Millerizer Mafia - Game Over

[heuristically_alone]

There's no reason not to believe somi's claim at this moment. There are a couple other players I'd hoped the millerizer would choose to target. Quite unfortunate.

[Sabrar]

I have a result that's worth prossibly getting killed: Heury is guilty, which means a 50% chance of him being the hitman if I'm not mistaken.

Assuming your claim is true (and it probably is) the chance of heury being Hitman (from a pure mathematical pov) is actually around 80%.
Millerizer had 8 targets D1, 5 of those do not produce an incorrect cop-result on N1 (GF, Hitman, Cop, 2 dead townies). So there is a 37.5% chance that there is both a Hitman and a Millerized townie alive, you have 50% chance to hit the wrong one, meaning an 18.75% chance of your result being wrong.
Now, depending on who the Millerizer is, their previous experience with the players will definitely influence their target, shifting that percentage.

Aside: I have talked about this multiple times in the past, you should not reveal cop-results so early in the day. Suppose heury is scum, now their partner is much less likely to defend him, so you're denying us the opportunity to observe connections. Also, you just gave the Millerizer a big advantage of who to avoid targeting, making them winning on D3 a real possibility.

[madge]

The milleriser copping town is bad in early game and good in lategame. Your claim is very good for us: if Heury flips scum, then anyone who cops guilty from here on in is confirmed town. Ironically enough.

Thank you sabrar for running the numbers.

both a Hitman and a Millerized townie alive, you have 50% chance to hit the wrong one

I'd say the chance of hitting the wrong one is less than 50% because Somi is targeting scumreads, and milleriser isn't necessarily targeting scumreads.

Now, depending on who the Millerizer is, their previous experience with the players will definitely influence their target, shifting that percentage

yes: i don't want to go into detail about milleriser strategy but it comes into this. i think where heury falls on my own personal "is this person likely to have been targeted by the milleriser?" scale is irrelevant for a N1 cop result, but it becomes relevant on future cop results and I will discuss potential milleriser strategy there if and only if it makes sense, which it probably won't

have to confirm that there's no cop counterclaim so let's NOBODY HAMMER until everyone has posted and stated they aren't the cop.

I am voting for Heury in spirit, but not placing an official vote for fear of another early hammer.

I am not the cop, FWIW

[madge]

The milleriser doesn't give a guilty result to the cop, which is both a blessing and a curse.

This was the remark I was responding to at the beginning of my post, sorry

[bessie]

Woof! Sorry for the delay but I just got home!

Why aren't you complaining about the hammer yet? Especially since apparently you were waiting for somi to post before you gave final day thoughts.

Because I had an suspicion as to why somitomi hammered and I wanted to give everyone a chance to speak their mind. Still waiting for Prince J.

Where does you town lean end and where does your scum lean begin?

Scum leans start after the neutral line. I was considering moving Fred, but I’m waiting for him to post.

Is it solely due to the hammer that somi dropped 4 spaces to the bottom of your list?

Yes, I figured he earned the honor of being in the lead for a while.

bessie calling me out on it was just the last straw.

Glad to be of service.

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@Fred, your thoughts on yesterday’s elimination, and on the night kill please. Why do you think mafia decided to kill EGW?

@Prince J, please post your thoughts.


I should be back at my normal bark time tomorrow with my thoughts, and would love to have some reads from Prince J to discuss.

[Freddino18]

Worst case scenario, tomorrow we're on 5 with 2 / 2 / 1 (up to 4 millers because godfather) - or 3/1/1 (up to 5 millers), so in the first case mafia would win if we miselim and in the second the milleriser has won outright (probably not in reality as we're likely to vote out millers and mafia is likely to kill them).

The Millerizer only Mills once per day, at dawn. Currently, assuming the Millerizer was active and that whoever is a Miller is shown as such upon death, there are either two Millers, or one Miller and the Millerizer knows who the Godfather is.

More importantly though, I have a result that's worth prossibly getting killed: Heury is guilty, which means a 50% chance of him being the hitman if I'm not mistaken.

Slightly more than that, there's the chance that the Millerizer got either the Hitman or the Godfather on the first day.

Scum leans start after the neutral line. I was considering moving Fred, but I’m waiting for him to post.

Sorry, missed Dawn entirely (Rough night last night). As for my reaction to EGW, I'm going to do a bit of rereading on EGW's posts before I get into it. Mathematically speaking, my hat's in the ring against Heury. I was planning on doing the statistical analysis anyways, but I didn't end up getting on my computer last night. As for Court's death, almost everyone had said they weren't going to be active when the day was going to end, or had already voted. I was actually still responding to EGW when Somi's vote came in. In fact, we were discussing how EGW was such a tryhard.

[Freddino18]

I think the reason the Mafia eliminated EGW was because he is a tryhard, and finding out that one of his reads was wrong would have set him back to analyzing everything, which might have brought up something the Mafia wanted to hide. Also, if J is Mafia, it could have been an attempt to eliminate a source of information on him. Weird thing is, going back over my notes (I can copy-paste them if anyone wants, currently they're in a Google doc, so they are editable) I see that EGW flipped hard against Heury later in the Day. That sort of reactionary Mafia elimination is usually a bad sign, but

^AAAAAAAA

I hate this. Now suspicious of Somi. Setting up the illusion of a reactionary kill by claiming cop seems pretty big-brained. (Didn't Heury call Somi smoothbrained though? Paraphrasing, btw)

Then you have successfully hoodwinked me. What I admire about you is how open you are with what is on your mind so it's not that you're not cunning enough, it's that I suspect these things thoughts would've passed your mind during pregame with a scum partner and those thoughts cannot be contained.

NVM, misread.

This is fun. Haven't had to think this hard in ages. Pending Somi confirmed cop, I want Heury dead. If he comes up un-Millered Town, killing Somi on day 4 (Can't let the Millerizer get away on Day 3, risk of Day 4 Mill MYLO too high if Heury comes up regular town)

Pre-edit: finishing my thought on the first paragraph: Usually a bad idea, but it could be a partner, or Heury eliminating the greatest perceived threat.

Not sure if it's a good idea for someone to counter-claim cop right now (especially if it's true), unless they were the Godfather (well, actually a bad idea for them too) I guess Millerizer can claim cop without much repercussion, as long as they only claim people they've Millered. If they accidentally Mill and claim the Cop, they instantly die, though.

[Sabrar]

if Heury flips scum, then anyone who cops guilty from here on in is confirmed town. Ironically enough.

This is incorrect. If Hitman is voted out then GF becomes Hitman and will cop guilty.

Pending Somi confirmed cop, I want Heury dead. If he comes up un-Millered Town, killing Somi on day 4 (Can't let the Millerizer get away on Day 3, risk of Day 4 Mill MYLO too high if Heury comes up regular town)

We cannot afford to hunt for Millerizer D3 if heury is incorrectly voted out. Scum will just win N3 and there will be no D4. Therefore in that case we would need scum killing Millerizer either N2 or N3.

I would also like Prince J to give their opinion on current events.

[Freddino18]

Shit. Forgot about that, my Millerizer MYLO scenario presupposes the Hitman dead.

[madge]

thanks for the correction Sabrar - didn't realise Godfather changed when hitman died.

[somitomi]

Did Heury just give up and vanish?

Aside: I have talked about this multiple times in the past, you should not reveal cop-results so early in the day. Suppose heury is scum, now their partner is much less likely to defend him, so you're denying us the opportunity to observe connections. Also, you just gave the Millerizer a big advantage of who to avoid targeting, making them winning on D3 a real possibility.

You'd think I'd be capable of thinking through strategy like this after so many years of mafia and yet here we are.

Yes, I figured he earned the honor of being in the lead for a while.

Yeah, I kinda expected that to happen

Not sure if it's a good idea for someone to counter-claim cop right now (especially if it's true), unless they were the Godfather (well, actually a bad idea for them too) I guess Millerizer can claim cop without much repercussion, as long as they only claim people they've Millered. If they accidentally Mill and claim the Cop, they instantly die, though.

Why are you thinking about whether it's a good idea for Godfather to fake-claim cop?

[Sabrar]

Did Heury just give up and vanish?

That is entirely possible. The "Quite unfortunate" part of his reply might be just his honest frustration about the cop choosing correctly. If George really identified the scum-team then I can see them losing their motivation after getting caught despite killing their biggest target.

[Prince J]

So I have been dealing with MafiaUniverse site being hacked/glitched out as I'm hosting a game on there and was need for most of the day.

I will be around tonight, though I kind of just wanna re-read while acknowledging we are going Heury toDay due to Somi's claim of a guilty and wanna re-check things prior.

[heuristically_alone]

Did Heury just give up and vanish?

What an accusation. Only 4 living players had posted since my post. We were still waiting on everyone's daily posts.
Despite the likelihood of my getting voted off by end of today, I'll still put in my part to get some reads and help town identify the true culprits. Really wanting to see updated reads from prince.

Updated reads list:
More Towny
Heury
Somitomi
Fred
Prince J (dropped due to lack of content thus far)
Bessie
Sabrar
Madge
Less Towny

[bessie]

Woof! Daily bark.

This is fun. Haven't had to think this hard in ages. Pending Somi confirmed cop, I want Heury dead. If he comes up un-Millered Town, killing Somi on day 4 (Can't let the Millerizer get away on Day 3, risk of Day 4 Mill MYLO too high if Heury comes up regular town)

I am curious as to how you plan on killing the Millerizer on Day 3.

So I have been dealing with MafiaUniverse site being hacked/glitched out as I'm hosting a game on there and was need for most of the day.

Thank you for letting us know; I don’t visit the site very often. For anyone that hasn’t checked the site in a while, the MU admins are recommending everyone change their passwords.

I will be around tonight, though I kind of just wanna re-read while acknowledging we are going Heury toDay due to Somi's claim of a guilty and wanna re-check things prior.

I appreciate that you want to do a careful reread, but since you still haven’t given any strong opinions against anyone this entire game I would like you to start with some gut reads and an ordered list. Your reads don’t have to be a work of art, and you can always revise them as you filter through the game content.

Updated reads list:
More Towny
Heury
Somitomi
Fred
Prince J (dropped due to lack of content thus far)
Bessie
Sabrar
Madge
Less Towny

May I have your current Sabrar read, explaining why he is so low on your list?


Looking forward to discussing Prince J's reads with him later tonight!

[heuristically_alone]

Sabrar read is based on his earlier d1 content. I didn't like how he was answering questions before giving the ones needing to answer the opportunity to answer first. Also most of sabrar's content has been more logical and numeric and there's not much (if any) scum hunting going down.

[Freddino18]

Why are you thinking about whether it's a good idea for Godfather to fake-claim cop?

It's where my thoughts led me. Thinking on it more, it would be a great way to split votes. Regardless of who is the real Godfather, someone else claiming cop would instantly have two votes against you (themself and Heury), and, unless they claim someone who is town as being scum, there's only your vote against Heury that's guaranteed. From there, votes are going to be split among you, Heury, and the other claimant, depending on which argument is most compelling to each of the remaining players. With two against you and one against Heury, you'd be the most likely person voted out, and, regardless of the result, the survivor would either die to the mafia tonight or be voted off tomorrow. Ergo, bad idea for Godfather.

I am curious as to how you plan on killing the Millerizer on Day 3.

No clue. Hoping for more evidence at that point, but, as someone else pointed out to me, that might not be the best move with a full surviving Mafia team.

[madge]

the saving grace for us is that mafia needs the milleriser dead, and especially so if they only have one surviving member. so, the mafia will be motivated to prioritise milleriser candidates in their kill lists.

in fact, they should be killing scumreads, because scumreads are most likely to be milleriser.

this was less true when there were two mafioso (as milleriser can't win with godfather alive), but now we'll be down to one soon enough (somi telling truth = heury voted out today, down to one mafia; somi lying = somi voted out tomorrow, down to one mafia), which means that it'll be in mafia's interest to NK the scummiest among us

[somitomi]

It's where my thoughts led me. Thinking on it more, it would be a great way to split votes. Regardless of who is the real Godfather, someone else claiming cop would instantly have two votes against you (themself and Heury), and, unless they claim someone who is town as being scum, there's only your vote against Heury that's guaranteed. From there, votes are going to be split among you, Heury, and the other claimant, depending on which argument is most compelling to each of the remaining players. With two against you and one against Heury, you'd be the most likely person voted out, and, regardless of the result, the survivor would either die to the mafia tonight or be voted off tomorrow. Ergo, bad idea for Godfather.

I am curious as to how you plan on killing the Millerizer on Day 3.

No clue. Hoping for more evidence at that point, but, as someone else pointed out to me, that might not be the best move with a full surviving Mafia team.

This logic doesn't entirely work because of the milleriser (note that Heury hasn't voted me so far), but what I was actually pointing out is how that might look like it's coming from a non-townie mindset.

this was less true when there were two mafioso (as milleriser can't win with godfather alive), but now we'll be down to one soon enough (somi telling truth = heury voted out today, down to one mafia; somi lying = somi voted out tomorrow, down to one mafia), which means that it'll be in mafia's interest to NK the scummiest among us

I know the odds are fairly small, but I'd like to point out that my telling the truth doesn't guarantee that Heury is mafia

[heuristically_alone]

Does Madge not know millerizer's targets returns a Guilty? Madge's "lack" of knowledge is concerning. I do agree that we should be targeting mafia scum right now and hope that mafia hits millerizer.

[Sabrar]

Also most of sabrar's content has been more logical and numeric and there's not much (if any) scum hunting going down.

Did Heury just give up and vanish?

What an accusation. Only 4 living players had posted since my post. We were still waiting on everyone's daily posts.

Do you think the two might be related?
somitomi's reveal basically killed the discussion and we are sill waiting on Prince J's contribution. The mechanical discussion is at least interesting but my modesty forbids me to comment on the quality.

[somitomi]

Do you think the two might be related?
somitomi's reveal basically killed the discussion and we are sill waiting on Prince J's contribution. The mechanical discussion is at least interesting but my modesty forbids me to comment on the quality.

Yeah, sorry. Feel free to chastise me for the remainder of the day

[bessie]

Woof woof woof! Woof? Woof!

Sabrar read is based on his earlier d1 content. I didn't like how he was answering questions before giving the ones needing to answer the opportunity to answer first. Also most of sabrar's content has been more logical and numeric and there's not much (if any) scum hunting going down.

Would you vote for Sabrar? If not, for whom do you plan on voting today?

somitomi's reveal basically killed the discussion and we are sill waiting on Prince J's contribution. The mechanical discussion is at least interesting but my modesty forbids me to comment on the quality.

When did this start????

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Yeah, sorry. Feel free to chastise me for the remainder of the day

Is this offer available only to Sabrar or can we all get in on it??


Ooooh Prince J finally posted!!!! Not really.

Vote: Court

I would like a bit of pressure onto this slot in contention to possibly going toDay.

Ima gonna imitate Prince J try this out.

Vote: Prince J

[madge]

Does Madge not know millerizer's targets returns a Guilty? Madge's "lack" of knowledge is concerning. I do agree that we should be targeting mafia scum right now and hope that mafia hits millerizer.

Sorry, I should have included the case "heury flips miller and we have two scum living and no obvious next target, oh my god life is horrible" - kind of wanted to emphasize to mafia that there's no logical reason for them to not be milleriser-hunting tonight, and i was about to write more on the subject but I'd rather not for what i hope are obvious reasons

[bessie]

Madge, what are your current reads?