HaiLOWEEN 2023: AI apocalypse

[Seven]

@Seven would 2 wolves (Mak and Zen) consolidate together on a wagon like this?

Do you mean Zeniba?

I'll have to think about this.

V҉o҉t҉e҉ ҉f҉o҉r҉ ҉J҉C҉

Yes:

Unofficial votals

Fred (1) : EGW
Court (3) : Prince J, Sabrar, Heury
No Elimination (1) : Fred

Not voting: bessie, somitomi, madge, Court

With 9 alive it tales 5 to eliminate.

Thank youuuu <3

@Blue regarding if scum vote next to each other

[Gluelock]

Do you mean Zeniba?

I'll have to think about this.

V҉o҉t҉e҉ ҉f҉o҉r҉ ҉J҉C҉

Yes:

Thank youuuu <3

@Blue regarding if scum vote next to each other

Case in point, noted, thank you.

[somitomi]

mayonnaise

No, I was meaning exactly that Zeniba would be too hyper aware of what her scumbuddy would be doing in thread. However, in my re-read, I've dropped this in favor of Laser. So I no longer think Zeniba was with Moody, I just think Moody is scum individually (with Laser Associatively) and just going from there.

That's exactly my question though, in this LaserGuy+Moody universe why does Zeniba, who's on the other team go straight for moody's neck?

Only thing is, i dont think she would ever kill Glue night 1. Unless on a team with someone who is insistent and objective (detached) enough to make the kill.

Can somebody tell me where this Gluelock information is coming from? I feel like my files are corrupted

-The wagon on Seven is more likely to contain scum who are working to save Zeniba. There’s a chance of bussing though, like why save a mostly inactive scum-mate?

Zeniba wasn't really on the elim radar when the Seven wagon was riding high though, so whatever the people voting him were doing, it wasn't directed at saving her. A last-minute bus seems more likely, but it's also entirely possible her mate just didn't have time to react. And f we're assuming a 9-2-2 setup, the other two mafiosi are presumably trying to get their rivals eliminated, but they're only marginally more likely to be correct about that than town players. Wagonomics is gonna be weaker than usual here

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.printl("

@Adum

If you’re talking about this post above I was inquiring about sevens read list not actually pairing them together.

Ah, I thought you were suggesting the possibility to seven, not inquiring on their read. My apologies.

");

[Seven]

Gluelock is town and I will die for them.

Bluelock is who was targeted.

@somi in the post I'm quoting here.

You are BoomFrog
You rolled Body Guard
You are known crumbing
You know people will know you were BG after you flip
You don't say the above without explicit intent to indicate who your target was

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

System.out.println("

Bessie seems like shes straight up open wolfing to me. That post where she was encouraging George’s traitor theory. Heury being top town read.

Only thing is, i dont think she would ever kill Glue night 1. Unless on a team with someone who is insistent and objective (detached) enough to make the kill.

Theory: bessie and Adum (dissenters) vs heury and Zeniba (humans)

I took the wording of Boom being protected as he was shielded, not that he was saved. The difference being that the latter implies that he was shielded + targeted. @mods if we are supposed to know, can you tell us which you mean here?

Why do you think the traitor theory is scummy? Why would scum Bessie that's not on a team with scum heury have an incentive to falsely townread heury so strongly?

Why is are you assuming it was Bessie's theoretical team that targeted gluelock instead of Zeniba's? What's your analysis on why I'd want to kill Gluelock and that I'd be able to convince Bessie to follow my lead?

Bluntly I don't think these points work well together and I think you've convinced yourself of Bessie scum and are working backwards to justify it, but I'm interested in your responses.
");

Ran I understand because he was confirmation biasing. Bessie doesn't really make those kinds of reads though. Bessie reads are x action is scummy, person does x, person is scummy. That is, they’re based purely on actions, not underlying motive speculation such as by players like Ran and me.

I suppose it is possible that bessie thinks I’m rambunctious enough to out my whole team in my opening post. But I find it puzzling that she thinks even I would do something so absurd. It seemed like she was goading Ran on.

I find it hard to believe that when referring to themselves as previously being "a setup god" that they don't think about these things. It's also in reaction to scumreading you. They also had laserguy as 4th scummiest in their last wood/grr list.

I agree on EGW and confirmation bias, I wanna make sure I understand your thought process, is this the post you mean by her goading him on? viewtopic.php?p=51970#p51970

With regard to bessie town reading heury strongly, let me ask you this: why is town!bessie reading him so strongly? There was not enough town indicative content by heury for bessie to have such a strong read so early, so that leads me to believe she has outside info about heury. The most straightforward way she has this is if they are masons, but if heury is maf that’s not so.

So in the heury scum theory, bessie either has another connection with heury in some manner that is less straightforward or her read isn’t authentic.

My issue is with your thought process, unless they're on a team together they're only a bit better inherently equipped (via POE) to figure out who otherscum is. It's just as possible for town and scum have a role that allows this.

But also, what's the incentive for Bessie on one scum team to cover for the other scum team?

I think the Bessie read is weird, and I'm interested in her explaining it, but the setup speculation you have here makes sense, you're tunneling the slot and justifying your thoughts after the fact like EGW did.

On that note you had a weird hyper town read on heury as a strong town PR last game day, it's the reason I suggested Zeniba instead of Heury actually. What changed your mind?

As for why the non-human team did the kill, I doubt both teams can kill each night. It’s either the case that one team has no kill, or that the kill alternates between each team each night. For balance purposes, I think because Trisscar was a cop, it’s the non-humans that either started out with or permanently have the kill.

I've never heard of setups where different Mafia teams don't both have kills every day or some other form of removing town (like a cult or idk, a marker *britches and hoes flashbacks*, Indy that game but a theoretical possibility for a Mafia "NK"). It's possible this is a memory failure though.

As for why you would kill gluelock, the same reason anyone would. He’s largely town read.

As for why you in particular would be able to convince bessie, its based on personality traits. Different people have different degrees of deference with different people. You and Mak are the only players I think bessie would let take the reigns on the night kill choice.

Why would I be so invested in killing glueclock that I'd override her though? I also think you're overestimating his town cred last night, which is why I'm wondering if scum picked up the bodyguard BC.

Why do you think me of all people could override Bessie? Also why you so sure she wouldn't want to kill gluelock?

");

[heuristically_alone]

As for why the non-human team did the kill, I doubt both teams can kill each night. It’s either the case that one team has no kill, or that the kill alternates between each team each night. For balance purposes, I think because Trisscar was a cop, it’s the non-humans that either started out with or permanently have the kill.

Yeah.... There were definitely 2 kill actions taken last night. Or do you think the doctor's action is always public?

-the discussion of a 9-2-2 set up is interesting, I think it makes sense for there to be 3 factions: AI, Dissenting AI, and Human. But have we considered the possibility that Zeniba was a lone human? Flavor wise it makes sense that she was working alone and it’s actually 9-3-1.

Zeniba is definitely not a lone human, as mod clarified they were scum, not SK.

I did receive a message implying that heury is human.

Vote: heury

Heury, claim.

Can you elaborate on this?

Yes. My role pm says I'm town, and not human or scum

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Apologies for being a bit scatterbrained, pet medical emergency");

[Gluelock]

@Adum

All good, I hope your pet is okay!!

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Either forgot or missed this, my apologies.

I did receive a message implying that heury is human.

Vote: heury

Heury, claim.

During the night phase? You can ignore my question about what changed your mind. Though I'd appreciate you walking me through the thought process you had last day phase towards Heury.

@Adum

All good, I hope your pet is okay!!

Seems to be now! Thanks!

She's actually my BF's pet, but I was the only person in a position to take care of her unfortunately.

");

[madge]

Votals:
moody - 1 - EGW
EGW - 1- LaserGuy
Heury - 1 - Seven

With 11 players alive, it's 6 to vote off.

Night 2 will start at in about 3 days, 6 hours.

[Seven]

I find it hard to believe that when referring to themselves as previously being "a setup god" that they don't think about these things. It's also in reaction to scumreading you. They also had laserguy as 4th scummiest in their last wood/grr list.

Being a setup god isn't pertinent to thinking that a traitor would contact their team by listing all of them as the team publically in thread. All that would do is a) cause the scum team to kill them, and b) cause the scum team to be outed if the traitor dies. That's what I'm suspicious of her for. She deflected this as a "I wouldn't do this as scum" comment, but it's not -- it's a "why would ANY decent scum do this ever".

I agree on EGW and confirmation bias, I wanna make sure I understand your thought process, is this the post you mean by her goading him on? viewtopic.php?p=51970#p51970

Yes, the setup god line.

My issue is with your thought process, unless they're on a team together they're only a bit better inherently equipped (via POE) to figure out who otherscum is. It's just as possible for town and scum have a role that allows this.

But also, what's the incentive for Bessie on one scum team to cover for the other scum team?

I think the Bessie read is weird, and I'm interested in her explaining it, but the setup speculation you have here makes sense, you're tunneling the slot and justifying your thoughts after the fact like EGW did.

I have no idea where you're getting the idea that the scum team knows who the other scum team from. I working under the presumption that scum!bessie thought heury was town. There was not enough reason to deep Heury so strongly town, so town!bessie only read him that way because she had outside info that he was town (e.g. masons). scum!bessie read him that way because she has TMI. If Heury isn't town then, as you're alluding to, it can only be the latter case: she's on the opposing team and thought he was town.

On that note you had a weird hyper town read on heury as a strong town PR last game day, it's the reason I suggested Zeniba instead of Heury actually. What changed your mind?

I still town read heury. I'm basically just going off the implications that you're a flavor cop that knows heury is human based off results from last night.

Why would I be so invested in killing glueclock that I'd override her though? I also think you're overestimating his town cred last night, which is why I'm wondering if scum picked up the bodyguard BC.

Sure the indirect boom frog kill is possible too. That's one reason why you'd be invested in killing gluelock.

Why do you think me of all people could override Bessie? Also why you so sure she wouldn't want to kill gluelock?

Because he's new to the forum, she wouldn't want to kill him N1. You wouldn't override bessie but she would defer to you if you believed in the kill.

And to be clear, this is just one theory (hypothesis) and not necessarily the one I am most inclined toward. It's just the one I'm entertaining in thread at the moment.

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

I find it hard to believe that when referring to themselves as previously being "a setup god" that they don't think about these things. It's also in reaction to scumreading you. They also had laserguy as 4th scummiest in their last wood/grr list.

Being a setup god isn't pertinent to thinking that a traitor would contact their team by listing all of them as the team publically in thread. All that would do is a) cause the scum team to kill them, and b) cause the scum team to be outed if the traitor dies. That's what I'm suspicious of her for. She deflected this as a "I wouldn't do this as scum" comment, but it's not -- it's a "why would ANY decent scum do this ever".

I think she's tunneling you just as hard as you're tunneling her. I do 100% agree it's silly though.

I agree on EGW and confirmation bias, I wanna make sure I understand your thought process, is this the post you mean by her goading him on? viewtopic.php?p=51970#p51970

Yes, the setup god line.

Yep, I don't think she's goading it, I think she thoughr EGW had a brilliant idea because she's tunneling you too and working backwards.

My issue is with your thought process, unless they're on a team together they're only a bit better inherently equipped (via POE) to figure out who otherscum is. It's just as possible for town and scum have a role that allows this.

But also, what's the incentive for Bessie on one scum team to cover for the other scum team?

I think the Bessie read is weird, and I'm interested in her explaining it, but the setup speculation you have here makes sense, you're tunneling the slot and justifying your thoughts after the fact like EGW did.

I have no idea where you're getting the idea that the scum team knows who the other scum team from. I working under the presumption that scum!bessie thought heury was town. There was not enough reason to deep Heury so strongly town, so town!bessie only read him that way because she had outside info that he was town (e.g. masons). scum!bessie read him that way because she has TMI. If Heury isn't town then, as you're alluding to, it can only be the latter case: she's on the opposing team and thought he was town.

Ok, this makes more sense as a theory.

On that note you had a weird hyper town read on heury as a strong town PR last game day, it's the reason I suggested Zeniba instead of Heury actually. What changed your mind?

I still town read heury. I'm basically just going off the implications that you're a flavor cop that knows heury is human based off results from last night.

? I can confirm that whatever message you received isn't mine. If you think you're reading a BC of me flavor copping Heury, you're wrong. I think they're Zeniba's scummate because of their play around the slot.

I think you misunderstood me tabling the flavor discussion to not shake out roles.

Why would I be so invested in killing glueclock that I'd override her though? I also think you're overestimating his town cred last night, which is why I'm wondering if scum picked up the bodyguard BC.

Sure the indirect boom frog kill is possible too. That's one reason why you'd be invested in killing gluelock.

That doesn't require somebody to override Bessie, that requires either scum Bessie or their partner to figure out the BC. Or you know any other scum possibility.

Why do you think me of all people could override Bessie? Also why you so sure she wouldn't want to kill gluelock?

Because he's new to the forum, she wouldn't want to kill him N1. You wouldn't override bessie but she would defer to you if you believed in the kill.

I think it's a bad assumption to assume that any player in this game would defer to me lol

And to be clear, this is just one theory (hypothesis) and not necessarily the one I am most inclined toward. It's just the one I'm entertaining in thread at the moment.

Which is fair, your thought process isn't quite as ridiculous as it initially seemed, but it's still very clearly working backwards to justify itself.

Also, who'd you neighborhood with?

");

[moody7277]

I think Seven's interpretation of what happened is plausible, it is within BF's ouvre. I'm wondering if there's such a thing as a loud doctor whose targets are announced. Two scum teams is quite a bit of pizzaz for a 13 player game, not ruling it out, it's just a more complicated theory.

Why would I be so invested in killing glueclock that I'd override her though? I also think you're overestimating his town cred last night, which is why I'm wondering if scum picked up the bodyguard BC.

Sure the indirect boom frog kill is possible too. That's one reason why you'd be invested in killing gluelock.

That doesn't require somebody to override Bessie, that requires either scum Bessie or their partner to figure out the BC. Or you know any other scum possibility.

This discussion looks like the theory is scum were trying for a combo shot if they recognized the BC to get to BF if they targeted Gluelock.

[Gluelock]

What's BC?

[JC_DADDY25]

What is BC?

[JC_DADDY25]

What's BC?

Pinch poke, dude.

[Gluelock]

As for why the non-human team did the kill, I doubt both teams can kill each night. It’s either the case that one team has no kill, or that the kill alternates between each team each night. For balance purposes, I think because Trisscar was a cop, it’s the non-humans that either started out with or permanently have the kill.

Yeah.... There were definitely 2 kill actions taken last night. Or do you think the doctor's action is always public?

-the discussion of a 9-2-2 set up is interesting, I think it makes sense for there to be 3 factions: AI, Dissenting AI, and Human. But have we considered the possibility that Zeniba was a lone human? Flavor wise it makes sense that she was working alone and it’s actually 9-3-1.

Zeniba is definitely not a lone human, as mod clarified they were scum, not SK.

I did receive a message implying that heury is human.

Vote: heury

Heury, claim.

Can you elaborate on this?

Yes. My role pm says I'm town, and not human or scum

Maybe I'm nitpicking here, but just looking at this linguistically, your first two statements,

1. Yeah.... There were definitely 2 kill actions taken last night. Or do you think the doctor's action is always public?
2. Zeniba is definitely not a lone human, as mod clarified they were scum, not SK.

These both have very confident language being repeated. You're definitely sure there were 2 kill actions, and you're definitely sure theres more than 1 human.

Compare that to:

3. Yes. My role pm says I'm town, and not human or scum

This is lacking that confidence exuding jargon from your first two statements. Why not "My role pm says I'm definitely town, and not human or scum."? Ironically, you should be the most confident about this; the other two are reliant on conjecture but you ought to know your assigned role. Normally, I wouldn't even think about something like this, but it's a pattern that is really standing out to me. Does anyone else think I'm just grasping at straws here or is there some unconscious linguistic tell at play here?

[Gluelock]

What's BC?

What is BC?

Too funny lol

I guess contractions really are faster?

[moody7277]

BC = the breadcrumb that Seven cited regarding BF guarding Gluelock.

[Seven]

BC = bread crumb

Yes exactly what moody said, I think the doctor is simply loud, which means their target is always announced whether they saved them or not. Theres no indication anywhere that boom frog was shot at twice. Hed still be alive even if that happened.

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.print.ln("

I think Seven's interpretation of what happened is plausible, it is within BF's ouvre. I'm wondering if there's such a thing as a loud doctor whose targets are announced. Two scum teams is quite a bit of pizzaz for a 13 player game, not ruling it out, it's just a more complicated theory.

Why would I be so invested in killing glueclock that I'd override her though? I also think you're overestimating his town cred last night, which is why I'm wondering if scum picked up the bodyguard BC.

Sure the indirect boom frog kill is possible too. That's one reason why you'd be invested in killing gluelock.

That doesn't require somebody to override Bessie, that requires either scum Bessie or their partner to figure out the BC. Or you know any other scum possibility.

This discussion looks like the theory is scum were trying for a combo shot if they recognized the BC to get to BF if they targeted Gluelock.

Yep, that's what I'm thinking. I'm not sure what other good reason there is to target Gluelock.

I don't think we have any way to know if both scumteams have NKs but given I was just introduced to the concept of mafia factions without NKs and rotating NKs maybe other people have ideas. Not given we only know that BF was protected, not saved.

");

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

As for why the non-human team did the kill, I doubt both teams can kill each night. It’s either the case that one team has no kill, or that the kill alternates between each team each night. For balance purposes, I think because Trisscar was a cop, it’s the non-humans that either started out with or permanently have the kill.

Yeah.... There were definitely 2 kill actions taken last night. Or do you think the doctor's action is always public?

-the discussion of a 9-2-2 set up is interesting, I think it makes sense for there to be 3 factions: AI, Dissenting AI, and Human. But have we considered the possibility that Zeniba was a lone human? Flavor wise it makes sense that she was working alone and it’s actually 9-3-1.

Zeniba is definitely not a lone human, as mod clarified they were scum, not SK.

Can you elaborate on this?

Yes. My role pm says I'm town, and not human or scum

Maybe I'm nitpicking here, but just looking at this linguistically, your first two statements,

1. Yeah.... There were definitely 2 kill actions taken last night. Or do you think the doctor's action is always public?
2. Zeniba is definitely not a lone human, as mod clarified they were scum, not SK.

These both have very confident language being repeated. You're definitely sure there were 2 kill actions, and you're definitely sure theres more than 1 human.

Compare that to:

3. Yes. My role pm says I'm town, and not human or scum

This is lacking that confidence exuding jargon from your first two statements. Why not "My role pm says I'm definitely town, and not human or scum."? Ironically, you should be the most confident about this; the other two are reliant on conjecture but you ought to know your assigned role. Normally, I wouldn't even think about something like this, but it's a pattern that is really standing out to me. Does anyone else think I'm just grasping at straws here or is there some unconscious linguistic tell at play here?

I think you're just not reading context.

Seven claimed they got a message that Heury was specifically human (that they attribute to me) and that's what Heury was responding to.

Knowing for a fact that there were two kill actions is more interesting given the mod clarification.

");

[bessie]

BoomFrog was killed in the night. He was G.E.R.T.Y., Bodyguard, aligned with town.

bessie mourning her frog.PNG (433.09 KiB) Viewed 19049 times

Vote: Seven

[bessie]

Daily bark grr.

Setup note: The filp was Zeniba was scum, mafia. She could be indie, with would fit with the flavor.

I have nothing I feel like claiming.

Actually a little surprised I wasn't "visited" last night, wasn't expecting to survive the night phase tbh lol

You may have been guarded by BoomFrog. He recognized that you were a leader, and if town, a good one.

Bessie encouraged it as well as a viable alternative but still preferred Seven. Probably more likely scummate with Zeniba than laserguy but looks less likely from lynch behavior.

When my vote isn’t needed to secure an elim, I prefer to use it to signal my current intent for the following day.

I agree there are likely two scum teams and that the setup is 9-2-2. This puts bessie and heury back on the map then since they are probably pretending to be masons like me and bessie did as scum together in Sumting Sumting mafia.

If you are town, this repetitive speculation of my role is not advantageous to town. But I think you are not town, and you are rolefishing, and you are trying to cause confusion as to my role in the thread by implying that either I claimed this, or that you somehow otherwise know it.

I think this is a game where flavor is taken into account for alignment and roles and I'm basing this on the Zeniba flip, and that likely includes safeclains. I can't speak for boomfrog because I don't know their character so if I'm being stupid and it makes no sense as a bodyguard please feel free to let me know.

But I think we should table this discussion for now. Don't want to shake our more role information that could help scum.

I can’t comment on flavor/alignments because I don’t know any of it so far.
Agree with tabling this until we have more claims/flips.

@Bessie congrats on finally being able to vote somi without feeling guilty about it?

It is D2 so I have no personal restrictions on eliminations.

Madge is very chaotic neutral and loves to throw the kitchen sink into every game. Sabrar does act as a good restraining force so the setup should be reasonably balanced, for some definition of balance.

This is an excellent description of both our mods.

FWIW, Seven considers bussing super suboptimal and almost never does it.

Hari Seldon bussed Peaceful Whale in Newbie New Year.

I was ok with the Mak and BoomFrog observations, I was pinged by the LaserGuy observation. And what pinged me was not because I was suspicious of LaserGuy which I already covered, but if moody was reading carefully, he too should have realized what was wrong with LaserGuy’s post. So it was a ping for what I though may have been just looking for a reason to post.

Can you elaborate more on this?

I will try to get to this later.

Bessie seems like shes straight up open wolfing to me. That post where she was encouraging George’s traitor theory. Heury being top town read

Point to where I did this.

Seven isn’t scum, they’re too wolfy to be a wolf. You can suggest that Seven is intentionally being twtbw as a way of “hiding in plain sight” but that just descends into a wifom situation.

Seven has been deliberately misinterpreting and misrepresenting my content throughout this game. Townies make mistakes, scum make intentional misreads. FoS Gluelock.

Bluntly I don't think these points work well together and I think you've convinced yourself of Bessie scum and are working backwards to justify it,

Can you not think of another reason for Seven’s behavior?

Ran I understand because he was confirmation biasing. Bessie doesn't really make those kinds of reads though. Bessie reads are x action is scummy, person does x, person is scummy. That is, they’re based purely on actions, not underlying motive speculation such as by players like Ran and me.

I like this. I might use it in future to help explain my meta.

I suppose it is possible that bessie thinks I’m rambunctious enough to out my whole team in my opening post. But I find it puzzling that she thinks even I would do something so absurd. It seemed like she was goading Ran on.

Not true. This is a leading statement disguised as, but not based on, fact. Oh, and a “would I do this as scum” statement. -1

Noting the remainder of your post for now.

I find it hard to believe that when referring to themselves as previously being "a setup god" that they don't think about these things. It's also in reaction to scumreading you. They also had laserguy as 4th scummiest in their last wood/grr list.

+1, QFT, etc.

Apologies for being a bit scatterbrained, pet medical emergency

I hope all is well.

sending luv.PNG (194.35 KiB) Viewed 19047 times

More later.