HaiLOWEEN 2023: AI apocalypse

[boomfrog]

I'm at the top of page 21 but I'm out of time today. So just a quick post let people know that.

[boomfrog]

@Heury, the reason I tunneled on Adum is that he is dominating the discussion. If he's town he will be a good leader if he's scum we will follow him to doom. So it was important to sort him first.

[boomfrog]

Mafia: Adumbrodeus, LaserGuy, Gluelock

Going to eat food, but Bessie and others, I'd like thoughts on this. Re-posting since it's a new page.

I don't think I can get anything useful from that D1. Even if Seven flipped scum trying to get meaning from that list would be full of wine. Don't obsess over it.

[AdumbroDeus]

system.out.println("

Morning bark!

Sorry Adum I did miss your questions on Page 14. The content level is light for Smashboards or Mafia Universe, but heavy for xkcd.

I think it's played out at this point. Could you give your thoughts on the result? Including moody expansion.

I think that the Mak/BoomFrog interaction will prove to be helpful in determining mafia, perhaps not immediately, but in late game in ways I am not yet able to predict. Not so much for BoomFrog or Mak, but for other players reactions, like LaserGuy and moody.

In regards to moody’s post on Page 3:

Mak getting confused by BF using non-standard language looks honest to me, although them skimming the intro flavor text is a little troubling.

BF is acting like what I remember of old, which right now is comforting, we'll see if that holds up D2 and on. The reason for switching to a serious vote is a pretty good one.

Also I was unknowingly paralleling LaserGuy's reasoning, which terrifies me.

I was ok with the Mak and BoomFrog observations, I was pinged by the LaserGuy observation. And what pinged me was not because I was suspicious of LaserGuy which I already covered, but if moody was reading carefully, he too should have realized what was wrong with LaserGuy’s post. So it was a ping for what I though may have been just looking for a reason to post.

This is along similar lines to my thought process towards it as well, though it reads a bit more like trying to find an excuse to be suspicious of Mak then just posting for posting's sake.

However, given what Seven just pointed out I'm wondering if moody is just not detail oriented.

Acknowledging George’s vote. Boo.

Didn't touch on this earlier, but what's your rationale for making this acknowledgement?

I acknowledged I saw it, and have nothing to say about it at this time, meaning either I don’t have a problem with the reasoning, or I don’t have time to dig in to it. The voter and the other players shouldn’t need to ask me if I saw the vote.

Given it matches what BF said earlier and I have him as a townread I'm just file this under "meta things I wanna talk about in the postgame

Also, could you give me your thoughts on me vs. Seven, me vs. Laser, and me vs. BF?

I don’t really do this type of read, meaning its not my style or in my skill set. I will think about it.

Please do.

The prohibition here does seem stronger than last game and last game you were correct, so I'm asking why. Alternatively, explaining what I misunderstood about your thought process is always an option.

There is no prohibition, it just isn’t likely. I think that describing my reluctance to vote for somitomi with this term is contributing to the misinterpretation of my post. Almost zero is not a prohibition, which is why I said almost zero and not zero. There was no Night 0, so I made the assumption that there were no pre-game night actions that would have outed somitomi as non-town on D1.

Question for you. On this site, the usual elimination is whoever has the most votes at deadline. If somitomi is the clear elimination choice, why would my vote even be necessary?

I had a feeling this was the case but wanted to clarify, phrased in more exaggerated terms but same basic principal as last game. This is less about whether I feel it's necessary and more about whether I think Seven's critique of your meta is correct.

My eyes are absolutely glazing over at the "confirm" discussion. It reads all NAI and a product of a mafia community that's meta has gotten too incestuous that people are actually taking it seriously this late in the game.

This doesn't really move my issues with how distinct your play has been from Sorc's, which laserguy correctly pointed out. I'm still waiting for you to provide me with some games where you were town that were decently fast moving.

@anyone can feel free to do it too, give comparably fast moving games where Bessie wasn't in a hydra so I can compare her play to them.
");

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

EBWOP: specifically town games, town fast moving non-hydra games for Bessie");

[heuristically_alone]

The weird thing about him is his insistence on bessie being town. It makes no sense. I also considered that Somi's "you know me too well", "I'm just trying to bond" lines might have been implying they are Lovers, but I don't think it's so.

Bessie isn't one of my top town reads. It's more of I haven't seen enough evidence yet to convince me otherwise.

I was gonna go back to Seven, but holy smokes, do I have a lot to catch up on

It’s ok buddy, your read is fine where it is. You can ignore George’s prattling.

This is just one of multiple posts where it feels like seven is preparing wifom for his incoming flip.

This seems curated as to not ruffle any feathers and just float along the general consensus. For example, your take on me seems oddly familiar; are these unique thoughts?

I don't think I'm following general consensus. I think I was the first to have a scum lean on boomfrog and I don't remember if I was the first to start being suspicious of laserguy, but one of the first. At the time I switched vote to seven I was already ready to vote just others beat me to it.

[heuristically_alone]

heury - Important Town PR

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

Coming back to the Gluelock/EGW exchange:

It is moving very fast. You know, the second reason why I have been trying to post less is due to this. I realized I was making it harder for everyone else to be able to sort the game. Yet I know that Zen also believes in posting less. I'm not entirely getting the feel that he is trying to restrain himself this game? Also, I'm not entirely sure if the conversation between you and him about the saltiness is very productive. I know that she usually is busy during the week and I personally know that she works a lot, and I know that when she has time to put in the analysis, she will be readable. I think my early read on her was misguided, due to being wrong.

As I'm reading and catching up on the game, I occasionally tilt my head at something I read and think, "Why'd they say that, it just sounds wolfy". Then when I check to see who the OP was its often EGW. I'm trying to restrain myself from tunneling or some weird OMGUS thing but this is becoming a pattern. Wolves are more conscious about how they're perceived, and the unprompted defensiveness in what's underlined above doesn't sit right. In the same line they frame it as a way to help the game, but that's just fishing for brownie points in a way town players don't feel the need to do.

Vote: EGW

What makes you think the underlined line in the post was intended to be pre-johns. Please include other possible purposes and why you rejected them.

");

[Gluelock]

@AdumbrodDeus, What do you mean by pre-johns exactly?

[AdumbroDeus]

System.out.println("

@AdumbrodDeus, What do you mean by pre-johns exactly?

Sorry, smashboards term, John was a player who famously made excuses for all their losses so excuses began to be called "Johns" among English speaking players.

But basically I'm asking you why you think it was intended to excuse scummy play before being called out on it, what other possibile reasons it could theoretically hsve, and why you rejected those reasons?

");

[LaserGuy]

Hey, I'm here but I'm tired and a little tipsy. I'm gonna speedrun through the last 5-6 pages of the thread then try to get some reads out and hopefully everything will be reasonably coherent. No promises though.

[LaserGuy]

I actually PM'd madge to ask for permission to text you because it sounded like you just exited the thread until the weekend was over and had no way to know you wouldn't be back till after deadline.

Also the deadline is midnight EST, so I think it is being set in a US timezone.

");

This feels super townie in theory, but might just be Adum generally being a nice person.

[Seven]

@anyone can feel free to do it too, give comparably fast moving games where Bessie wasn't in a hydra so I can compare her play to them.
");

The only ones I can think of are in the difficult-to-read archive versions that we have that I linked. Crossover mafia would be the go-to. A game that also highlights the insanity that is BoomFrog.

[LaserGuy]

I think Adum's thought process here and here make a lot of sense to me. He seems to be genuinely trying to sort everyone and I think a lot his observations are pretty sharp, his commentary on me notwithstanding. Moving him to Town lean.

[AdumbroDeus]

@laserguy

System.out.println("

I'd probably try to do it for anyone I have outside contact info, but also I'm definitely closer to Mak than anyone else in the game so I'd definitely do it regardless of alignment.

");

[Seven]

I really miss Peaceful Whale. I hope he finds his way back to us.

[Seven]

btw Adum have you read Worm? Seems like it would be up your alley.

I'm procrastinating hard. Have assignment due by midnight

[LaserGuy]

Fact 1: bessie feels bad about constantly tunneling somi and him being a day 1 elimination
Fact 2: bessie has stated an unwillingness to vote somitomi today due to Fact 1

Argument 1
Premise 1: If bessie is town, Fact 1 would not prevent her from voting somi
Supplementary Premise: If somi is not mafia, mafia-bessie would indeed avoid pushing him Day 1 on the basis of Fact 1.

Conclusion 1: bessie is mafia

Argument 2
Premise 2 (conclusion 1): bessie is mafia
Premise 3: If somi is mafia partnered with bessie, it would conflict with bessie's internal ethical compass to use Fact 1 as a reason not to vote somi.

Conclusion 2: somi must not be mafia

--Notes--
Fact 1 has been established prior to this game.
Fact 2 has been established in this game.

Premise 1 is supported by bessie's personality. She values correctness over emotion. Guilt would not be able to prevent her from voting somi if she felt he was scum. It might cause resistance, but not near 0% chance before she has even read/we've gotten into the game.
Premise 2 is provable/falsifiable.
Premise 3 I am not entirely certain on, but I feel it is right. I simply don't think bessie would use real feelings as a game tactic.

I kind of hate applying this sort of logical analysis to reads because, IDK, there's so many factors that could play in that I think all of the premises are a lot shakier than they appear on face value. I think bessie is mafia, but this kind of feels like right conclusion for wrong reason to me. Curious to see if Zen has any supporting arguments as I peruse forward in the thread.

[LaserGuy]

Btw, I encourage everyone new to these forums to use the gojoe thread. Be sure not to read any spoilers, but it's fun to diary your thoughts for the end of the game. Or talk at the spectators.

This!

Double this.

VOTE: Laserguy May not be my final vote, but just in case a third vote comes my way.

I am very skeptical of this vote from heury when his reasoning for voting me was faulty about the outset, but did not seem to affect his read. I don't recall heury acknowledging the discussion around his error on this.

[LaserGuy]

Hello there.

Let us know about how far you've read in the thread. Feel free to throw in reactions to things even if they are from much farther back in the game. just quote something and say, "I've read up to here so far, but this is interesting because...X "

I'm on page 10 now, this post actually, and while it may be that I've been up for 20 hours but quite a bit of things look like pulling at strings to get reactions, but nothings unraveling yet. Jumped from 11 pages to 16 today though, so people are keeping busy.

I hate that JC is just acknowledging how much/little they have read of the thread without actually saying anything about it.

[LaserGuy]

It's not specifically that I find Bessie towny. It's that she's following her typical D1 meta that I can see so don't see any reason to scum read her at this point. She has yet to post a woof grrr list though.

I like the tone in this post, and I agree with the observation. Also you forgot to factor in Adum. Thoughts on him? Also, why do you town read Zen? Really walk me through that one. I want to make sure you get that one right.

Very weirded out that Ran did not acknowledge heury incorrectly attributing his read to me. This is very unRanlike. Buddy vibes.

Heury: made kind of odd reads and somehow all related to bessie. I don't normally do this on D1, but this is kind of an associative read

Then don't. Why would you start this game. His posts this game are mirroring sorcerer mafia where he was town.

Buddy vibes heury/EGW.

I don't based my read off of you on things like whether or not you do confirmation analysis. I think EGW is incorrect that this is alignment indicative for you. As we've discussed before, my way of reading you is usually more related to tone/energy levels + black magic.

Yet you said that my critique wasn't entirely invalid at the time. In what way did you mean this, and how did it factor in to alignment? (Or lack there of)

I thought that bessie had given up confirmation post analysis entirely as I don't recall doing it for some time, but you have a recent counterexample. Nonetheless, I think it is an NAI behaviour for her.

[heuristically_alone]

I probably will re evaluate laser D2. He has many reads I see myself agreeing with.

[LaserGuy]

I didn't think about it too much but I think one factor in me posting a super conforming confirmation was that I thought about bessie's reaction then realized I was over thinking and that might come off as weird so I just decided to conform and be done with it.

I also was affected by the fact that everyone else had stuck to a simple confirmation. (Yes, even the great boomfrog is affected by peer pressure to a degree)

I find it very plausible that there's a handful of players that would choose as mafia to conform to avoid bessie's gaze. LG, Moody, somi, maybe heury, probably me. Looking back LG and Somi confirmed relatively late, so they were probably more influenced by generic pressure which clouds the possibility of being influenced by being scum and self conscious.

Actuality...

(I myself cannot even recall ever seeing it in action, though I do know you have previously stated that you do this).

Obviously you are aware bessie likes to do this and is famous for it. Did you not do it at the start of the game in imitation of her?

No, I've analyzed confirmation posts pre-knowing bessie. It's what gave me a legitimate scum read on Vicarin in Brooklyn 99 mafia.

Pretty sure you and bessie were both in that game. bessie has been doing this for as long as I can remember, and I know that she did it for at least a little while before I started playing. I find it hard to believe this is the first time this has come to attention.

[LaserGuy]

The cake is definitely a lie. As is all that garbage wine.

VOTE: Seven

Just kind of noticing here the heury seems to be jumping opportunistically between players who are being pushed by someone else without really attempting to contribute to the discussion surrounding it. Tempted to just drop a vote on heury here but I'll wait till I do my reads before I vote I think.

[LaserGuy]

@LG and Seven:
Can you tell me your reads of Mak, EGW, Adum and each other?

As of this moment, I have Mak as Town. EGW as scum lean with major scum equity with heury. Adum is probably Town. Thinking about Seven in light of the current discussion; he was Town lean up to this point. All subject to change after full reread later.