HaiLOWEEN 2023: AI apocalypse

[moody7277]

@moody did your marching orders post refer to day chat?

The "marching orders" post was supposing a hypothetical situation that Seven was telling me we're going after bessie in thread due to a lack of day chat.

[AdumbroDeus]

System.our.println("

Ok BF and Seven

If you two are really super convinced it's TMI, lynch me now, and treat my townreads as confirmed town when I flip town. Doc protect them even.

I'm dead serious, I'm not letting you throw the game away in Lylo because you're paranoid as fuck. I'm far better at figuring out whose town and doing POE than figuring out whose scum.

");

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Other observation, the BF EGW town case relies BF's TMI case for me. So it's unconvincing and I'm fine with an EGW lynch");

[Seven]

-snip-

• that's super cute, what's the convention about
• I don't think bessie's scum anymore, but ftr I still think her not voting for PW is completely irrelevant to my argument
• I think you're wrong on Ran. I'm aware of the advice he's received, I gave it to him at the end of Millerizer:

  Seven - Thank you for hosting. Critique me please. Interesting setup for sure.

  Your play was great. My only critique is that you formed your readlist around unproven theories about how mafia would interact. There were many alternative reasons for e.g. J's posting, but you made the assumption that he and heury were aligned when you didn't know either of their alignments individually. I do this too for what it's worth. But yeah, my only advice would be to slow down and refrain from needing to have the entire solve at the end of the day based on connections. You should focus more on individual play rather than how people are playing around each other on Day 1.

  The thing you have to understand about Town George though is that he is legitimately physically incapable of doing this, even when he has the motivation to do so. He's received this advice several times, heck six years ago in that thread that Adum linked, yet you've played with George several times since he's received that advice, do you think he has adhered to it? I have hydrad countless times with him, I know how he works. Town Ran has so much town fire that he just can't contain it. You can see that in Sorcerer's. His play here is NOT the same in that game. As Blue said he is very much just using that idea of posting less as a way to cover himself.
  
  Take a look at Ran's scum play in the game Adum linked. His first few posts are almost identical to his approach here.
  

  Vote: Ro Laren

  Votes the new person to the forum, easy target. [Compare: Voting for blue]
  

  1. Why did you copy this format?
  
  2. What gave you this impression?

  Talks about basic things like her post format [Compare: Voting for blue because his numbers intro and then about his flavor/natural format]
  

  No answer.

  Stale verbiage. [Compare: the block of questions from EGW that heury quoted. Stale, few words, punctuated.]
  

  
  Vote: Ro Laren
  
  For viewing and not answering my questions, which helps stagnate the RVS phase.
  
  FOS: Xatres for using his vote on a non-player, which doesn't help us find scum.
  
  Town vibes: Marshy, Adum, Kary
  
  Null vibes: J
  

  Going after the player for thread viewing related reasons. [Compare: preoccupation with Blue being on invisible]
  
  I implore you to read his posts within the context of the thread so you get an idea of the spacing between them. But yeah, this is scum Ran.

[heuristically_alone]

Seven
@EGW: There's is 100% no chance that Seven and Adum are buddies. Seven's case against Adum is the only possible weakness wolf!Adum has in his play. There is no way Seven brings it up when no one else has expressed concern. Throw out all theories that require them to be buddies.

That said, Seven has had two townie moves. One is town reading me for my memory lapse. Scum!Seven could have saved that in his back pocket for later since it looked superficially scummy. His other is claiming the "townslip" about Moody. He thinks he's right (more on that later), but regardless he thinks it's legit. Scum!Seven wouldn't want to give Moody a free confirmed townie card if Moody is town. And scum!Seven wouldn't try to pass off scumbuddy!Moody as town on a slip that he expects me to challenge him on.

You don't think scum seven would call out provable solid town? A town slip looks super towny to catch. Really good scum would want solid town reads.

sorry one more post and I'll try to post less

sorry T_T sorry

I'm kind of annoyed that I clarified very shortly after you asked for clarification ,then when you came back you didn't respond.

This just shows Gluelock has a lack of motivation to actually answer the question.

Bluelock is town and I will die for him

btw I'm a neighborizer, who wants me to target them tonight?

Me me me!

[heuristically_alone]

And he’s the handsomest player in this group.

You remembered

Though a little disappointed, no comment my own read for this game?

[Gluelock]

System.out.println("

@AdumbrodDeus, What do you mean by pre-johns exactly?

Sorry, smashboards term, John was a player who famously made excuses for all their losses so excuses began to be called "Johns" among English speaking players.

But basically I'm asking you why you think it was intended to excuse scummy play before being called out on it, what other possibile reasons it could theoretically hsve, and why you rejected those reasons?

");

Ah 'Johns' is a very community specific term I see. But before I address the question, I'll quickly address the speculation behind why I didn't answer it sooner. And that's an easy one, I simply glossed over the post defining the new terminology. EGW's paranoia, and assumption that I was intentionally avoiding it was one of the townier things I've seen from him.

Anyways for starters, when you ask for alternative explanations that I thought of and reasons for dismissing them, the straightforward answer is just that I didn't explicitly sit down and consider other possible explanations before typing my post. Thats just not how I approach solving.

Now I likely did have some unconscious, intuition based calculations going on, and I'll attempt to retroactively deconstruct the thought process.

So here are a couple reasons that I could figure someone would make an excuse preemptively.

1. They are deviating from their natural town playstyle a bit and want to address it first before others bring it up and read it as scummy. This could either be from actual scum or from town.

• If town (or just not scum), they maybe do this unintentionally and not realize they're making an excuse. Just typing from the heart and that was what came out. -- I reject this because EGW seems like they're too experienced to not realize what they're saying like that. [ /list]
  • If Scum, then its to prevent his change in behavior from being used against him later. -- What I originally posit.
  2. They are attempting to build trust with other players. By openly acknowledging a deviation from their norm, they demonstrate transparency and a willingness to be held accountable.
  • If town (or just not scum) they're trying to signal their town status to others. ( This is the most likely reason if they're town)
  • If Scum, well, I shouldn't have to explain why gaining the trust of town is beneficial for them...
  3. They are trying to avoid accountability. The "pre-john" could be a simple way of deflecting future responsibility away from themselves when the threadstate dictates that they shouldn't intervene (think like of situations where town is about to lynch another townsperson)
  
  1 and 3 are wolfy reasons to me and 2 is a 50/50 WIFOM situation. And remember, it was less sophisticated versions of the above arguments that were likely swirling around in my head at the time and influencing me arriving to the conclusions I did. Hopefully, this helps you understand the calculus behind my intuition.

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Gradually been getting more comfortable with Laser

Other than the three people I'm holding thoughts on to not corrupt responses of, I think scum is between: EGW, Heury, JC, and Z.

The three people I'm holding thoughts on right now are Somi, Bessie, and Gluelock.

If end up deciding the TMI paranoia is too great a risk of a mechanical loss, after I flip those are the ONLY people you're allowed to lynch from. Plus obviously whoever from the "holding reads to not corrupt responses I through in there.

");

[EGW]

The thing you have to understand about Town George though is that he is legitimately physically incapable of doing this, even when he has the motivation to do so.

No, I am capable of it. One time I even got eliminated as town. Whose Mafia Is It Anyway.

[AdumbroDeus]

system.out.println("

System.out.println("

@AdumbrodDeus, What do you mean by pre-johns exactly?

Sorry, smashboards term, John was a player who famously made excuses for all their losses so excuses began to be called "Johns" among English speaking players.

But basically I'm asking you why you think it was intended to excuse scummy play before being called out on it, what other possibile reasons it could theoretically hsve, and why you rejected those reasons?

");

Ah 'Johns' is a very community specific term I see. But before I address the question, I'll quickly address the speculation behind why I didn't answer it sooner. And that's an easy one, I simply glossed over the post defining the new terminology. EGW's paranoia, and assumption that I was intentionally avoiding it was one of the townier things I've seen from him.

Anyways for starters, when you ask for alternative explanations that I thought of and reasons for dismissing them, the straightforward answer is just that I didn't explicitly sit down and consider other possible explanations before typing my post. Thats just not how I approach solving.

Now I likely did have some unconscious, intuition based calculations going on, and I'll attempt to retroactively deconstruct the thought process.

So here are a couple reasons that I could figure someone would make an excuse preemptively.

1. They are deviating from their natural town playstyle a bit and want to address it first before others bring it up and read it as scummy. This could either be from actual scum or from town.

• If town (or just not scum), they maybe do this unintentionally and not realize they're making an excuse. Just typing from the heart and that was what came out. -- I reject this because EGW seems like they're too experienced to not realize what they're saying like that. [ /list]
  • If Scum, then its to prevent his change in behavior from being used against him later. -- What I originally posit.
  2. They are attempting to build trust with other players. By openly acknowledging a deviation from their norm, they demonstrate transparency and a willingness to be held accountable.
  • If town (or just not scum) they're trying to signal their town status to others. ( This is the most likely reason if they're town)
  • If Scum, well, I shouldn't have to explain why gaining the trust of town is beneficial for them...
  3. They are trying to avoid accountability. The "pre-john" could be a simple way of deflecting future responsibility away from themselves when the threadstate dictates that they shouldn't intervene (think like of situations where town is about to lynch another townsperson)
  
  1 and 3 are wolfy reasons to me and 2 is a 50/50 WIFOM situation. And remember, it was less sophisticated versions of the above arguments that were likely swirling around in my head at the time and influencing me arriving to the conclusions I did. Hopefully, this helps you understand the calculus behind my intuition.

Is there any other relevant possible motivations, even if you discounted them? Make sure you've looked back at the post.

");

[AdumbroDeus]

system.out.println("

System.out.println("

If end up deciding the TMI paranoia is too great a risk of a mechanical loss, after I flip those are the ONLY people you're allowed to lynch from. Plus obviously whoever from the "holding reads to not corrupt responses I through in there.

");

underlined should be "throw", not through.

");

[Seven]

The thing you have to understand about Town George though is that he is legitimately physically incapable of doing this, even when he has the motivation to do so.

No, I am capable of it. One time I even got eliminated as town. Whose Mafia Is It Anyway.

?You still scum tho. Vote JC with me.

[Gluelock]

Okay, I need to start getting ready. I'll check back in a couple more times but I won't be here at all in a couple hours. I may peek from phone a bit but not respond to anything. So ask questions now, or if I missed something else you want answered remind me now.

[somitomi]

I'm about to catch up now, I've skimmed things here and there but my brain is mushy, so it might take a while

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Okay, I need to start getting ready. I'll check back in a couple more times but I won't be here at all in a couple hours. I may peek from phone a bit but not respond to anything. So ask questions now, or if I missed something else you want answered remind me now.

Just asked a follow-up here: viewtopic.php?p=52008#p52008

");

[heuristically_alone]

666th post

[EGW]

Seven
@EGW: There's is 100% no chance that Seven and Adum are buddies. Seven's case against Adum is the only possible weakness wolf!Adum has in his play. There is no way Seven brings it up when no one else has expressed concern. Throw out all theories that require them to be buddies.

That said, Seven has had two townie moves. One is town reading me for my memory lapse. Scum!Seven could have saved that in his back pocket for later since it looked superficially scummy. His other is claiming the "townslip" about Moody. He thinks he's right (more on that later), but regardless he thinks it's legit. Scum!Seven wouldn't want to give Moody a free confirmed townie card if Moody is town. And scum!Seven wouldn't try to pass off scumbuddy!Moody as town on a slip that he expects me to challenge him on.

Yet their interaction is weird. Have you thought about the fact that Adum brought up that Zen was salty when referencing his push on himself? I would consider what you say more here if Zen actually seriously believed Adum was scum there, yet he backed off. I personally didn't think the memory lapse seemed scummy, seemed like a mistake especially since overall your actions have been townie so it doesn't make sense for me for anyone to consider pushing that, even Scum. I think that moody townslip is irrelevant because he could change his read down the line if needed, just as he did with Bessie just now.

[EGW]

Wait. If you didn't know who Seven was, how on Earth were you able to interpret this correctly?

Cause I was wrong and thought seven was xivii. New analysis, Zen is salty about a past game.

Xiivi has not played in years, there is no reason for Adum to confuse Seven with this.

[LaserGuy]

Woof good morning! Picking up approximately where I left off.

@anyone can feel free to do it too, give comparably fast moving games where Bessie wasn't in a hydra so I can compare her play to them.
");

The only ones I can think of are in the difficult-to-read archive versions that we have that I linked. Crossover mafia would be the go-to. A game that also highlights the insanity that is BoomFrog.

If you attempt to read this game, I was town for the first part of the game then then my alignment was changed to one of the two mafia teams.

This is the last complete archived game in the Wayback Machine, and this was considered heavy content for xkcd. I was town.
https://web.archive.org/web/20170804225 ... 8ea5266248

Pretty sure you and bessie were both in that game. bessie has been doing this for as long as I can remember, and I know that she did it for at least a little while before I started playing. I find it hard to believe this is the first time this has come to attention.

I replaced into this game. I was in Hawaii for a funeral so had a rough start.

I'm going to say it anyway, and then leave it at that. My thought process was that it's possible Zen is a traitor, and used that opportunity to signal to the scum team. Of course, I'm not going to use that as evidence for those three players being scum, because I can see what Bessie said as a possibility as well. Yet I think it's important I throw that idea out there, especially if Zen flips scum, and we read back on their interactions.

I am so disappointed in myself that I didn’t even consider this. I used to be a setup god.

Ye god I hope these aren't really the votals. 3/4 of my scum reads are on Seven.

And what insights might you glean from this information? Do you think it is likely the entire scum team is voting as a block?

Why is heury so high up? Why is EGW? Why is Adum so low? I'd really love to see some details on this because I have so many questions about the placements here.

My thoughts on heury are similar to his thoughts on me. I see his content is typical of his D1 meta. I don’t see a lot of hesitation in his posts, which I like. I’m not concerned yet about the sloppiness in his responses because in my experiences, he’s sloppier more as town than scum. And he’s the handsomest player in this group.

I started out more suspicious of EGW but I currently have him as town. I feel that at the time of that post, he was making the most effort to understand me.

I think AdumbroDeus is also making an effort to understand me, but what holds me back on putting Adum higher is his insistence that I answer this:

Also, could you give me your thoughts on me vs. Seven, me vs. Laser, and me vs. BF?

This is just not the type of read that is in my skill set do I am sort of lost as to how to go about it.

I think Zeniba is non-town. I feel her content is anti-town.

Seven is mafia and moody is following his cues.

bessie as a player, mafia or town, has property TP
TP is good for town
Therefore bessie is town

His logic is so absurd it's actually quite infuriating.

You are again intentionally misreading heury.

Don't think this fits. Without day talk there's really no way for a scum to assert this kind of priority before the first night without being more obvious in thread unless they're so naturally dominant. In which case, why were they on Seven in the first place? A naturally dominant non-Seven scum giving moody their marching orders would make more sense.

Are you actually suggesting that mafia!moody would not try to distance himself from his mafia partner early in D1? Moody is not a newbie he is a very experienced and excellent player. FoS for this post.

Mafia games for comparison are useful, unfortunately none of the town games are fast enough to figure out if the differences between here and Sorc's make sense.

I appreciate the effort though, guess I'll have to read through the archive which I will definitely work on today.

Maybe try this game: viewtopic.php?p=16141#p16141
I don’t think it meets your overall requirements for a fast moving game as such, but in that game I caught mafia on Page 1 and he deliberately tried to bury me in content through the entire game to discredit me. And it worked.

-The argument is not that bessie wouldn't resist voting somi. bessie would indeed resist voting somi if she is town.
-The argument is that bessie would not claim there is a near zero percent chance that she would vote somi
-It's the severity/degree of her statement that I'm scumreading her for. Town bessie would try to work around a potential scum read of somi, but if she was left with no other leads as strong enough alternatives to a scum read of somi, she would vote him for the sake of her wincon
-This is critically exemplified in that Newbie New Year Game I quoted. In that game, town-bessie was tunneled on town-somi, but also found mafia-peaceful whale (newbie) highly suspicious (as did the rest of the thread). Somi ended up claiming a PR so bessie had to abandon her tunnel on him and look for someone else to vote. As much as she wanted to avoid voting out a newbie Peaceful Whale that day, she was still willing to do it because we are playing mafia.

I’ve already presented proof in this thread that Seven’s own bolded line DID NOT HAPPEN as Seven is portraying it.

viewtopic.php?p=51729#p51729

I did not vote for Peaceful Whale even though I had a scum lean on him. I ended the day with a vote on Madge. There is no way you missed this. You are repeating the same false interpretation to try to bury my explanations and the proof that I presented.

Sorry, quoting the whole thing because I can't easily break it up on my phone. Thanks for your read on heury. That told me what I needed to know.

[LaserGuy]

bessie being town is wearisome for Laser then cause like he's never wrong on her. Maybe it's just the weirdness that comes from bessie-heury's role that is throwing him off?

Certain things tend to ping as scum to me that aren't always. I think I understand the situation now but wasn't going to talk about it at this point for reasons.

[Seven]

George vote for JC
Laser, voye for JC

[EGW]

My vote is staying on Zen.

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Vote: AdumbroDeus

I already PM'd madge explaining that I think this is to my wincon.

A TMI case is sharp, but there's also no way to convince somebody they're being paranoid, the better I play the worse I look.

Scum has every incentive to make sure we end up in Lylo together. Treating my reads as basically confirmed is better for town right now imo.

If I can't even lead a lynch on myself than I'm in full Cassandra era again.

This is not an excuse to not answer outstanding questions Gluelock, Bessie, and Somi.

");

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

My vote is staying on Zen.

You should vote me instead.

");

[EGW]

You should vote me instead.

No. Also, I'm curious on your read that's developing on Gluelock.