Millerizer Mafia - Game Over

[Freddino18]

@Seven: Before I make this post, what happens if the last two left are the Millerizer and the Mafia, with the Mafia being a Miller?

[Sabrar]

Millerizer wins—and all other players lose—if they are alive and the only other players remaining in the game are Millers.

According to rules Millerizer would win.

[Freddino18]

But, also according to the rules, Mafia would win, as they "cannot be eliminated"

[Freddino18]

Actually, that would never happen, as the Cop would force a Millerizer win on the previous day

[Sabrar]

Wins when their faction can no longer be eliminated and no other factions have achieved their win condition.

Mafia would not win.

[Seven]

Mak hasn't been online since I've sent them their role PM and I still haven't heard back from PJ. So until I find a replacement, there is no deadline. You guys are still welcome to eliminate and end the day by majority, however.

@Seven: Before I make this post, what happens if the last two left are the Millerizer and the Mafia, with the Mafia being a Miller?

Millerizer would win and mafia would lose (see Sabrar responses).

[Makhaira]

Hey everyone, just saw that im replacing in today, ill try to get caught up tonight

[Sabrar]

Welcome to the game, glad you're finally here.

[Freddino18]

hell yeah

[Sabrar]

@Seven: Before I make this post, what happens if the last two left are the Millerizer and the Mafia, with the Mafia being a Miller?

So what did you wanted to say and why did it matter who won in a 1-vs-1?

[bessie]

Daily bark!

Hey everyone, just saw that im replacing in today, ill try to get caught up tonight

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@Seven: Before I make this post, what happens if the last two left are the Millerizer and the Mafia, with the Mafia being a Miller?

So what did you wanted to say and why did it matter who won in a 1-vs-1?

I would also be very interested in your answer to this.


I don’t have any updated reads at this time. Makhaira is my current mafia lean. I will update after Makhaira has an opportunity to post.


I do not have an updated read for millerizer but will continue to think about it. My limitation as a player is that I’m only good at hunting for one scum at a time. Those that know me know.

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I can be around later tonight if anyone wants to discuss anything.

[Freddino18]

This towards Madge and Sabrar: I appreciate y'all working together to vote off a townie, but Madge, you DO realize that Sabrar's just going to take the opportunity to NK you, right? Ah, you don't care. So, D1/2, you Millered Bessie and I, and you got Sabrar this Dawn. Because you didn't win, that means that J did not become the Cop, so by voting Makhaira off today, you win. As the Cop, I would like to propose a deal with Sabrar: Help me eliminate Madge, then you can NK me.

@Bessie: Right now, you can either decide the game, or delay that decision to tomorrow, assuming we don't mis-eliminate the last un-Millered person. I don't trust Sabrar to NK Madge, which would lead to you kingmaking D4. Alternatively, you can vote for whoever your Millerizer pick is, and we can possibly end in a 2v1 D4. In that scenario, it will most likely be you and Makhaira, which would be a tough, but still winnable scenario. For the love of God, please trust me on this.

[madge]

I am not the milleriser and if you just said what I think you said then if we don't vote them off today / scum doesn't kill them tonight you've just lost town the game. FFS. like seriously. I LAID IT OUT SUPER CLEAR THAT THE MILLERISER CAN WIN WITH THIS INFO. I know you think I'm the milleriser BUT IS THIS GOING TO HELP US? How does it help????? NOBODY WAS VOTING YOU OUT TODAY ANYWAY

[Makhaira]

Ok game is a little denser than I thought, couldnt get thru a full catchup read but I atleast went thru the setup

So theres 5 of us comprised of 3 factions, 1 millerizer, 1 mafia, 3 town. One of the three town must be the original cop because no one else has flipped cop. If and when the cop dies, assuming we dont get endgamed, another townie will inherit the cop power but that effect will not trigger again

Do we know if millerized people flip as such? Like do we get confirmation a given slot was marked upon their flip, day elim or otherwise?

Freddy appears to be claiming cop above? Am I reading this right?

If anyone feels like being a super kind soul and is willing to compile each EOD and SOD post with final votecounts into a post here that would be super helpful for me to reference during my readthrough

[Makhaira]

Do we know if millerizer targets are notified if they are targeted? Or if only targets that arent immune or millers by default get notified while immune roles/default millers would not? Or if no one is notified in any capacity as to millerizer targeting?

And has anyone made any other PR claims?

[madge]

Somi claimed cop and flipped simple town, and heury flipped simple mafia, so I was under the impression that alignment was the only thing that flipped

[Sabrar]

Cop starts out as a Miller, yes. When cop dies, the back up player that assumes the role also becomes a Town Cop Miller and is informed of this.

However, people that have been millerized by the Millerizer are not informed.

Only alignments are revealed upon death. So a Town Cop Miller will flip simply as Town.

This should have all the answers you wanted.

EOD/SOD posts:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

With 9 alive it took 5 to eliminate.

Court (5): somitomi, Sabrar, madge, heuristically_alone, Prince J
Prince J (1): EGW
No Elimination (1): Fred
Not Voting (2): bessie, Court

Court has been eliminated! He was Town.

It is now Night 1. It ends March 20th, 5 pm PDT.

Please send me any night actions by then. If all night actions are submitted and all players have messaged me for a fast night, the Night will end early.

Day 2 (Dawn) begins!

EGW has died during the Night. He was Town.

With 7 alive it takes 4 to eliminate.

Dawn ends Tuesday, March 21st, 11pm PDT.
Day 2 ends Friday, March 24th, 11 pm PDT.

Alive Players

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

bessie
somitomi
madge
Fred
Sabrar
Heury
Prince J

With 7 alive it took 4 to eliminate.

Heury (4): Prince J, Sabrar, Madge, Fred
Prince J (2): bessie, heuristically_alone
Not Voting (1): somitomi

Heury has been eliminated! He was Mafia.

It is now Night 2. It ends Sunday March 26th, 11 pm PDT.

Please send me any night actions by then. If all night actions are submitted and all players have messaged me for a fast night, the Night will end early.

Day 3 (Dawn) begins!

somitomi has died during the Night. He was Town.

With 5 alive it takes 3 to eliminate.

Not voting (5): bessie, madge, Fred, Sabrar, Prince J

Dawn ends Sunday, March 26th, 11 pm PDT.
Day 3 ends Wednesday, March 29th, 11 pm PDT.

Countdown timers are now both in my sig and at the top of the OP!

I appreciate very much that Fred is trying to solve this 'mechanically' however his conclusions are horrendously wrong and I share Madge's frustration (even if it might be faked).

[Freddino18]

Ok game is a little denser than I thought, couldnt get thru a full catchup read but I atleast went thru the setup

So theres 5 of us comprised of 3 factions, 1 millerizer, 1 mafia, 3 town. One of the three town must be the original cop because no one else has flipped cop. If and when the cop dies, assuming we dont get endgamed, another townie will inherit the cop power but that effect will not trigger again

Do we know if millerized people flip as such? Like do we get confirmation a given slot was marked upon their flip, day elim or otherwise?

Freddy appears to be claiming cop above? Am I reading this right?

If anyone feels like being a super kind soul and is willing to compile each EOD and SOD post with final votecounts into a post here that would be super helpful for me to reference during my readthrough

You only know faction when flipped, and Somi claimed cop and was correct on their claim, which almost confirms, then Somi was killed.

[Freddino18]

I appreciate very much that Fred is trying to solve this 'mechanically' however his conclusions are horrendously wrong and I share Madge's frustration (even if it might be faked).

Do you mind going into more detail on both parts of this? The "horrendously wrong" part and the part about Madge faking?

[Freddino18]

NOBODY WAS VOTING YOU OUT TODAY ANYWAY

Exactly. At this point in the game, as Cop, my next investigation can come up as innocent or guilty. Of the four people left, there is one who has to be guilty and one that has to be innocent, with the rest being either, depending on who has been Millered. If, tonight, I investigate for the Millerizer, and the Millerizer is not NK'd, then the Millerizer would almost certainly win at dawn, making the result useless. If I investigate for Mafia, and the result comes up Guilty, then there's also very little useful information there, because there has been 3 opportunities to make a Miller, and it's statistically unlikely that I am the only Miller right now. If I investigate Makhaira, the result is unlikely to sway Bessie, especially if the result is Guilty.

Knowing that I can't be useful in the night, my only option for usefulness is to reveal early, before votes are in, and try to kill the Millerizer. (btw, I wrote up that previous post before Bessie said she reads for one scum at a time)

[Sabrar]

Do you mind going into more detail on both parts of this? The "horrendously wrong" part and the part about Madge faking?

1. I am Town (hi bessie!). You have presented no reason for me being scum, except for the bit below where you don't even consider that scum has no day-chat so cannot coordinate votes. So your whole argument boils down to 'heury voted after Sabrar so Sabrar must be scum' which is just ridiculous.

This is not taking anything else into account except for general feelings and the rapid dogpiling of Court on D1, paying particular attention to the successive votes of Heury and Sabrar,

2.

I don't trust Sabrar to NK Madge, which would lead to you kingmaking D4.

In your fantasy world where I am Mafia, Madge is Millerizer and everyone besides Makhaira is already a Miller bessie will never get to play Kingmaker because in a 1-1-1 scenario on D4 Millerizer automatically wins. Furthermore with you being outed as Cop the last scum can never leave you alive and kill the suspected Millerizer N3 as that would lead to an automatic Town win.

Knowing that I can't be useful in the night,

You could have been if you think a little more. Our best case scenario was to vote out Millerizer today, Cop getting a check N3 and if Cop's identity is hidden, Mafia kills the wrong target AND Cop gets a non-guilty result then game would be solved immediately. Basically if Millerizer dies either way before D4 then a non-guilty result is extremely useful.

3. If Madge is Millerizer then she's faking being frustrated about your reveal and she's secretly happy because she knows she doesn't have to target you D4. So even if we vote out scum today then because of your reveal Millerizer has a much higher chance to win D4. This is another reason why you shouldn't have said anything.

[madge]

NOBODY WAS VOTING YOU OUT TODAY ANYWAY

Exactly. At this point in the game, as Cop, my next investigation can come up as innocent or guilty. Of the four people left, there is one who has to be guilty and one that has to be innocent, with the rest being either, depending on who has been Millered. If, tonight, I investigate for the Millerizer, and the Millerizer is not NK'd, then the Millerizer would almost certainly win at dawn, making the result useless. If I investigate for Mafia, and the result comes up Guilty, then there's also very little useful information there, because there has been 3 opportunities to make a Miller, and it's statistically unlikely that I am the only Miller right now. If I investigate Makhaira, the result is unlikely to sway Bessie, especially if the result is Guilty.

Knowing that I can't be useful in the night, my only option for usefulness is to reveal early, before votes are in, and try to kill the Millerizer. (btw, I wrote up that previous post before Bessie said she reads for one scum at a time)

What about this case: we vote off mafia now. Tomorrow we have 4 people, cop, 1 miller, 1 non-miller, and milleriser. the milleriser knows who the miller and the cop are. they millerise the non-miller and win. if they didn't know who the cop was, they might have tried to millerise the cop, giving us two opportunities to vote them out

i am really upset and frustrated. i understand how great it feels to "see the matrix" but you haven't, you've just - ughhhh. we have cop playing anti-town plus a lurker being everyone's top scum pick (even mine). not happy, jan!

[bessie]

Woof grr. I can't leave you guys alone for five minutes...

This towards Madge and Sabrar: I appreciate y'all working together to vote off a townie, but Madge, you DO realize that Sabrar's just going to take the opportunity to NK you, right? Ah, you don't care. So, D1/2, you Millered Bessie and I, and you got Sabrar this Dawn. Because you didn't win, that means that J did not become the Cop, so by voting Makhaira off today, you win. As the Cop, I would like to propose a deal with Sabrar: Help me eliminate Madge, then you can NK me.

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Fred, this analysis is only valid (note that I said valid, not correct) if Madge and Sabrar are the two non-town players remaining, which you can’t know even if you are the cop. How are you so sure Makhaira is town? Or me?

@Bessie: Right now, you can either decide the game, or delay that decision to tomorrow, assuming we don't mis-eliminate the last un-Millered person. I don't trust Sabrar to NK Madge, which would lead to you kingmaking D4. Alternatively, you can vote for whoever your Millerizer pick is, and we can possibly end in a 2v1 D4. In that scenario, it will most likely be you and Makhaira, which would be a tough, but still winnable scenario. For the love of God, please trust me on this.

If you had an investigation last night then we can deduce the results from this post. If you didn't you shouldn't be making these assumptions.

Do we know if millerizer targets are notified if they are targeted? Or if only targets that arent immune or millers by default get notified while immune roles/default millers would not? Or if no one is notified in any capacity as to millerizer targeting?

And has anyone made any other PR claims?

Hi Makhaira, this was my summary of the game at the start of Day 3 maybe it will be helpful (at this point Court, EGW, somi flipped town, heury flipped mafia).

bessie’s start of Day 3 Woof-Grr

1. I am Town (hi bessie!).

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I’m kinda at a loss at how to play this. Back later.

[Freddino18]

Fred, this analysis is only valid (note that I said valid, not correct) if Madge and Sabrar are the two non-town players remaining, which you can’t know even if you are the cop. How are you so sure Makhaira is town? Or me?

If there were two Mafia left, we would have seen double night kills, either in the beginning, or last night. Specifically, Mafia would have had a guaranteed win (and we would have had MYLO) if there were two surviving members, either on Day 2 assuming Heury was hitman, or today, assuming he was the Godfather. Because we still have not achieved MYLO, AND the Millerizer hasn't flipped, we have a 3-1-1, not a 2-2-1. 1 scum, 1 neutral, 2 others who are innocent. Who was it that said Sabrar was a hard scum to scrape? It was either you or Somi. I'm not asking you to vote Sabrar today, what I am asking is for you to read back and try to form an opinion on who the Millerizer is.

[Sabrar]

If there were two Mafia left, we would have seen double night kills, either in the beginning, or last night. Specifically, Mafia would have had a guaranteed win (and we would have had MYLO) if there were two surviving members, either on Day 2 assuming Heury was hitman, or today, assuming he was the Godfather. Because we still have not achieved MYLO, AND the Millerizer hasn't flipped, we have a 3-1-1, not a 2-2-1. 1 scum, 1 neutral, 2 others who are innocent.

What the actual fuck is this analysis? There were never any possibility of 2 night kills. We know we started out with 2 Mafia and we know heury was one of them. Of course we are in a 3-1-1 situation and you still haven't answered bessie's question (or mine for that matter) on why you are so sure about Madge and me being the remaining non-town players.