouldn't. But even if I would, the bolded are in conflict.

How are they in conflict? Both the Wayback Machine and the archive a re difficult to read, and the Wayback machine is incomplete, but you’ve provided examples from the archive on this game so you aren’t against doing so.

You know, this is fair because you didn't know what was in my mind at that point, but I was specifically looking for non-archived games.

The bolded lines here do not seem to show a consistency in thought process. If you believed that the humans were eliminated, why on earth do you think we could have used additional content from George. FoS bessie. Somi is right here, this is off.

Nice of you for providing somitomi with an answer to a question that I asked him.

I’m not explaining the thought process yet, but you’re the one that is in the wrong here. That question to somitomi was important and you blew it.

My bad. Also it's clear you were feeling down yesterday evening. I'd have DMed you about it if I hadn't gained the impression from thread. Hope you're feeling better today.

[Seven]

System.out.println("

Code: Select all

Evaluation Complete. 

Output:

Town (7): BoomFrog, Seven, GlueLock, Adumbrodeus, LaserGuy, somitomi, moody
Congruous Indy (1): heuristically_alone

Humans [unable to kill but typically town PRs](3): Zeniba, EGW, bessie
Dissenters [able to kill](2): Makhaira, JC

You can wait until you're finished your interactions here, but I wanna hear why you think Bessie is specifically human.

");

She could be either or, but her saying that we could have got more info from George seems like a perspective slip of knowing there was a remaining human.

[moody7277]

What is your theory on the fact that there was only one kill both nights?

N1: SK tries to kill BF directly, doesn't know he's protected. Scum does the combo shot by aiming at Glue to trigger BF
N2: SK kills EGW. Scum already know Seven is protected, so the kill is...?

And that is where it finally falls apart, although I'm sure you can see N1 has an issue as well. Other fixes might include a alternating kill, but I don't want to speculate on those due to lack of evidence.

[JC_DADDY25]

So, in looking at whether the loud mechanic has anything that stands out to it, I came across the basic role info on a scum doctor...

In Mafia hands, the Doctor role has an additional, unrelated effect: a Mafia Doctor kills without the use of a gun, and thus a Gunsmith will not see a gun when investigating a Mafia Doctor.

Are we overthinking what's going on?

Could EGW have used his Doctor role to kill BoomFrog? The target of Seven is where I get confused on whether this could work or not, because it says Seven was protected and EGW died. Is there a role that reflects the actin to whoever used it?

unvote: Seven

[JC_DADDY25]

EBWOP

*action*

[LaserGuy]

I took Seven's comment as sarcasm.

Just checking, which comment were you referring to here?

[LaserGuy]

System.out.println("

Uhhh

@madge: Assuming it doesn't also end the game, would it be announced if a team is eliminated?

In the event that a team is eliminated and the game doesn't end, said elimination will be announced.

Well shit.

This does somewhat revive the redirector/SK/potentially vig theory with dissenters as secretly human, but I still really doubt it without an extremely powerful third and with SK we'd have to be ridiculously lucky and mafia would've had to have been rb'd or something with the last two since they are the Doc (though possibly not the only one?). I mean I guess 4 Mafia is possible but we already have one flipped Indy, even if technically town compatible.

This points towards a 7-3-2-1 game. 2 has the NK, 3 gains NK if they eliminate the two and therefore they have the tools to defend against the 2 and identify them.

That's.... a really hard game for town unless scum tears each other apart.

");

I think four aligned mafia is very unlikely. 7-3-2-1 looks plausible but ugly. TBH if someone is a redirector or bus driver and thinks they flipped a kill onto EGW it's probably worthwhile for them to claim.

[LaserGuy]

What did you intend to gain from your counterclaim @Gluelock

Oh, and what made you stop?

"Observation collapses quantum states."

- El mighty BoomFrog

I don't get this at all. Was this some sort of reaction test? Just for the lolz? I don't really feel like there's a scum motivation for this since it's so easily confirmable that it's kind of pointless and just draws attention to you, but I don't really get any sense of a townie motivation out of you for doing it. Just weird.

[LaserGuy]

I have had you as scum since D1. I put that read on the backburner late D1 as I thought you/heury were masons. Now that this is evidently not the case, it seems likely that you are just mafia.

Ok. Who’s my partner(s)?

Most likely EGW and Zeniba. EGW in particular was quite resistant to any of the pushes against you.

If you're in the alt. mafia, then best guess would be you/somi mostly because you seem to be tiptoeing around him a lot this game which is very unusual for you. That said, I don't really think so because somi seems like he's probably just Town.

[LaserGuy]

Code: Select all

Evaluation Complete. 

Output:

Town (7): BoomFrog, Seven, GlueLock, Adumbrodeus, LaserGuy, somitomi, moody
Congruous Indy (1): heuristically_alone

Humans [unable to kill but typically town PRs](3): Zeniba, EGW, bessie
Dissenters [able to kill](2): Makhaira, JC

This seems very plausible to me.

[LaserGuy]

Actually, Seven, you can clear me off your list of dissenters easily, because I would've killed you already.

There isn't really any way for you to demonstrate this so it isn't terribly useful. 'What I would do as scum' posts are usually considered pretty suspect hereabouts.

[LaserGuy]

So, in looking at whether the loud mechanic has anything that stands out to it, I came across the basic role info on a scum doctor...

In Mafia hands, the Doctor role has an additional, unrelated effect: a Mafia Doctor kills without the use of a gun, and thus a Gunsmith will not see a gun when investigating a Mafia Doctor.

Are we overthinking what's going on?

Could EGW have used his Doctor role to kill BoomFrog? The target of Seven is where I get confused on whether this could work or not, because it says Seven was protected and EGW died. Is there a role that reflects the actin to whoever used it?

unvote: Seven

This seems... kinda townie.

[LaserGuy]

Okay, let's assume there's two mafias. M1 and M2 where M1 has the kill and M2 is human.

M1 likely targeted Gluelock N1. So Glue is not M1.
M2 targeted EGW N2 and kill him.
EGW targeted BoomFrog N1 and Seven N2.

Some votals:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

An interesting D1 votal here:
Seven - 5 - Bessie, EGW, Boomfrog, Heury, Somi (L-2)
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
Laserguy - 1 - Adum
Bessie - 1 - LaserGuy
Heury - 1 - moody
EGW- 1 - Gluelock

Another one here:
Seven - 4 - Bessie, EGW, Heury, Somi (E-2)
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
EGW - 3 - Gluelock, LaserGuy, Adum
Heury - 1 - moody.
JC_Daddy - 1 - Seven

Final votes D1 were:
Seven - 4 - Bessie, EGW, Heury, Somi
Moody - 2 - Makhaira, Zeniba
Zeniba - 6 - Boomfrog, Seven, Adum, Moody, LaserGuy, Gluelock
Not voting - JC

Noting that players active EoD1 were: heury, Seven, Adum, Mak, bessie, EGW, BoomFrog, moody, LaserGuy, Gluelock, JC, heury. Not present were and Somi, Zeniba.

Final votes D2 were:
heury - 6 - Adum, LaserGuy, Makhaira, moody, Seven, somitomi
Adum - 1 - heury
LaserGuy - 1 - EGW
Seven - 1 - Bessie

Couple things I think we can safely draw from this.

1. Seven is not M2. On D1, EGW basically camped out the Seven wagon for most of the day. IDK if EGW is known for bussing (he doesn't seem like the type TBH), but regardless, he kept on Seven despite both himself and Zeniba coming up at various points. If Seven were M2, I imagine EGW would have switched to his persistent scumread, moody at some point. Or Seven would have. Incidentally, I don't feel the same logic necessarily clears moody of being M2. Zeniba parking their vote on moody and EGW sussing moody without ever actually voting for him is a plausible scum play. I think EGW's push on moody was a little too strong for them to be scummates, but it's not as clear cut as I would like.

2. JC is not M2. Would be voting EoD1.

3. Gluelock is not M1. Working under the assumption that Boom protected Glue. Though this is interesting if Boom himself was the target.

4. Most likely there is 1 M1 mafia in [Seven, Adum, Moody, LaserGuy, Gluelock] and one in [Mak, bessie, Somi, JC]. If Seven is M1, it's possible another M1 is also in the Zeniba wagon. I think it's unlikely Zeniba wagon was pure Town and M1 would have no reason not to jump on this.

Uh, okay, bessie is really obviously EGW's buddy.
Noting this early push on bessie
Noting EGW moving off bessie to me when I started to scumread her
Pushing me/Seven, defending bessie
Pushing Seven, shielding bessie
Pushing seven, shielding bessie
Shielding bessie
EGW's D1 reads

Town [EGW > Boomfrog > Somitomi > Bessie > Heury > Makhraira | Moody, JC, Zeniba, LaserGuy | Adum > Gluelock > Zen] Scum

Shielding bessie
Shielding bessie
Shielding bessie
EGW shielding bessie. EGW's reasoning for scumreading both myself and Seven here are actually almost identical.
Shielding bessie

His treatment of her slot is completely different from everyone else, and he went out of his way to scumread anyone who was pushing her.

If bessie is indeed M2, that kind of closes of that side of the equation. For M1, we're likely looking at a [Mak, JC], [moody, Mak], or maybe [Seven, moody] type of world.

[LaserGuy]

M2 targeted EGW N2 and kill him.

This should be M1