HaiLOWEEN 2023: AI apocalypse

[somitomi]

ok, forget that, I realise that's also made reduntant by the reveal, so instead let's get back to why you did this in the first place

[Seven]

It wasn’t sarcasm. JC seems to have a tendency to interpret things negatively.

[JC_DADDY25]

It wasn’t sarcasm. JC seems to have a tendency to interpret things negatively.

It's a vibe I'm getting.

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Uhhh

@madge: Assuming it doesn't also end the game, would it be announced if a team is eliminated?

In the event that a team is eliminated and the game doesn't end, said elimination will be announced.

Well shit.

This does somewhat revive the redirector/SK/potentially vig theory with dissenters as secretly human, but I still really doubt it without an extremely powerful third and with SK we'd have to be ridiculously lucky and mafia would've had to have been rb'd or something with the last two since they are the Doc (though possibly not the only one?). I mean I guess 4 Mafia is possible but we already have one flipped Indy, even if technically town compatible.

This points towards a 7-3-2-1 game. 2 has the NK, 3 gains NK if they eliminate the two and therefore they have the tools to defend against the 2 and identify them.

That's.... a really hard game for town unless scum tears each other apart.

");

[JC_DADDY25]

What did you intend to gain from your counterclaim @Gluelock

[JC_DADDY25]

Oh, and what made you stop?

[moody7277]

If I'm remembering correctly, bessie eats this setup spec right up. Think this was mentioned earlier in the game, but recent events are rubbing my nose in the fact that she seems much less interested in it than usual.

[Gluelock]

What did you intend to gain from your counterclaim @Gluelock

Oh, and what made you stop?

"Observation collapses quantum states."

- El mighty BoomFrog

[Seven]

At this point, I'm on board with the scum+SK setup for the game, which means we are likely at 7-1-1. Seven's sarcastic confession in their neighbor chat with EGW is hilarious.

Can you describe in detail what led you to the conclusion of scum+sk setup?

[moody7277]

At this point, I'm on board with the scum+SK setup for the game, which means we are likely at 7-1-1. Seven's sarcastic confession in their neighbor chat with EGW is hilarious.

Can you describe in detail what led you to the conclusion of scum+sk setup?

--I'm still not convinced about the existence of 2 scum teams.
--Yet scum was the NK.
--No vig claiming proudly about their kill
--Therefore SK.

[Seven]

At this point, I'm on board with the scum+SK setup for the game, which means we are likely at 7-1-1. Seven's sarcastic confession in their neighbor chat with EGW is hilarious.

Can you describe in detail what led you to the conclusion of scum+sk setup?

--I'm still not convinced about the existence of 2 scum teams.
--Yet scum was the NK.
--No vig claiming proudly about their kill
--Therefore SK.

The first is what I'd like elaboration on. What was not convincing about two scum teams?

1) We had two flips that flipped humans (scum) rather than say "humans (mafia)" or simply "mafia"
2) The flavor specifically mentions AI dissenters as the anti-town faction

[moody7277]

Zeniba (Susan Calvin) was specifically mentioned as masquerading as an AI to attempt to fit in, I figure the rest of the human mafia would be doing the same, which would fit as the "dissenting" AIs. Also, both scum being humans would blow up your two 2-member theory with one human and one AI because we haven't heard about a team being elimed despite Madge saying so here.

[Seven]

Zeniba (Susan Calvin) was specifically mentioned as masquerading as an AI to attempt to fit in, I figure the rest of the human mafia would be doing the same, which would fit as the "dissenting" AIs. Also, both scum being humans would blow up your two 2-member theory with one human and one AI because we haven't heard about a team being elimed despite Madge saying so here.

With regard to the last point, yes, I'm speaking about prior to Madge's revelation. You haven't addressed the fact that the humans are flipping (scum) and not (mafia). That does not seem significant to you?

[moody7277]

Zeniba (Susan Calvin) was specifically mentioned as masquerading as an AI to attempt to fit in, I figure the rest of the human mafia would be doing the same, which would fit as the "dissenting" AIs. Also, both scum being humans would blow up your two 2-member theory with one human and one AI because we haven't heard about a team being elimed despite Madge saying so here.

With regard to the last point, yes, I'm speaking about prior to Madge's revelation. You haven't addressed the fact that the humans are flipping (scum) and not (mafia). That does not seem significant to you?

Those being synonyms, it's a distinction without a difference.

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Thinking back on it, I think I see what BF meant with EGW legitimately scumhunting.

That doesn't mean he's right about the people being scum but the legitimate scumhunting, the place where town-ranmaru (EGW) of old shined through we can be reasonably confident at least aren't human.

Right now I'm thinking of Seven and gluelock, I wanna look over EGW's interactions again and see if there's anyone else. Which without redirection shenanigans means that gluelock is probably clear, cause it seems hard to believe that their scummate would be so confident in their breadcrumb read that they'd direct a kill at their scummate to hit a bodyguard.

");

[bessie]

Woof.

You're incorrect here, if you read back the posts it's pretty obvious where they got the impression: viewtopic.php?p=52475#p52475

I am famously bad at catching breadcrumbs. And I rarely use them. The only times I usually try to breadcrumb is by putting confirmed-to-me town at the top of my Woof-Grr lists, and it seems that approach is getting to be well known so less useful.

And I still do not believe BoomFrog died because Gluelock was the actual N1 target.

There's also the far more obvious possibilities, PR hunting and otherscum hunting.

Yes I know. This was in response to Mak’s theory that EGW intended to end the day with suspicion on moody. Town EGW continuously reevaluates and revises his reads.

The key thing to pay attention to is the way she talks to me there and here. The thing about scumbessie is that she takes an antagonistic stance against every comment that the person she is pushing makes. Town bessie finds particular things suspicious and she will point out speculations, but scum bessie finds every thing suspicious about the person she is pushing. Her MO is not to give headway to anything they say.

Hmmm, I'll recheck and compare but I got the impression that she's a little tunnel happy as town and that clouds her judgement.

If Seven’s goal was to help you read me correctly, he would provide a town game where I take an antagonistic stance on every comment my target makes. There’s plenty of examples (unfortunately in the Wayback Machine in the archive).

@madge: Assuming it doesn't also end the game, would it be announced if a team is eliminated?

In the event that a team is eliminated and the game doesn't end, said elimination will be announced.

This changes my current evaluations of the setup and the players since my interpretation of the opening post was that this would not be announced.

The Humans have not been eliminated. I will think about this and make another post tonight.

oh jfc I jusst got ninja'd by like a page typing that up and may have just hammered fml

Yeah, unfortunate. We could have used any additional content we could get out of George.

This feels kinda iffy in a way I'm not sure I can articulate well.

Then articulate it poorly. Why would getting more content out of George be anything but good for town?

I have had you as scum since D1. I put that read on the backburner late D1 as I thought you/heury were masons. Now that this is evidently not the case, it seems likely that you are just mafia.

Ok. Who’s my partner(s)?

Lol well, that was fun while it lasted

Explain what you were hoping to achieve with this gambit.

"Observation collapses quantum states."

Not acceptable. Try again.

--I'm still not convinced about the existence of 2 scum teams.
--Yet scum was the NK.
--No vig claiming proudly about their kill
--Therefore SK.

What’s your current town-scum list? Please indicate your candidate for third Human and SK.


Ninja’d.

Those being synonyms, it's a distinction without a difference.

I do not agree. Refer to this post.

[Seven]

Revelation: There is at least one human left alive
Implication: George has at least one more partner

Hypothesis: Adum is human and your (Seven's) initial observations regarding him and George were correct.

Adum has subtly been directing away from EGW throughout the day and there are little interactions earlier in the phase that I can't be arsed to go look for right now that just looked like mafia talking to each other to me. I highly implore you all to look through their interactions yourself and note that Adum is trying to justify not voting for or scumreading George.

Also note that George's recent "scum read" on Adum is the classic contingency read wherein you tie your read on a partner to a towny so that when that person flips town, you can go "well I guess I have to reevaluate my scum read":

Anyway, the reason why I asked about the saltiness, is that I believe that was all scum theatre between Adum and Zen. If Zen flips scum, Adum is scum.

Counter: Adum really seemed to believe in 9-2-2, at a level where fakery just doesn't seem likely. It is possible he's been leading down astray but considering he was the first to mention 9-2-2 in thread, I think it is unlikely.

Evaluation: Adum is not human. Hypothesis rejected.

Hypothesis: somitomi is George's partner.

Somi had an interesting interaction with George near the middle of Day 1 where Georged jumped from one of his scum reads to his top town reads. The read seemed unjustified, and despite having asked about it, I still do not quite understand where it came from.

Additionally, in the early game, somi interacted with a variety of players, but he only asked two players (non-rhetorical/inquisitive) questions: George and Zeniba. This is indicative of buddy distancing.

On your second paragraph, you being new doesn't invalidate the fact that you know your role pm, and will act accordingly, and especially since you posted soon after I posted content. You were lurking while there was a vote on you. Generally newer players will try to act calm or avoid pressure to seem composed, that's my concern with you.

Can you elaborate on how this pertains to Gluelock's alignment or your impression thereof?

@Zeniba: could you summarize your moody read in your own words?

ρ: Incorrect. He asked Laser a question too.

These are my general impressions so far



Vote: bessie

Why is moody so high?

Fine, yes. But does that negate the fact that he spoke two the two flipped humans in that manner? What are the odds that he happened to speak to just the two humans in this manner by chance? Additionally, the question to Laser is reactive, whereas the questions to George and Zeniba were exploratory.

ψ: I don't think there is a difference really. Each of the questions were asking about a specific read.

Fine, just let me finish. I remember he also didn't seem to address the fact that Seven kept defending him. But I'm looking at that initial read list again and it's still so good. Was it necessary for partner!somi to put George so low at this point? I don't think so. He could have safely had him in the null group. Ok I've also gotten to a point in his ISO where he is having a back and forth with George about Seven. George seems to be trying to convince somi here of scum!Sev and Somi seems to be demonstrating genuine thoughts. I will stop the ISO here.

An additional thing though is that I don't think human somi would have felt the need to bring up the redirector/PGO idea. It would just point a spotlight on him if it were true.

ξ: key part of that is if it were true

Yeah but if somi is human he still wouldn't know if it were or not.

ξ: mmm fair

Evaluation: Somi is unlikely human. Hypothesis rejected.

[moody7277]

Quick and dirty version

Town
LaserGuy
Bessie*
Adum

Somitomi
Gluelock
0
JC
Seven (SK)
Makhaira (3rd human)

Scum

*Seven's basically fried my read of bessie for this game, so I am reverting. If I somehow screw over town because of it, apologies in advance.

[Seven]

There's also the far more obvious possibilities, PR hunting and otherscum hunting.

Yes I know. This was in response to Mak’s theory that EGW intended to end the day with suspicion on moody. Town EGW continuously reevaluates and revises his reads.

EGW wasn't town so what even point are you making.

If Seven’s goal was to help you read me correctly, he would provide a town game where I take an antagonistic stance on every comment my target makes. There’s plenty of examples (unfortunately in the Wayback Machine in the archive).

To be clear, no I wouldn't. But even if I would, the bolded are in conflict.

@madge: Assuming it doesn't also end the game, would it be announced if a team is eliminated?

In the event that a team is eliminated and the game doesn't end, said elimination will be announced.

This changes my current evaluations of the setup and the players since my interpretation of the opening post was that this would not be announced.

The Humans have not been eliminated. I will think about this and make another post tonight.

Yeah, unfortunate. We could have used any additional content we could get out of George.

The bolded lines here do not seem to show a consistency in thought process. If you believed that the humans were eliminated, why on earth do you think we could have used additional content from George. FoS bessie. Somi is right here, this is off.

[Seven]

*Seven's basically fried my read of bessie for this game, so I am reverting. If I somehow screw over town because of it, apologies in advance.

Screen Shot 2023-10-18 at 7.37.41 PM.png (369.75 KiB) Viewed 25494 times

[Seven]

Code: Select all

Evaluation Complete. 

Output:

Town (7): BoomFrog, Seven, GlueLock, Adumbrodeus, LaserGuy, somitomi, moody
Congruous Indy (1): heuristically_alone

Humans [unable to kill but typically town PRs](3): Zeniba, EGW, bessie
Dissenters [able to kill](2): Makhaira, JC

[Seven]

The game is solved. I now take my leave.

[JC_DADDY25]

Sorry to burst your bubble, but your grand list is incorrect. Good try though.

[JC_DADDY25]

Actually, it isn't a nice try. Just another failed attempt to make yourself look like you've got all the answers, when all you've done is twist and post stuff that doesn't always line up with what you're trying to prove.

[bessie]

EGW wasn't town so what even point are you making.

Town EGW reevaluates and revises his reads. It would not have been suspicious for EGW to change his moody read, since it is something he could have believably done as town.

To be clear, no I wouldn't. But even if I would, the bolded are in conflict.

How are they in conflict? Both the Wayback Machine and the archive a re difficult to read, and the Wayback machine is incomplete, but you’ve provided examples from the archive on this game so you aren’t against doing so.

The bolded lines here do not seem to show a consistency in thought process. If you believed that the humans were eliminated, why on earth do you think we could have used additional content from George. FoS bessie. Somi is right here, this is off.

Nice of you for providing somitomi with an answer to a question that I asked him.

I’m not explaining the thought process yet, but you’re the one that is in the wrong here. That question to somitomi was important and you blew it.