Millerizer Mafia - Game Over

[Seven]

Fast night has been activated. Night 2 will end tonight, Saturday, at 11 pm PST

[Seven]

Day 3 (Dawn) begins!

somitomi has died during the Night. He was Town.

With 5 alive it takes 3 to eliminate.

Not voting (5): bessie, madge, Fred, Sabrar, Prince J

Dawn ends Sunday, March 26th, 11 pm PDT.
Day 3 ends Wednesday, March 29th, 11 pm PDT.

Countdown timers are now both in my sig and at the top of the OP!

[Sabrar]

Yeah, not a huge surprise. Now let's hope the Millarizer didn't get super lucky...

[madge]

Yeah. Nothing has changed for me. Prince J was EGW's scum pick and EGW was right about Heury and is conftown. That said, Somi is of two minds about J, so I'm going to second guess myself like a mofo.

It's 3v1v1 so 3 to vote out, but there are two scum factions that might both be happy to vote a townie out, so a quick hammer is something we have to be aware of.

I'm not comfortable voting anyone yet.

Mafia: if the milleriser wins it's your fault for killing the cop instead of finding the milleriser like I *told you to*.

***NOBODY CLAIM COP TODAY UNLESS YOU ARE ABOUT TO BE VOTED OFF*** (mostly @ Fred who might not know)

[Sabrar]

Okay, let's talk about the Millerizer (Mz for short).

Mz can win D3, D4 or D5, all of them being quite hard to pull off. Mz is always in danger of being voted off or killed at night therefore if the opportunity presents itself, they should try to make it happen asap. somitomi's early reveal meant that it was unlikely that heury would survive until D3 and also that somitomi himself did not need to be millarized. So if Mz targeted successfully D1 and somitomi would not be killed N2 then - assuming heury was indeed Hitman AND scum hits the last townie - D3 all Mz needs to do is to target the last remaining player and win.
I think Madge might be Mz precisely because she practically begged scum not to kill the cop, thereby giving herself the best chance to win early.

[Freddino18]

I did say in my original reads that Madge would make a dangerous mill due to established meta, but are you sure? Also, only faction is being shown upon death, and nothing suggests whether or not a Miller is shown as such upon death. If all three are alive (assuming the Millerizer picked already), then we're currently at a Millerizer MYLO, where we can eliminate anyone but the "clean" person. Our chances are good, at 1 in 5. Other scenarios include an early attempt at the Godfather, and one or two surviving; or, they don't know who the Godfather is and there are 1 or 2 targets remaining. In general, we have a good chance at not losing to the Millerizer today.

[bessie]

somitomi has died during the Night. He was Town.

bessie howling for somitomi.PNG (167.33 KiB) Viewed 904 times

Woof
Court
EGW
somitomi
bessie
Fred
Sabrar
Madge
Prince J
heuristically_alone
Grr

[Freddino18]

Woof
Court
EGW
somitomi
bessie
Fred
Sabrar
Madge
Prince J
heuristically_alone
Grr

Do you mind explaining your reads of us who are still alive?

[Sabrar]

I did say in my original reads that Madge would make a dangerous mill due to established meta, but are you sure?

Of course I'm not sure, it was an impression that I got during D2 while I observed some dubious strategy speculation.

[madge]

If you're talking about me trying to get mafia to target the milleriser, it was because i was afraid of us being in this situation (only i was hoping we'd get info about if millers are dead or not so that's not ideal), so i deliberately slanted my spec - if e.g. Fred is mafia then i'd hope to maybe let us get another night of cop results while they still mean something

paranoid!madge is convinced sabrar is scum and using my slanted spec to get an easy voteoff, because we only need 3 votes today and with two scum it only takes one townie to join the wagon

i'm keen for prince J to post before we get too far down OMGUS though

[bessie]

Do you mind explaining your reads of us who are still alive?

Woof

Court
Provided decent content, and should not have been eliminated. Everyone that voted for him is suspicious.

EGW
Good Day 1 content, townie.

somitomi
Not super townie but he plays similarly regardless alignment and is hard to read. Day 1 hammer was probably a preemptive self-preservation vote. In the past he has had the vote swing to him very late in the day.

bessie
Is bessie. Providing good content and pushing others for reads. Normal Labrador townie meta.

Fred
I like Fred’s end-of-Day-2 content. He didn’t waiver from his decision to vote for heury, even though he had an opening to vote for Prince J. I also don’t believe he is indie because he held his vote for as long as he could, so that we could get more content. He easily could have hammered and made the excuse that he was going to sleep (similar read for end of Day 1).

Sabrar
Not as involved as usual. Could be indie.

Madge
More involved than usual. Could be indie.

Prince J
Still owes me responses from Day 1. Scummy.

heuristically_alone
Heury is always hard to read, because like somitomi, he tends to play similarly regardless of alignment, which for heury is somewhat scummy. I try give him a pass in the early days because I often scum read him.

Grr

i'm thinking.PNG (142.28 KiB) Viewed 882 times

[madge]

i'm more involved than usual but what is usual lol??? I last played in 2021, unless you count when "messie" played a year ago

[Freddino18]

Do you mind explaining your reads of us who are still alive?

Woof

Fred
I like Fred’s end-of-Day-2 content. He didn’t waiver from his decision to vote for heury, even though he had an opening to vote for Prince J. I also don’t believe he is indie because he held his vote for as long as he could, so that we could get more content. He easily could have hammered and made the excuse that he was going to sleep (similar read for end of Day 1).

Sabrar
Not as involved as usual. Could be indie.

Madge
More involved than usual. Could be indie.

Prince J
Still owes me responses from Day 1. Scummy.

Grr

Thanks for the oversimplified reads on those of us who are alive (except me). Are you going to try?

[Freddino18]

the saving grace for us is that mafia needs the milleriser dead, and especially so if they only have one surviving member. so, the mafia will be motivated to prioritise milleriser candidates in their kill lists.

in fact, they should be killing scumreads, because scumreads are most likely to be milleriser.

this was less true when there were two mafioso (as milleriser can't win with godfather alive), but now we'll be down to one soon enough (somi telling truth = heury voted out today, down to one mafia; somi lying = somi voted out tomorrow, down to one mafia), which means that it'll be in mafia's interest to NK the scummiest among us

How did you know that Heury wasn't Millered?

[madge]

I didn't, I assumed it for the sake of my post due to a combination of (mostly) Sabrar giving the 80% likelihood that he wasn't a miller, my explanation that I think it's even higher than 80% (tldr: cop will target scummy people so the prior is higher), and (distant second) the fact that I wanted to present a case for keeping the cop alive by implying that if Heury flips town, I'll be leading the elimination on Somi, so they can hold off on killing him and instead try to kill the milleriser for us.

[Sabrar]

I plan to reread tomorrow and hopefully post some thoughts. Would really like Prince J's promised content by then.

[Seven]

Dawn has ended.

With 5 alive it takes 3 to eliminate.

Not voting (5): bessie, madge, Fred, Sabrar, Prince J

Day 3 ends Wednesday, March 29th, 11 pm PDT.

[bessie]

Thanks for the oversimplified reads on those of us who are alive (except me). Are you going to try?

watch it buddy.PNG (195.9 KiB) Viewed 835 times

I don’t know what you’re talking about Fred. I’ve posted more reads and analysis than anyone else alive. I have regularly posted woof-grr lists so everyone always knows my reads and my position. I have answered every question and concern addressed at me. Prince J has consistently been at the bottom of my reads list since Day 1, two pages before George posted his detailed scum read of Prince J. Since Prince J won’t post any content, I won’t move him from the bottom of my list. Where’s your updated reads? Where is your current woof-grr list? You haven’t done one since Day 1. I suggest that you provide your updated reads and list.

[Freddino18]

Not tonight, but if I wake up early, I'll get started on it.

[Seven]

Prince J has received a loving prod.

[Sabrar]

For this reread I have focused exclusively on players' D1 interaction with heury.

bessie:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

No read is lame.

Correct. All content is important.
Do you have any updated reads?

I see what you're doing and still I must ask. Why does it 'surprise' you that people have interpreted your reads list as such?

It doesn’t surprise me that many are stuck in the mindset that reads must conform to the number of town/scum in the game. I town-read or scum-read based on content, not to fulfill a quota. And I’m always suspicious of reads that seem forced, like the reads are trying to conform to the setup.

Why is this the first time Bessie is hounding on people for misinterpreted her reads list for the first time? Why is it that boomfrog once spoke entirely in woofs for a couple game days? I don't play mafia much anymore so why not try something new? Honestly I'm not putting that much thought into the value of measurement. Mainly just a baseline to distinguish if something pings me or if something seems towny.

+1. Oh, wait.

Vote: Court

This pings me as opportunist. -1

heuristically_alone
More content from heury than usual. He had an early reads list and his content has been light but he does put opinions in his content, not just commentary. I find the timing of his vote for Court suspicious, though he did give a reason. Heury why is Prince J so high on your list?

I like that heury is not avoiding my questions. But I do not think his response is not good reasoning for putting Prince J above Fred on his list.

I might be mistaken but I feel scum!bessie would have tried to interact more with heury and not put them unnecessarily low on her woof-grrr list. Unlikely to be heury's buddy.

Fred:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Heury. Fred. PLEASE.

@freddino can you give us at least at this point some candidates you believe would be desirable to vote?

While EGW is pushing really hard for me, I don't really think that's indicative of alignment. I believe EGW to be highly paranoid, so not necessarily them. I remember Somi as being very talkative in the old forum days, but that has changed significantly on the new forums. Slight Millerizer read on Somi.

HEURY: Likes to quibble, general shitstirrer, pushes for advancement of the game
READ: Non-power town. Definitely a hard read.

This is generally what I would expect from a newbie scum player who didn't receive too much coaching. Not initiating a conversation with their buddy, putting them as town but with a caveat. That first quote looks a bit out-of-place though, not sure if scum!Fred would make it.

heury:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Freddino - asking questions that could've been asked to partner during pregame. +1

Madge - talking like they're the mod. Mods don't care about outcomes, right? +O-o

Bessie - great first post. Already did it's job building traction in the game. +1.1

Prince J - waiting for a kingly post -0.1

I’m always suspicious of reads that seem forced, like the reads are trying to conform to the setup.

Love this.

Updated read on Bessie, very unlikely to be scum partners with sabrar.

Updated read on Prince J, I like the opening posts as they do seem to be honest scum hunting. Not likely to be scum partners with sabrar or Madge.

Also I completely disagree with your assessment of freddino. I don't blame him for wanting to understand the mechanics before starting to look for scum. I also think you're reading too much into some of his jokey mannerisms. -0.5 for an "easy" push. I do agree that getting some actually reads from him would be beneficial in getting a more guaranteed read.

@freddino can you give us at least at this point some candidates you believe would be desirable to vote?

Heury why is Prince J so high on your list?

A beautiful question.

When putting together the reads list I realized I had no solid strong town leads and Prince J was the last one I placed. In the end I decided pretty much everyone else I would vote before prince j. Really on my next reread I should put a focus on Prince J's content.

I'll be at work come deadline but I'll do my best to take my break near deadline.

Mainly interacts with bessie (which feels natural), defends Fred and Prince J, absolutely nothing with Madge.

Madge:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Heury's in my blind spot, I honestly have no opinion. Nothing has stuck out.

And that's all I could find. This in itself could be coming from an honest pov as well as a scum-buddy who doesn't want to force a read. However I think that Madge would have been more self-concious previously and at least tried to create some interaction with heury (unless of course they agreed pre-game not to do that). I should really stop double-thinking myself.

Prince J:

Spoiler (Show/Hide)

Who do you think should go then if you could choose a name?

This gives me even less than for Madge, but then again Prince J didn't really interact with anyone outside of trying to figure out who is who.

Based on this factor alone heury's most likely partner is Fred or Prince J. bessie is the least likely.

[Freddino18]

Didn't wake up early today, going to work soon, so just a couple of mechanical questions.

@Seven: The full title of the cop is Town Cop Miller. Does the cop start out as a Miller? Because Miller is a role addition, is it revealed on death? If the cop doesn't start out as a Miller, is that revealed to a townie if/when the cop dies?

[Freddino18]

edit: revealed to a townie becoming the cop

[Seven]

Didn't wake up early today, going to work soon, so just a couple of mechanical questions.

@Seven: The full title of the cop is Town Cop Miller. Does the cop start out as a Miller? Because Miller is a role addition, is it revealed on death? If the cop doesn't start out as a Miller, is that revealed to a townie if/when the cop dies?

Cop starts out as a Miller, yes. When cop dies, the back up player that assumes the role also becomes a Town Cop Miller and is informed of this.

However, people that have been millerized by the Millerizer are not informed.

Only alignments are revealed upon death. So a Town Cop Miller will flip simply as Town.

[Seven]

Makhaira replaces Prince J effective now. If you guys would like a 24 hour extension, let me know (via pm)!