HaiLOWEEN 2023: AI apocalypse

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Ran seems to really believe his theory that im a traitor and the scum team is Adum/Laser/Glue.

So ill need to reconsider ran and dont want to go there anymore. JC all the way.

I think it's more likely they think we giftwrapped them a good mislynch case and are incredibly puzzled why town doesn't agree.

Also, my rationale for why I should die is almost identical to Xaltres' rationale for why you were the best death then. He was right then, he's right now. There's no getting out of a TMI case, not when I'm the clear power player in the game.

I'm a liability in Lylo, scum will now aim for that Lylo, town learns a ton from my lynch.

");

neither boom or i are convinced. More data needed. And if we eliminate scum there wont even be a lylo.

Convince me. I'll probably only be more insightful toMorrow with more info. Unless I get Nk'd, which I'm now doubting.

");

[JC_DADDY25]

Okay, back to reading.

I will say that with where I'm at, EGW's posts seem focused on getting people to believe Gluelock is mafia. I'm not getting that feeling from him, and also noted that I agreed with his feelings of EGW pointing out why he was posting less. Felt like it wasn't needed, and an early excuse he could point back to.

[JC_DADDY25]

Actually, nevermind, i need to drive my daughter back to uni. How much longer until deadline, because this is going to be about a 2-3 hour drive to get there and back?

[bessie]

System.out.println("

Did I read right that Adum is pulling a Vytron?

Whose Vytron?

");

https://web.archive.org/web/20170802234 ... 7&start=80

[somitomi]

I saw the notification for the quote, so I'm writing this pre-catchup:

And Som, who are your biggest townreads right now?

Furthermore, you can wait til Seven responds but please detail your thought process for why you find Seven scummy now.

You and EGW are my top picks at the moment, which is kind of skizophrenic

As for Seven, I don't think I can provide a thought process all the way through, but the seed of my suspicion is that I think the bessie case was not as ironclad as the neatly logical presentation made it seem and it felt like Seven was aware of that and used the format to play down the shakier parts. This was compounded by some amount of kneejerk "don't tell me what to do" reaction to this and just the general contrast between the way EGW engaged with me about Seven vs Seven's reactions to this apparent shift in opinion.

Also, I'm gonna keep these short, because I am sleepy and the finish line literally keeps running away from me as I write this

The only town read I'll go into is moody. Here's the town slip:

You calling it misinformation implies you think Seven is scum, in which case you either think I'm being led down the primrose path or I'm scum and just got my marching orders.

It's what Adum was trying to use as a reason for George being town, the lack of realization that there's no day chat.

Oh, that is a good catch

Can you talk about why?

A lot of his posts in that span were either things I agreed with or things I found rather insightful.

-The argument is not that bessie wouldn't resist voting somi. bessie would indeed resist voting somi if she is town.
-The argument is that bessie would not claim there is a near zero percent chance that she would vote somi
-It's the severity/degree of her statement that I'm scumreading her for. Town bessie would try to work around a potential scum read of somi, but if she was left with no other leads as strong enough alternatives to a scum read of somi, she would vote him for the sake of her wincon
-This is critically exemplified in that Newbie New Year Game I quoted. In that game, town-bessie was tunneled on town-somi, but also found mafia-peaceful whale (newbie) highly suspicious (as did the rest of the thread). Somi ended up claiming a PR so bessie had to abandon her tunnel on him and look for someone else to vote. As much as she wanted to avoid voting out a newbie Peaceful Whale that day, she was still willing to do it because we are playing mafia.

So I gather that it is the "near zero chance" that you have an objection to and honestly, that feels like splitting hairs about phrasing. Would you be this suspiciouf of her if she had said "very low chance" instead?
________
I don't see how eliminating Adum would help us. I'm also not a fan of a JC elim, we'd get absolutely no information out of that, so it'd be another D1 again. Please for the love of god spare me

Right, that's done. I'm gonna go take a shower and then be awake for a little more

[AdumbroDeus]

What I'm saying is it doesn't make sense, if they were distancing before, why would Seven's post then suddenly be taken as marching orders? This kind of read of a scum dynamic, without any scum chat yet, requires Seven to be so reflexively dominant in the scum dynamic that moody would be expected to just sheep them the entire game.

Unless you have a specific post or two you think constituted marching orders of "do this now" and why. I didn't see that with seven's posts but I'd be interested in seeing what you think.

Seven is an aggressive and dominant player. moody is more passive and very good at analyzing and seeing the whole picture. So by your argument it does make sense. Moody is more than capable of a shift (not a sheep) to Seven’s lead.

Marching orders: viewtopic.php?p=51554#p51554
Moody accepting the assignment: viewtopic.php?p=51576#p51576
Me pointing it out: viewtopic.php?p=51579#p51579

Thanks! Just want Somi to post before I declare what I think of your slot.

Vote: AdumbroDeus

This is the wrong move and I know because I’ve been there (wanting to be vindicated for a miselim). No one will follow or possibly even reread your D1 content if you are mis eliminated as town. You will only be micro analyzed if you are scum, or possibly if you are night killed.

I like you and you are currently in my not-mafia pile. And I think not-indie pile too. I guess that means I am town reading you.

If they can't, that's extremely frustrating but then I think I'm gonna be a liability in Lylo. And again, my play tends POE so I can't guarantee when out of the players I've narrowed it down to where we hit scum. So right now I'm leaning towards it still being the best option and convincing the dominant town players to enforce it.

");

[bessie]

Actually, nevermind, i need to drive my daughter back to uni. How much longer until deadline, because this is going to be about a 2-3 hour drive to get there and back?

A little less than 7 hours.

https://www.timeanddate.com/countdown/e ... sive&csz=1

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Woot, Somi posted.

");

[JC_DADDY25]

Awesome

[Seven]

So I gather that it is the "near zero chance" that you have an objection to and honestly, that feels like splitting hairs about phrasing. Would you be this suspiciouf of her if she had said "very low chance" instead?

That's exactly right, I wouldn't have found it suspicious if she said that. It was the phrasing that pinged me.

[Seven]

Okay, back to reading.

I will say that with where I'm at, EGW's posts seem focused on getting people to believe Gluelock is mafia. I'm not getting that feeling from him, and also noted that I agreed with his feelings of EGW pointing out why he was posting less. Felt like it wasn't needed, and an early excuse he could point back to.

JC scum equity 110%.

[Seven]

This is absolutely nothing like how he posted in his town game.

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

k, cards on the table, Bessie versus Seven reads extremely TVT, I think Seven genuinely believes Bessie is making excuses for not playing to a town wincon because they find the difference in phrasing very significant and Bessie genuinely believes that Seven is aggressively misinterpreting her to justify a scum read.

I'll not that so also found the phrasing distinction notable but did clarify it with Bessie and I think she's being genuine that it's the same principal as in Sorc's and I attribute the difference in Sorc's play to the MUCH higher tempo of the game. However BF's read over that difference felt genuine.

I still have more reading of her past games as Sanity checks but I think Bessie joins the strong townreads pile.

Wow, I can make a read this game outside of somebody making a case on me.
");

[EGW]

I think Seven genuinely believes Bessie is making excuses for not playing to a town wincon because they find the difference in phrasing very significant

Very weak argument there.

[EGW]

Your defense of JC is noted.

Why note moody's defense of JC and not Laser's defense of JC?

Because Laser is my scum partner and moody isn't zomfg

Are you actually going to seriously answer Bessie there by the way.

[Gluelock]

Okay, back to reading.

I will say that with where I'm at, EGW's posts seem focused on getting people to believe Gluelock is mafia. I'm not getting that feeling from him, and also noted that I agreed with his feelings of EGW pointing out why he was posting less. Felt like it wasn't needed, and an early excuse he could point back to.

JC scum equity 110%.

I agree with seven on this post, this isn't the voice of JC that I recall from the last game. But I'm assuming there are more than 1 wolf in the game, we shouldn't be killing there today.

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Of course Seven's argument is weak, but I've been gauging their responses and I'm concluding that they genuinely believe it.

Whether it's weak or not is isn't relevant to the person making the read. What matters is that the player believed it and I think Seven earnestly does.");

[EGW]

Whether it's weak or not is isn't relevant to the person making the read. What matters is that the player believed it and I think Seven earnestly does.

I'm saying your argument is weak. Zen did not genuinely believe in his Bessie case.

[Seven]

Okay, back to reading.

I will say that with where I'm at, EGW's posts seem focused on getting people to believe Gluelock is mafia. I'm not getting that feeling from him, and also noted that I agreed with his feelings of EGW pointing out why he was posting less. Felt like it wasn't needed, and an early excuse he could point back to.

JC scum equity 110%.

I agree with seven on this post, this isn't the voice of JC that I recall from the last game. But I'm assuming there are more than 1 wolf in the game, we shouldn't be killing there today.

Why?

[Seven]

New Read List Just Dropped

JC
Makhaira
Zeniba
Moody


Somitomi


Adum
EGW
LaserGuy
Gluelock
Boom
Bessie/heury
Seven

[Gluelock]

@Seven

Because I'm a sympathetic sucker and want JC to have time to post for real. If he flips wolf we will have little to no content to analyze from him, there are other wolves out there we can lynch and learn more from.

[Gluelock]

@Seven

Have you explained that Mak read yet?

[Seven]

JC - Confirmed Wolf
Moody - Defending a wolf
Zeniba - obsession with Moody and doing nothing else
Mak - mistook Zeniba as posting reads when all she was doing was quoting moody's posts

[Seven]

@Seven

Because I'm a sympathetic sucker and want JC to have time to post for real. If he flips wolf we will have little to no content to analyze from him, there are other wolves out there we can lynch and learn more from.

But none of them are being voted for right now, and JC is the only one that's a guaranteed hit. Do you find eliminating a towny to be more valuable?

[EGW]

Moody - Defending a wolf

Why note moody's defense of JC and not Laser's defense of JC?